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Invoice Connelly
We have heard rather a lot about aggressive stability recently. Nick Saban has been talking about it. Ted Cruz has been talking about it. Folks like me by no means actually cease speaking about it.
All of us virtually definitely have completely different concepts in thoughts once we use that time period, however permit me to current to you a thought experiment: What if each convention have been just like the Massive 12? What if half the video games within the Massive Ten went right down to the wire in a given week? What if Vanderbilt or Mississippi State might randomly win the SEC out of nowhere? What if half the ACC have been nonetheless within the combine for a convention title sport spot in mid-November? That is a world by which I would not thoughts residing.
In 2024, solely two of the 4 energy conferences noticed at the very least 43% of their convention video games determined by one rating: the Massive 12 and the ACC. Solely two had at the very least half their members end inside two video games of the highest of the standings: the Massive 12 and the SEC. And naturally, just one had an out-of-nowhere champion.
Preseason convention ballot rating for eventual 2024 champions
SEC: Georgia (first)
Massive Ten: Oregon (second)
ACC: Clemson (second)
Massive 12: Arizona State (sixteenth)
The highest 5 groups in final season’s preseason Massive 12 media ballot (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona) ended up going a mixed 26-35 general and 13-32 in convention play. Solely Kansas State ended up bowl eligible. In the meantime, the underside 5 groups within the ballot (Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Baylor) went a mixed 39-25 (26-19).
Arizona State was picked sixteenth out of 16 groups with good motive: The Solar Devils had gone simply 3-9 the 12 months earlier than, one sport out of the Pac-12 cellar. An early run of tight wins over mediocre-to-decent groups assured them of a surprisingly strong season, and a late surge introduced them not solely a convention title sport berth but in addition a blowout win over Iowa State in mentioned title sport. They rattling close to beat Texas within the School Soccer Playoff, too. It was an unimaginable rags-to-riches story, one which it appears the Massive 12 is infinitely extra prone to constantly ship shifting ahead.
In response to final 12 months’s extremely inaccurate ballot, the Massive 12 elected to drop the preseason ballot altogether, which is frankly foolish. However concern not: Last year’s Big 12 SP+ projections have been almost as inaccurate! So, we are able to nonetheless make enjoyable of the numbers in just a few extra months, proper? It is time to discuss probably the most unpredictable, splendidly nonsense-heavy energy convention in faculty soccer.
Let’s preview the Massive 12!
Each week by the summer season, Invoice Connelly will preview one other FBS convention, in the end together with all 136 FBS groups. The previews embrace 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Listed below are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC, Indie/Pac-12 and ACC previews.
2024 recap
Certainly, the ultimate 2024 standings have been virtually an entire flip from what was anticipated. And as at all times on this convention, shut video games informed the story.
Arizona State and Iowa State went a mixed 11-3 in one-score finishes final season and due to this fact reached the Massive 12 championship sport. Utah and Kansas went a mixed 2-10 in such video games and surprisingly missed out on bowl bids altogether. Texas Tech nonetheless managed to disappoint a bit regardless of close-game magic — the Crimson Raiders have been 6-1 in one-score video games however solely 2-4 in all others — and though BYU did the very best job of blending general high quality (seventeenth in SP+) and strong close-game efficiency (4-2 in one-scores), late-season losses by 4 factors (to Kansas, of all groups) and 5 factors (to ASU) stored it out of the title sport. And after all of the chaos, ASU hit fifth gear late within the season and genuinely performed like a top-10 staff over its remaining three video games.
Continuity desk
The continuity desk seems to be at every staff’s returning manufacturing ranges (offense, protection and general), the variety of 2024 FBS begins from each returning and incoming gamers and the approximate variety of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? As a result of faculties generally make it very tough to establish who redshirted and who did not.) Continuity is an more and more tough artwork in roster administration, however some groups pull it off higher than others.
Clearly the bar for what constitutes sturdy continuity has shifted fairly massively in recent times, however with eight of the highest 22 groups within the returning manufacturing rankings and the very best returning manufacturing common within the nation, the Massive 12 has extra continuity than every other convention. Seven groups return at the very least 145 of final 12 months’s begins, and 5 introduced in additional than 125 FBS begins from elsewhere.
Arizona State returns many of the causes for final 12 months’s late surge (Cam Skattebo apart), and Texas Tech each returns rather a lot and welcomes one of many nation’s most intriguing switch lessons. However Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona and Utah all boast excessive expertise ranges, and even on the backside of the league, groups like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Colorado are bringing in massive switch hauls that might make them both fairly a bit higher or worse. (Effectively, it in all probability will not make Oklahoma State demonstrably worse — the Cowboys have been fairly dangerous by the tip of 2024.)
2025 projections
With Kansas State ending final season second within the convention in SP+ and having fun with top-15 returning manufacturing ranges, the Wildcats begin out atop the pack. The following six groups are all inside 1.2 factors of one another, and the eighth-ranked staff (Baylor) is simply barely greater than a landing behind Ok-State. Final 12 months, 43% of convention video games have been determined by one rating. I demand 60% or increased this 12 months.
(Notice: These projections are from my May SP+ update, which did not keep in mind recent developments regarding BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff. His future with the staff stays unsure in the mean time, however with out him BYU’s rating would fall to round thirty second, and the Cougars’ common win whole can be minimize by 0.3 to 0.5 video games. That is not as a lot of a drop as I anticipated, truthfully, however hold it in thoughts.)
Eight groups have at the very least a 6% likelihood on the Massive 12 title, and nobody has higher than a 1-in-6 likelihood. And everybody has at the very least a 1-in-50 likelihood. Sure. Deliver it on.
5 finest video games of 2025
Listed below are the 5 convention video games that function (a) the very best mixed SP+ rankings for each groups and (b) a projected scoring margin beneath 10 factors.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin (Aug. 23). This is perhaps my favourite Week 0 sport but. Not solely will we get a Farmageddon matchup in nearly the very best dairy land on this planet, however we additionally get one of many largest video games of the Massive 12 season earlier than Week 1 even rolls round.
TCU at Kansas State (Oct. 11). TCU and Baylor each surged within the late phases of 2024, although not like Arizona State, they every did it when it was too late to make a mark within the convention title race. The Horned Frogs have fairly a little bit of motive for optimism, however by the point this Week 7 matchup is finished, they will have performed at each Arizona State and Ok-State. A convention title run may require a win at one or the opposite.
Texas Tech at Arizona State (Oct. 18). The defending champ in opposition to the offseason’s buzziest staff. The Crimson Raiders took down ASU in Lubbock, Texas, final season 30-22, nevertheless it was properly earlier than the Solar Devils discovered fifth gear. Which staff might be in correct midseason kind for this one?
Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1). It seems the schedule makers decreed Ok-State and Tech to be probably the most impactful groups on this 12 months’s title race — if they do not win it themselves, they will determine who does.
Kansas State at Utah (Nov. 22). One other Ok-State sport! Goodness. Utah went from title favourite to 2-7 in convention play final season, however a redesigned offense and higher harm luck (and the ensuing higher close-games fortune) might produce a 180-degree turnaround. If that’s the case, this one might determine a spot within the title sport.
Convention title (and, due to this fact, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Chris Klieman (seventh 12 months, 48-28 general)
2025 projection: 18th in SP+, 9.0 common wins (6.3 within the Massive 12)
In his first season as Kansas State’s beginning quarterback, Avery Johnson threw for at the very least 250 yards 4 instances and, not together with sacks, rushed for at the very least 80 yards 4 instances. His finest performances have been superior sufficient that, within the Wildcats’ 9 wins, they averaged 37.6 factors per sport. He gave us fairly just a few glimpses of the potential he was imagined to have when he got here to Manhattan as the No. 3 dual-threat QB in the class of 2023 (and considered one of Ok-State’s most celebrated signings in fairly some time).
He additionally had some absolute duds. He threw two picks in three of the Wildcats’ 4 losses. He went 12-for-28 in opposition to Iowa State. For nearly as good as the nice performances have been, Ok-State averaged simply 15.8 factors in its 4 losses, three of which got here in November because the Wildcats tumbled out of the Massive 12 title race.
At this level, we have grown accustomed sufficient to transfers and fast fixes that it is turn into simple to overlook one thing: Johnson’s 2024 is how issues are supposed to go. You are not imagined to arrive within the beginning lineup absolutely fashioned. With former Ok-State starter Will Howard leaving to pilot eventual nationwide champion Ohio State, Klieman’s Wildcats rode with a QB who had large upside and classes to study, and now he has realized a whole lot of these classes. It is arduous to say Johnson is totally going to turn into a dynamite passer — he completed final season with 10 picks and a 58% completion price — however he is a human third-down conversion together with his ft, and he’ll have another thrilling playmakers round him this fall. Working again Dylan Edwards averaged 7.4 yards per carry final season (he rushed for 196 yards in a bowl win over Rutgers), slot receiver Jayce Brown averaged 17.5 yards per catch, and amongst incoming transfers, operating again Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana) rushed for 1,228 yards, receiver Caleb Medford (New Mexico) averaged 18.7 yards per catch, and receiver Jerand Bradley (Boston School/Texas Tech) has averaged 14.0 yards per catch over 4 seasons.
With three starters gone up entrance, Klieman added 4 switch linemen to pair with all-conference middle Sam Hecht, and we’ll see if there are some glitches there. But when the blocking holds up — it normally does at Ok-State — and new offensive coordinator Matt Wells can coax a bit extra consistency out of Johnson, this may very well be a top-10 offense.
The protection has been surprisingly constant beneath coordinator Joe Klanderman, rating between twenty fifth and thirty fourth in defensive SP+ for 4 straight seasons. The Wildcats have been notably aggressive final 12 months, they usually return 4 of the six gamers with at the very least six tackles for loss — ends Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi and linebackers Desmond Purnell and Austin Romaine. Sacks chief Brendan Mott is gone, nevertheless, and if the cross rush regresses, that might add additional pressure for a secondary that bought burned fairly a bit in 2024 and misplaced 4 of final 12 months’s high 5. Senior security VJ Payne (5 run stops, six passes defended) is a keeper, and I am intrigued by West Georgia switch Qua Moss (9 TFLs, 4 passes defended), nevertheless it’s attainable the protection turns into much more all-or-nothing than final 12 months’s.
Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (third 12 months, 14-11 general)
2025 projection: twenty second in SP+, 8.4 common wins (5.7 within the Massive 12)
It was clear from the beginning of 2024 that Arizona State was higher than anticipated. The Solar Devils have been projected 79th in SP+ however overachieved in opposition to projections in 5 of their first seven video games and had risen to 52nd heading into November. There was no motive to think about them as playoff contenders — they have been 5-2 primarily due to tight wins over each first rate (Kansas, Utah, Texas State) and dangerous (Mississippi State) groups — however this was already an undeniably profitable marketing campaign for a program that had gone 6-18 over the earlier two seasons.
Arizona State clearly had grander plans. Over their remaining seven video games, the Solar Devils overachieved in opposition to projections by 18.2 factors per sport, successful their final 5 regular-season video games, thumping Iowa State within the convention championship and coming inside one play of beating Texas within the CFP. Their unimaginable surge confirmed us precisely the type of enjoyable storylines that may emerge within the period of an expanded playoff, the place groups can have rather a lot to play for even after a few losses.
Working again Cam Skattebo turned one of many faces of the 2024 season, ending with 2,316 mixed speeding and receiving yards. We’ll discover out precisely how vital he was this fall as a result of he is nearly the one star gone.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt was virtually nearly as good as Skattebo down the stretch. From November onward, he ranked third nationally in Complete QBR regardless of main harm points in his receiving corps; he not often places the ball in a harmful spot, and he is a incredible scrambler. He will get main receiver Jordyn Tyson again, together with tight finish Chamon Metayer, however Tyson wanted extra assist than he bought final season, and the No. 2 main returning wideout, Malik McClain, caught simply two passes. Amongst McClain, veteran switch Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and possibly younger blue-chip transfers Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama), new weapons must emerge out extensive.
Skattebo was a spectacular safety blanket together with his environment friendly operating and pass-catching skills, however some mixture of 2024 backup Kyson Brown, Military switch Kanye Udoh and former blue-chipper Raleek Brown (injured for many of 2024) ought to be first rate, at the very least. If nothing else, Brown seems to have equally harmful receiving capacity, and the blocking up entrance ought to be excellent. 4 O-line starters return, and Dillingham added senior deal with Jimeto Obigbo (Texas State).
Even with much less apparent star energy, the protection was simply as chargeable for ASU’s late-season surge because the offense, and of the 17 defenders with at the very least 200 snaps final season, a whopping 14 return. Deal with C.J. Fite made 12 run stops (an enormous whole for a 310-pounder), finish Elijah O’Neal made 12.5 TFLs, and corners Keith Abney II and Javan Robinson mixed for six interceptions and 17 breakups final season. The cross rush was merely first rate and might want to enhance, however depth and expertise might be main strengths.
It is arduous to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was strong for about two-thirds of the season and excellent for one third, and whereas that wasn’t sufficient to earn the belief of SP+ — and a 6-2 report in one-score finishes might be robust to duplicate — sufficient of final 12 months’s key contributors return to suppose that this may very well be a top-15-level staff once more.
Head coach: Joey McGuire (fourth 12 months, 23-16 general)
2025 projection: twenty sixth in SP+, 8.4 common wins (5.6 within the Massive 12)
Three years into Joey McGuire’s tenure at Texas Tech, issues have not actually modified. The Crimson Raiders went 7-6 and ranked fortieth in SP+ in Matt Wells’ remaining season in cost, they usually’ve averaged 7.7 wins and a No. 45 SP+ rating since. A mix of fine bounces and good close-game execution (with excessive fourth-down willingness) has helped McGuire’s Crimson Raiders win a overwhelming majority of their one-score finishes, however Tech hasn’t actually gotten higher but.
If that is going to vary sooner or later, it should in all probability be this 12 months — as a result of massive checkbooks have introduced a mega-class of transfers to town.
There are some strong offensive additions: USC operating again Quinten Joyner (7.6 yards per carry), Miami (Ohio) receiver Reggie Virgil (19.9 yards per catch), Louisiana tight finish Terrance Carter Jr. (10.4 yards per goal), Incarnate Phrase receiver Roy Alexander (1,108 yards and 13 TDs), Miami (Ohio) left deal with Will Jados (second-team All-MAC). They need to pair properly with returnees corresponding to veteran receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin (mixed: 1,529 yards, 13 TDs), sophomore RBs J’Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey, and two returning line starters. Former Texas State offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich takes over at OC, and though quarterback Behren Morton hasn’t been wonderful in Lubbock — in components of three seasons, he has produced a Complete QBR between 51.6 and 56.0 all three years — he’ll have his finest supporting forged but. That is very true if former blue-chip receiver Micah Hudson figures issues out. He caught simply eight passes as a freshman, introduced his switch to Texas A&M this offseason, then returned to Lubbock.
The protection is perhaps the extra fascinating unit, and that is a uncommon factor to say relating to Tech. New coordinator Shiel Wooden improved Houston’s protection from 102nd to 54th in defensive SP+ in 2024, and he’ll have some unimaginable transfers to work with at each stage of the protection. Defensive tackles A.J. Holmes Jr. (Houston), Lee Hunter (UCF) and Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois) mixed for 28.5 TFLs, 32 run stops and eight sacks final 12 months, whereas edge rushers David Bailey (Stanford) and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) mixed for 16 TFLs, 12 run stops and 9.5 sacks. Cornerbacks Dontae Balfour (Charlotte), Brice Pollock (Mississippi State) and Amier Boyd (UTEP) every defended (intercepted or broke up) at the very least 9 passes, and massive security Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State) defended 21 in 2023. Incumbent linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts (mixed: 24 run stops) and nickel again A.J. McCarty are also strong returnees.
Per SP+, Tech has had one top-50 protection previously 15 years. I might count on that to vary in 2025. However are we speaking forty ninth or, say, twenty ninth? Is Morton adequate at QB? Will good close-games fortune proceed even when Tech improves? McGuire did not signal an unlimited switch class by immediately’s requirements. Can a extra focused strategy pay program-wide dividends the identical method large overhauls at Arizona State and Colorado did? Regardless of the solutions, Tech is considered one of 2025’s most fascinating groups.
Head coach: Kalani Sitake (tenth 12 months, 72-43 general)
2025 projection: twenty seventh in SP+, 8.4 common wins (5.7 within the Massive 12)
It is clearly not optimum writing a preview for a staff that evidently has to open up its quarterback race to 3 fairly uncooked QBs in the midst of the summer season. Juniors McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourguet and freshman Bear Bachmeier have mixed for two,376 profession passing yards, all at different faculties (Hillstead got here from Utah State, Bourguet from Western Michigan). With Jake Retzlaff virtually definitely gone, considered one of these three will begin. That is not nice from a common prognostication standpoint.
That is nice, although, as a result of I am at all times improper about BYU. Kalani Sitake’s Cougars have been everywhere in the map in recent times, zigging after I thought they’d zag. After dropping Zach Wilson & Co. after the good 2020 season, then holding regular at 10-3 in 2021, I believed they have been just about positive issues, however they fell to 8-5 (first rate) and 66th in SP+ (much less so). They returned a ton of manufacturing in 2023 and seemed like prime bounce-back candidates, however they slipped additional to 76th and 5-7. With fairly a little bit of turnover — and an unknown juco switch at quarterback — there wasn’t a lot motive to imagine a sudden surge in 2024. However then got here a sudden surge. Each the offense and protection improved dramatically, and the Cougars rose as excessive as seventh within the AP ballot earlier than settling for a mere top-15 end.
So yeah, my BYU preview was going to be an enormous shrug of the shoulders whatever the QB state of affairs. However listed here are some issues I am at the very least moderately assured in saying:
• Linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker are dynamite. They mixed for 21.5 TFLs, 20 run stops and eight.5 sacks final season. Of the 16 defenders who noticed 200-plus snaps, they’re two of solely eight returning — the highest 4 defensive linemen are gone, as are three starters within the secondary — however they’re superior.
• I just like the incoming defensive position transfers. Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah) and Justin Kirkland (Oklahoma State) are each listed at 300-plus kilos (Kirkland is definitely 340-plus), however they mixed for 20 run stops and 4 cross breakups. They’re super-active massive guys. One other 300-pounder, Anisi Purcell (Southern Utah), has disruption potential, too.
• Regardless of dropping three starters, the offensive line is massive and skilled, with 5 returnees who began at the very least two video games, plus junior transfers Andrew Gentry (Michigan) and Kyle Sfarcioc (Southern Utah). Mixed with the return of 220-pound operating again LJ Martin, that ought to make for a strong, bodily id if one is required.
• One will in all probability be required, contemplating a brand new beginning QB might be throwing to a receiving corps changing three of final 12 months’s high 4 choices. Senior Chase Roberts is massive and superior, and each sophomore Jojo Phillips and junior Parker Kingston have been wonderful in small samples. However depth is tenuous at finest.
• The schedule is fascinating: three opponents projected 88th or worse, then three between 52nd and sixtieth, then 4 ranked thirty second or higher. That can permit the Cougars an opportunity to determine themselves out, at the very least.
Head coach: Kyle Whittingham (twenty first 12 months, 167-86 general)
2025 projection: thirty first in SP+, 7.9 common wins (5.3 within the Massive 12)
In Could, I checked out three types of luck or fortune that might result in a turnaround (good or dangerous) the next season and got here up with methods to grade groups in every class. For turnovers luck, Utah ranked 121st nationally. For close-game fortune, the Utes ranked 99th. For lineup stability, they ranked 128th. Add these rankings collectively, they usually have been fairly comfortably the least lucky staff within the energy conferences, second worst amongst all FBS groups (forward of solely Florida Atlantic).
Even with quarterback Cam Rising injured as soon as once more, they started the season 4-0, rising to thirteenth in SP+ with what ended up being their finest protection in 5 years. However the hits stored coming: They ended up beginning 4 completely different QBs at the very least as soon as, together with 11 completely different receivers and tight ends and eight completely different linemen. The end result: a collapse to 96th in offensive SP+ and a seven-game dropping streak that included tight scores of 27-19, 13-7, 17-14, 22-21 and 31-28. They have been fortieth in SP+ however missed a bowl.
Lengthy story quick: Kyle Whittingham’s Utes are main turnaround candidates in 2025. However it should require a complete offensive facelift to work out properly. He employed artistic offensive coordinator Jason Beck — who led New Mexico’s finest offense in eight years in 2024 — and introduced in three new quarterbacks (together with New Mexico’s Devon Dampier), 4 operating backs and 6 extensive receivers. He did not must signal a couple of lineman as a result of final 12 months’s high six are all again, together with All-America deal with Spencer Fano. Dampier is a dynamite rusher (1,187 pre-sack speeding yards and 19 TDs), and with backs corresponding to Wayshawn Parker (Washington State) and NaQuari Rogers (UNM) and the aforementioned line, Utah ought to instantly have the most effective run video games within the league. Passing? We’ll see. Dampier is hit-or-miss, however Ryan Davis (UNM) and Larry Simmons (Southern Miss) may very well be play-action deep threats.
Morgan Scalley’s protection handled its personal harm points, with 22 guys beginning at the very least as soon as. However the Utes nonetheless completed sixth in success price allowed (thirteenth speeding, tenth passing), permitting some fairly expensive massive performs however enjoying principally wonderful ball. It was possibly Scalley’s finest coordinator efficiency thus far.
Solely 10 of these 22 part- or full-time starters return, together with solely three of 9 linemen. Whittingham went principally younger together with his incoming transfers, and I am undecided of the defensive finish depth past star Logan Fano. However linebackers Lander Barton (12 run stops) and Levani Damuni (injured in 2024) are wonderful, and junior corners Smith Snowden and Elijah Davis may very well be prepared for star turns. Utah defenses are at all times strong, however to clear the bar that was set final 12 months, fairly just a few new linemen might want to break by. I do determine there’s some defensive regression coming, however offensive enchancment might offset that. If that flips some shut video games, Utah might be a contender.
Head coach: Matt Campbell (tenth 12 months, 64-51 general)
2025 projection: thirty second in SP+, 7.8 common wins (5.5 within the Massive 12)
Iowa State continues to achieve new heights beneath Matt Campbell. He has been in cost for each of the varsity’s AP top-15 finishes, together with final 12 months’s 11-win run, and whereas the Cyclones’ 112-year convention title drought continues, he has introduced them to the Massive 12 title sport twice.
Wild swings in close-game fortunes have outlined latest seasons: From mid-2021 by early 2023, the Cyclones misplaced an unimaginable 12 of 13 one-score video games, however they’ve since received seven of 9. That has masked some in any other case exceptional consistency: Prior to now eight seasons, they’ve completed between twenty third and thirty seventh in SP+ six instances, with one 12 months above (2020) and one 12 months under (2022). Their No. 32 projection for 2025 is sensible, then, although with seven video games projected inside one rating, they will as soon as once more be aware about the whims of the god of shut video games.
The protection has to interchange its high three linemen and 4 of its high six defensive backs, however coordinator Jon Heacock will get the good thing about the doubt. He needed to begin 21 completely different guys at the very least as soon as in 2024 however nonetheless produced a top-25 defensive SP+ rating, and thanks partially to these accidents he’ll have considered one of his most seasoned linebacking corps. Kooper Ebel and Rylan Barnes mixed for 11 TFLs and 21 run stops in 2024, and juniors Will McLaughlin and Caleb Bacon produced related numbers in 2023. Security Jeremiah Cooper and nook Jontez Williams are good, and incoming nook switch Tre Bell (Lindenwood) seems to be the half. The cross protection ought to be sturdy once more, however the run protection was far worse than regular final season, and this 12 months’s line might be far much less skilled. That is not an awesome mixture.
ISU’s No. 44 offensive SP+ rating, although unamazing, was its finest in three years. There was nothing notably artistic right here — Taylor Mouser’s offense ran on commonplace downs, threw on passing downs and performed at almost probably the most common tempo within the nation. However the Cyclones dedicated virtually no penalties and suffered few unfavorable performs or three-and-outs. Quarterback Rocco Becht captained a gradual ship, with assist from two bodily operating backs (juniors Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III) and an unlimited line (common dimension of six returnees with beginning expertise: 6-foot-6, 322 kilos).
Final 12 months’s recipe ought to be replicable, however it should require a few breakthroughs within the receiving corps. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are each gone after combining for 167 catches and a couple of,377 yards, and the main returning wideout, Carson Brown, had 11 catches. Between big-play switch Chase Sowell (East Carolina), senior Daniel Jackson (injured in 2024) and untested kids, new playmakers should emerge.
With a schedule that includes 5 groups projected between 18th and twenty ninth and solely two projected worse than seventieth, mainly each sport is winnable and about 10 are losable. Shut video games and new playmakers at receiver and D-line will inform the story.
Head coach: Sonny Dykes (fourth 12 months, 27-13 general)
2025 projection: twenty ninth in SP+, 7.5 common wins (5.3 within the Massive 12)
It should not be attainable, however someway TCU, which made a run to the nationwide title sport in 2022, loved a superb 2024 season that was virtually utterly off the radar.
Following 2022’s blessed run — Sonny Dykes’ Horned Frogs have been a superb staff (ninth in SP+) that was somewhat too profitable in one-score video games (6-1) — got here a cursed 2023, by which the product regressed (thirty fifth) and all the nice fortune went away (0-4 in one-score video games). I am in all probability boring you with my fixed references to shut video games, however that was an epic reversal.
The Frogs began 2024 simply 3-3 due to a principally turgid protection. That meant they’d gone 8-11 of their previous 19 video games. However they then received six of their final seven. The offense discovered a pleasant cruising altitude, and Andy Avalos’ protection went from permitting a median of 37 factors over its first 5 FBS video games to simply 19 over its final seven. And it was like nobody observed. Regardless of ending 9-4 (and twenty fifth in SP+), they bought simply two votes within the remaining AP ballot. And that dastardly Mark Schlabach would not have them in his post-spring top 25 both. In contrast to so many coaches on the market, Dykes will get to play the “Nobody respects us!” card with precise fact behind it.
After a strong redshirt freshman season in 2023, Josh Hoover raised his sport with 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 67% completion price final 12 months. He threw eight of his 10 interceptions in a glitchy five-game midseason span, however he was principally secure down the stretch. He’ll have an skilled line in entrance of him, combining three 2024 starters with three skilled transfers (together with San Diego State’s Cade Bennett, who got here to Fort Price in 2024 however missed the season with harm). The ability corps wanted replenishing, nevertheless, after dropping 4 of its high 5 cross targets and its main rusher. Massive-play man Eric McAlister (19.5 yards per catch) returns, and veteran receivers Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) and Jordan Dwyer (1,192 yards at Idaho) might instantly thrive. However issues might go to a unique stage if thrilling kids corresponding to sophomores Jordyn Bailey and Braylon James or redshirt freshman Dozie Ezukanma emerge.
The protection returns 11 gamers who noticed at the very least 200 snaps, however a whole lot of high-level playmakers — finish NaNa Osafo-Mensah, linebacker Johnny Hodges, nickel Abe Camara, nook LaMareon James — are gone. Linebacker Namdi Obiazor and sacks chief Devean Deal are wonderful, and the secondary, led by security Bud Clark, is loaded with seniors. However it may once more take Avalos a short time to generate correct disruption except transfers corresponding to deal with Ansel Din-Mbuh (Washington State), linebacker Michael Teason (Missouri State) and security Kylin Jackson (LSU) are fast hits.
Head coach: Dave Aranda (sixth 12 months, 31-30 general)
2025 projection: thirty fifth in SP+, 6.7 common wins (4.9 within the Massive 12)
If TCU wasn’t probably the most neglected success story of 2024, Baylor was. After successful the Massive 12 in 2021, Dave Aranda’s Bears went simply 9-16 over the following two seasons and started 2024 simply 2-4. However just like the rival Horned Frogs, Baylor surged from there, successful six in a row. The protection did not play a lot of a job within the streak, however Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, whereas backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 speeding yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at the very least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (tenth in FBS) whereas gaining zero or fewer on simply 27.7% (nineteenth). That mixture will rating you numerous factors.
There is no motive to suppose the offense will regress. Even with Leavitt’s late-2024 cost, Robertson was the very best quarterback within the convention per Complete QBR.
Robertson will get Washington and Pendergrass again, plus main receivers Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins (mixed: 1,321 yards, 15 TDs), and Aranda added two 600-yard switch receivers (San Diego State’s Louis Brown IV and Texas State’s Kole Wilson) and enigmatic veteran Kobe Prentice (Alabama). The road returns 4 starters as properly, together with all-conference guard Omar Aigbedion. The Bears scored 31 or extra factors 9 instances final 12 months, and it might be a shock in the event that they did so fewer instances in 2025.
Massive 12 rivalry, then, is as much as the protection. Baylor collapsed from 18th in defensive SP+ in 2021 to 103rd in 2023, and whereas the Bears rebounded to 63rd final 12 months, with a genuinely strong run protection, the cross protection was horrible, they usually misplaced three video games whereas scoring 28 or extra factors. Aranda stored third-year coordinator Matt Powledge however loaded up on transfers. Travion Barnes (FIU) and Phoenix Jackson (Fresno State) have been two of the very best blitzing linebackers within the portal, edge rusher Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) is thrilling, and between Tulane’s Adonis Friloux (310 kilos) and Texas A&M’s Samu Taumanupepe (380!), Aranda added some spectacular dimension up entrance. However whereas returning nook Caden Jenkins is strong, Powledge has to hope that just a few of the six incoming DBs thrive shortly. The most probably of the bunch, based mostly on their stats and/or recruiting rankings: security Devin Turner (Northwestern), blue-chip nook Calvin Simpson-Hunt (Oregon) and FCS nook Caldra Williford (Tennessee Tech).
Having such an skilled staff might show vital, because the schedule begins with a bang: Within the first 4 weeks, Baylor hosts Auburn and Arizona State and visits SMU. Kansas State and Utah additionally go to Waco — the home-road break up right here is fairly favorable — and if the protection can simply hit a top-40 stage or so, the offense may take it from there.
A few breaks away from a run
Head coach: Lance Leipold (fifth 12 months, 22-28 general)
2025 projection: fiftieth in SP+, 6.0 common wins (4.0 within the Massive 12)
Here is a surefire technique to smash your social media mentions for just a few days: Evaluate somebody to Invoice Snyder. In final 12 months’s Massive 12 preview, I famous that (a) within the years earlier than Lance Leipold arrived, Kansas’ common soccer awfulness rivaled that of Kansas State’s within the pre-Snyder Nineteen Eighties, and (b) in his first three years on the job, Leipold had truly engineered a greater product. I additionally talked about that nobody can duplicate what Snyder did long run, however the injury was finished. My mentions have been a trash hearth for days.
I will need to have jinxed Leipold within the course of. His 2024 Jayhawks, enjoying their residence video games outdoors of Lawrence whereas Memorial Stadium was present process renovations, slipped from twenty fifth to fiftieth in SP+ and, with assist from a run of shut losses (1-5 in one-score video games), fell from 9-4 to 5-7.
In fact, in Snyder’s fourth season (1992), Ok-State slipped to 5-6 and fifty fifth in SP+. That brings the general scoreboard to …
Leipold’s first 4 years at Kansas: 22-28, 51.0% common SP+ percentile score
Snyder’s first 4 years at Ok-State: 18-26, 43.3% common SP+ percentile score
Leipold nonetheless has the sting. Deliver it on, Ok-State followers.
(No, however significantly, please do not deliver it on.)
In Yr 5, Snyder’s program ignited. Ok-State jumped to twenty sixth in SP+ in 1993, then fifteenth in 1994, then second in 1995. It can solely get more durable for Leipold to maintain up, and a 2025 rebound would require Leipold, a culture-and-development man by and thru, to show his portal chops.
One way or the other, quarterback Jalon Daniels nonetheless has eligibility left and can get an opportunity so as to add to his 6,751 profession passing yards and 1,401 profession speeding yards. He’ll have his third coordinator in as a few years, nevertheless it’s a well-known identify in longtime QBs coach Jim Zebrowski. That is not all of the change, although. Solely two different offensive starters return (all-conference middle Bryce Foster and guard Kobe Baynes), and Daniels might be surrounded by transfers — operating again Leshon Williams (Iowa), 5 new cross catchers together with Ball State’s Cam Pickett, two big-play FCS guys (Columbia’s Bryson Canty and Albany’s Levi Wentz), a former blue-chipper in Alabama’s Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and 5 new linemen.
On protection, new coordinator D.Ok. McDonald inherits a unit going through much more change. Of the 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps, solely 5 return, and 4 are linemen. (Finish Dean Miller and tackles D.J. Withers and Tommy Dunn Jr. are wonderful.) The again seven might be led virtually solely by transfers; that features a dynamite pair of linebackers in Trey Lathan (West Virginia) and Joseph Sipp Jr. (Bowling Inexperienced), however the incoming DBs are much less confirmed. Nickel Syeed Gibbs (Georgia Tech) seems to be disruptive, however the cross protection might proceed to be a legal responsibility.
Head coach: Brent Brennan (second 12 months, 4-8 general)
2025 projection: sixtieth in SP+, 5.4 common wins (3.4 within the Massive 12)
It is at all times tough to belief a one-year surge. Arizona went simply 10-31 with a median SP+ rating of 98.8 from 2019 to 2022, and whereas that made the Wildcats’ 10-win 2023 season notably exhilarating, it additionally meant that final 12 months’s steep regression wasn’t completely stunning, even when most of us have been extra optimistic.
Quarterback Noah Fifita is again, having thrown for five,827 yards and 43 TDs in two years, and sophomore guard Alexander Doost returns after producing the very best blown-block price on the staff. I sadly simply listed the entire semi-proven offensive returnees. Some transfers should thrive, and coach Brent Brennan definitely landed just a few intriguing ones. Backs Ismail Mahdi (Texas State) and Quincy Craig (Portland State) are distinctive run-and-catch threats, slot receiver Luke Wysong (New Mexico) was closely focused final season, and two FCS transfers, Cam Barmore (Mercyhurst) and Javin Whatley (Chattanooga), mixed to common 15.0 yards per catch. Seven new linemen are aboard as properly, and most of them at the very least have wonderful dimension. There’s potential right here, and new coordinator Seth Doege engineered strong enchancment in his lone season at Marshall final 12 months.
The code for Arizona’s protection was fairly simple to crack final season: Do you might have an honest offense? If that’s the case, you are going to rating numerous factors.
Arizona vs. offenses ranked worse than sixtieth in SP+: 15.5 factors per sport allowed, 5.0 yards per play
Arizona vs. top-60 offenses: 39.9 factors per sport allowed, 7.0 yards per play
Now-former defensive coordinator Duane Akina performed a ton of men — 22 bought at the very least 100 snaps — however solely defensive finish Tre Smith, nickel Dalton Johnson and linebacker Taye Brown did something notably disruptive, and of these 22 guys, solely 9 return.
Smith, Johnson and Brown all return for brand new coordinator Danny Gonzales, and as with the offense, I like fairly just a few incoming transfers — ends Chancellor Owens (Northwestern State) and Malachi Bailey (Alcorn State) and linebackers Blake Gotcher (Northwestern State) and Riley Wilson (Montana) mixed for 51.5 TFLs and 22.5 sacks, nook Michael Dansby (San Jose State) is a confirmed entity, and each security Jshawn Frausto-Ramos (Stanford) and nook Jay’Vion Cole (Texas) did fairly a bit in few snaps.
Brennan wanted a profitable portal haul, and whereas the FCS-to-FBS transfers are generally arduous to venture, I like what he added. The extremes of Arizona’s final two seasons have been dizzying, however the Wildcats have averaged seven wins and a No. 50 SP+ rating the final two years; that is in all probability too excessive a bar to clear this 12 months, particularly with six top-50 opponents on the schedule, however I do not suppose it is not possible.
Head coach: Deion Sanders (third 12 months, 13-12 general)
2025 projection: 52nd in SP+, 5.5 common wins (3.3 within the Massive 12)
If we ignore the unimaginable skills of Heisman winner Travis Hunter and the preposterously QB-centric offense Pat Shurmur crafted to showcase Shedeur Sanders, and we solely have a look at the outcomes, the primary two years of the Deion Sanders period have been fairly spectacular. Sanders inherited a program that, in 16 full seasons earlier than his arrival, had completed with a successful report as soon as. In his second 12 months, his Buffaloes went 9-4. They have been solely 2-4 in opposition to SP+ top-50 groups, however 2024 was an plain success.
For higher or worse, this 12 months’s CU staff goes to be virtually utterly completely different. Solely six starters return, and in come one other 30-plus transfers.
The primary non-Sanders QB of the Sanders period: Kaidon Salter, who in 2023 and ’24 threw for 4,762 yards with 1,840 non-sack speeding yards and 66 whole touchdowns at Liberty. He is virtually 180 levels completely different from Shedeur Sanders — if you do not have an honest designed-run package deal, you are not maximizing his potential — however he is good. A model new receiving corps will function doubtlessly high-level transfers in Joseph Williams (Tulsa), Hykeem Williams (Florida State) and Sincere Brown (Campbell), amongst others, and returnees Dre’lon Miller and Omarion Miller have strong potential. At operating again, Dallan Hayden did not do a lot final 12 months, however I am inquisitive about Incarnate Phrase switch DeKalon Taylor. Up entrance, properly, it is the third straight 12 months with an virtually utterly new O-line. We’ll see.
The offense shined at instances final 12 months, however the protection’s enchancment, from 113th to forty fifth in SP+, was an enormous driver of success. We’ll see if second-year coordinator Robert Livingston can craft the identical success with a principally new unit. Ends Samuel Okunlola and Arden Walker (mixed: 14.5 TFLs), deal with Amari McNeill and nook DJ McKinney are strong returnees, however one other massive switch haul will inform the story. There are some promising additions — linebackers Reginald Hughes (Jacksonville State) and Martavius French (UTSA) mixed for 25 TFLs and 31 run stops final season, corners Tyrecus Davis (Wyoming) and Teon Parks (Illinois State) mixed for twenty-four passes defended, and security Tawfiq Byard (USF) is dynamite close to the road of scrimmage.
Sanders is simply 4-3 as a head coach when Shedeur Sanders is not his quarterback, and he had probably the most uniquely good participant within the nation at his disposal the final two years. It is a new period, and the Buffaloes drew the quick straw in Massive 12 play — they play six of the highest seven projected groups in SP+. However the general expertise stage is strong, and a Sanders staff will at all times be fascinating, a technique or one other.
Head coach: Mike Gundy (twenty first 12 months, 169-88 general)
2025 projection: 58th in SP+, 5.4 common wins (3.6 within the Massive 12)
Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy have every coached at their present faculties for 20 years and achieved unprecedented, sustained success. They each disenchanted horribly final season, however whereas Whittingham’s Utah was comparatively unfortunate in 2024, Gundy’s OSU was simply dangerous. The offense was dreadfully inefficient, solely often redeeming itself with massive performs and nice purple zone execution. The protection, in the meantime, was unredeemable. Gundy had struck gold previously, hiring Division II hotshot Mike Yurcich as offensive coordinator again in 2013, however hiring one other D-II man in 2023, defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo, bombed.
What do you do when your comparatively inexperienced small-school DC fails? Search for probably the most skilled big-school man yow will discover. Gundy discovered Todd Grantham.
Grantham has been answerable for nice defenses (4 SP+ top-15 items within the 2010s at Georgia, Louisville and Florida), and he is had some absolute duds. He is a “when doubtful, blitz more durable” man, and Gundy tried to deliver him some portal cross rushers in ends Kyran Duhon (UTEP), Taje McCoy (Colorado) and Malik Charles (West Georgia) and linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky). He additionally bought a few massive tackles (Vanderbilt’s De’Marion Thomas, UCLA’s Sitiveni Havili Kaufusi), a tackling machine in linebacker Bryan McCoy (17 run stops at Akron) and many new transfers and jucos for the secondary. He mainly stripped the protection right down to the studs, as he wanted to. Now we’ll see if it really works.
On offense, OSU goes again to fundamentals. Doug Meacham, a variety old-hand and Gundy’s receivers coach within the 2000s, comes again to Stillwater, and his first Cowboy offense will mainly have 11 new starters, most of whom will come from a haul of 19 transfers. Working again Freddie Brock (Georgia State) is a pleasant run/cross risk, Christian Fitzpatrick (Marshall) and Jaylen Lloyd (Nebraska) are deep-route consultants, tight finish Oscar Hammond (North Texas) is nice, and two Division II receivers, Terrill Davis (Central Oklahoma) and Cam Abshire (Emory & Henry), every had incredible numbers at that stage. I am undecided I see any line standouts, and OSU is totally devoid of expertise at quarterback, the place it seems both sophomore Zane Flores or incoming redshirt freshman Hauss Hejny (TCU) will begin. However once more, an overhaul was wanted. Now we’ll see if it really works.
Gundy has steered out of skids earlier than, and each time individuals begin to name him washed up, he places collectively a 10-win season. However he is by no means needed to repair one thing this damaged.
Head coach: Willie Fritz (second 12 months, 4-8 general)
2025 projection: 59th in SP+, 5.8 common wins (3.6 within the Massive 12)
Willie Fritz’s first season at Houston was, in a method, backward. The Cougars are used to good offense however collapsed to 118th in offensive SP+, whereas the protection, having ranked 94th or worse for 5 of six seasons, surged to 54th. They held half their opponents to twenty or fewer factors however scored 14 or fewer factors half the time.
Traditionally, Fritz is a good second-year coach. In his 5 earlier head teaching stops (Blinn Neighborhood School, Central Missouri, Sam Houston, Georgia Southern and Tulane), he went from a mixed 30-25-1 in his first 12 months to 44-17 in his second. I might guess that his second UH offense will certainly enhance dramatically. Slade Nagle, his former Tulane OC, will lead an assault that now options quarterback Conner Weigman (Texas A&M), operating again Dean Connors (Rice), extremely sought-after tight finish Tanner Koziol (Ball State) and a bunch of line transfers.
Weigman, a former top-30 recruit, was hit-and-miss at A&M, however Fritz praised his athleticism and flexibility this week at Massive 12 media days, and Connors is a dynamite yards-after-contact man who additionally caught 62 passes in 2024. Slot receiver Stephon Johnson, operating again Re’Shaun Sanford II and middle Demetrius Hunter are in all probability the very best of the returnees.
The primary query for 2025 is that if offensive enchancment merely offsets defensive regression. Coordinator Shiel Wooden left for Texas Tech and was changed by Austin Armstrong, and of 13 guys who noticed 200-plus snaps (a fairly tight rotation), solely 4 return. Granted, returnees deal with Carlos Allen Jr., edge rusher Brandon Mack and security Kentrell Webb are strong, however that is going to be a brand new unit with three switch linemen, 4 linebackers and 9 DBs. As with most Massive 12 groups, I like a whole lot of the incoming transfers, from deal with Myles Parker (Tennessee Tech), who made 7.5 TFLs at 335 kilos, to linebackers Carmycah Glass (Louisiana) and Jesus Machado (Tulane), nickel again Wrook Brown (Wyoming) and corners Marc Stampley II (Georgia Southern), Will James (Southern Miss) and Zelmar Vedder (Sacramento State). Nonetheless, having to retool an encouraging protection this a lot is not optimum.
Houston performs solely 4 projected top-50 opponents and, regardless of mediocre general rankings, is a projected favourite in six video games. The pathway to a second-year breakthrough exists, however provided that Fritz seems to be a powerful switch portal negotiator.
Head coach: Scott Frost (third 12 months at UCF, 19-7 general, first 12 months of second stint)
2025 projection: 61st in SP+, 5.7 common wins (3.4 within the Massive 12)
Below Gus Malzahn, UCF was one thing virtually worse than dangerous: The Knights have been perpetually mediocre. They consistently hinted at a stage that they may by no means maintain on to and went simply 10-15 in 2023 and ’24. It made sense, then, that the varsity would need to reclaim outdated glories. Scott Frost led the Knights to a 13-0 report and nationwide title declare in 2017 earlier than returning to alma mater Nebraska and going simply 16-31. Now he’s back in his old office in Orlando.
Massive deal with Paul Rubelt is the one returning starter on an offense that welcomes 17 transfers, lots of them somewhat explosive: Quarterback Tayven Jackson (Indiana) averaged 15.2 yards per completion and 5.7 yards per non-sack carry, operating again Jaden Nixon (Western Michigan) averaged 6.4 yards per carry, tight finish Dylan Wade (Maryland) had 5 catches of at the very least 25 yards, and smaller-school guys DJ Black (Limestone) and Chris Domercant (Chattanooga) mixed for 1,579 yards at 20.5 per catch. Jackson is the presumptive starter, and the RB combo of Nixon and Myles Montgomery ought to full a pleasant backfield. However the receiving corps and offensive line have fairly a bit to show in Frost’s mach-speed offense.
As a part of his redemption tour, Frost introduced one other redemption candidate with him: coordinator Alex Grinch. As soon as a brilliant up-and-comer at Washington State, Grinch bombed at USC. He has confirmed he can thrive when he has what he wants on the sting, although, and at UCF he’ll have ends Nyjalik Kelly and Malachi Lawrence (mixed: 17 TFLs) and a doubtlessly dynamite switch in sophomore Sincere Edwards (six TFLs at Pitt). Amongst linebackers Keli Lawson (Virginia Tech), Lewis Carter (Oklahoma) and Cole Kozlowski (Colgate), he ought to discover a good tackling machine within the center, and the cornerback haul of Jayden Bellamy (Syracuse), DJ Bell (Memphis), Jyaire Brown (LSU) and Isaiah Reed (Brown) ought to produce two keepers.
Total, UCF ought to have loads of explosive athletes, a superb run sport and a superb cross rush. Like just about everybody right here on the backside, the Knights might discover simply the fitting alchemy to make a sudden push, however somebody on this convention has to lose video games, and UCF misplaced fairly just a few in 2024.
Head coach: Scott Satterfield (third 12 months, 8-16 general)
2025 projection: 66th in SP+, 5.3 common wins (3.2 within the Massive 12)
Luke Fickell went an unimaginable 53-11 in his final 5 seasons in cost however left for Wisconsin as Cincy was making the transfer to the Massive 12; successor Scott Satterfield had matched that variety of losses by the tip of his second September.
The Bearcats did enhance in Yr 2, although not as a lot as they in all probability hoped. The offense did not make almost sufficient massive performs however was fairly environment friendly, particularly by the air. With quarterback Brendan Sorsby and tight finish Joe Royer returning, that effectivity potential stays. However with main rusher Corey Kiner and final 12 months’s high 4 wideouts gone, Sorsby might be distributing the ball to some unfamiliar teammates. Satterfield appeared to acknowledge Cincy’s explosiveness points by including a trio of big-play receivers in Caleb Goodie (Colorado State), Cyrus Allen (Texas A&M/Louisiana Tech) and Jeff Caldwell (Lindenwood). Throw in an expanded position for former Ohio State operating again Evan Pryor — whose 71 touches at UC final 12 months included rushes of 65, 64, 55, 36 and 32 yards and receptions of 80 and 40 yards — and you might have a large uptick in massive performs. Sustaining final 12 months’s effectivity is perhaps as much as a line that misplaced three starters however added three skilled transfers.
The protection returns some difference-makers within the entrance six. That is doubly true if deal with Dontay Corleone can discover fifth gear once more. A possible All-American, “The Godfather” was merely good final season after getting back from offseason blood clot points, however he is wholesome, and switch ends Jaylon White-McClain (Outdated Dominion) and Mikah Coleman (EMU, injured in 2024) might give the Bearcats additional oomph up entrance. At outdoors linebacker, Jake Golday and Jonathan Thompson are each wonderful in opposition to the run.
The cross protection is the query mark. The cross rush is unproven, and 4 of final 12 months’s 5 beginning DBs are gone, leaving returnees like nickel Antwan Peek Jr. to pair with newcomers like nook Matthew McDoom (Coastal Carolina) and safeties Tayden Barnes (New Mexico State), Xavier Williams (Center Tennessee) and Christian Harrison (Tennessee). Barnes was one of the crucial disruptive freshman DBs within the nation final season.
Additional enchancment is probably going in Satterfield’s third season, however with a schedule that includes six top-35 opponents, I am undecided what impression that can have on the win whole.
Head coach: Wealthy Rodriguez (eighth 12 months at WVU, 60-26 general, first 12 months of second stint)
2025 projection: 57th in SP+, 5.2 common wins (3.1 within the Massive 12)
Like Scott Frost, Wealthy Rodriguez has returned to the scene of his biggest successes. He even doubled down on the nostalgia issue by hiring former Mountaineers stars like Pat White and Noel Devine as assistants.
Rodriguez has introduced in 52 transfers, together with veteran operating again Jaylan Knighton (SMU), three small-school thousand-yard rushers (Catawba’s L.J. Turner, Ferris State’s Kannon Katzer and Northern Iowa’s Tye Edwards), 4 600-yard receivers (together with Jacksonville State big-play man Cam Vaughn and Idaho State thousand-yarder Jeff Weimer), 11 offensive linemen, dynamite UTSA edge rusher Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks, 11 run stops), two disruptive FCS linebackers (Southern Illinois’ Ben Bogle and UIW’s Devin Grant), two of probably the most disruptive DBs within the Group of 5 (Nevada nook Michael Coats Jr. and Jax State nickel Fred Perry) and an enchanting D2 security in Virginia Union’s William Davis (11.5 TFLs!).
With junior Jahiem White additionally returning, WVU ought to simply have one of the crucial thrilling operating again items within the nation. His profession has been hit-and-miss since he left Morgantown the primary time, however he re-established his run-game bona fides at Jacksonville State, successful 27 video games in three seasons. In Tyler Huff, he had an ideal QB for his type at JSU, and we’ll see if both Jaylen Henderson (Texas A&M), returnee Nicco Marchiol or Max Brown (Charlotte) match as properly. However Rodriguez positively introduced in as many intriguing weapons as he might discover within the portal.
He additionally made a pleasant defensive coordinator rent, luring former JSU DC Zac Alley over from Oklahoma. A former pupil and graduate assistant at Clemson, Alley has solely been a full-time coach since 2019, however his observe report is dynamite: He oversaw enchancment at ULM (reverse offensive coordinator Wealthy Rod) in 2021, engineered a No. 57 defensive SP+ rating in Jax State’s FBS debut and helped OU to enhance from thirty eighth to seventeenth final season. There are such a lot of new guys that everybody’s going to want to put on identify tags within the assembly room for just a few months, however he does have some playmakers right here. And if the Mountaineers can mix unfavorable performs on protection with massive run performs on offense, their in-the-cellar projection will show far too pessimistic.
Simply in search of a path to 6-6
I normally reserve this class for groups with not more than a 35% likelihood of bowl eligibility. The Massive 12 has no such groups. Everybody has a motive to be fairly bold. I like this convention.