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Mike Clay
As you prepare for fantasy football 2025, you’ll want to get loads of apply through the use of our Mock Draft Lobby and maintain observe of Mike Clay’s updated projections all through the season.
Soccer statistics are extraordinarily onerous to foretell, however historical past continues to indicate that projecting landing regression to the imply is considerably simpler than you may think.
Through the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there have been 169 cases wherein a large receiver or tight finish scored fewer than 5 touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches earlier than managing a minimum of 50 touches the very subsequent season. Of these 169, 114 (67.5%) scored extra touchdowns the subsequent season.
Focusing in on the 48 gamers in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns in the course of the first 12 months, 39 (81.3%) scored extra touchdowns the subsequent season. Of the 16 who scored both one or zero touchdowns, 14 (87.5%) discovered the top zone extra usually the subsequent 12 months. Slot WRs Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) have been chargeable for the 2 exceptions.
Final season, 29 WR/TEs scored fewer than 5 TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables underneath three scores together with Jake Ferguson (0), Elijah Moore (1), Jaylen Waddle (2), Dalton Schultz (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Hunter Henry (2) and Mike Gesicki (2).
We see comparable outcomes if we run this take a look at on operating backs. There are 45 cases wherein a again failed to succeed in seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches earlier than managing 200 touches once more the subsequent season. Of these 45, 36 (or 80.0%) scored extra touchdowns the subsequent season. Apparently, there have been 4 backs who failed to succeed in 4 touchdowns within the first 12 months however every scored a minimum of seven occasions the subsequent season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The typical second-year landing whole was 9.3!
In 2023, six RBs fell in need of seven TDs on 200-plus touches and went on to rack up 200 touches in 2024. Of these six, 4 scored extra TDs, with the exceptions Tony Pollard (6 to five) and D’Andre Swift (6 to six).
Final season, 5 RBs have been held underneath seven TDs on 200-plus touches: Rico Dowdle (5 TDs), Pollard (5), Swift (6), Tyrone Tracy (6) and Najee Harris (6).
When you skipped all that, or simply tuned out whereas scanning over the maths, the purpose right here is straightforward: NFL gamers are inclined to bounce again — usually in an enormous manner — once they put up an unusually low landing quantity and see comparable enjoying time the next season.
On this piece, I will be referencing anticipated touchdowns (xTD), which is a statistic that weighs each carry/goal and converts the information into one quantity that signifies a participant’s scoring alternative. Put one other manner, it’s what number of touchdowns a league-average participant would’ve scored with the very same alternative because the participant proven.
A cautious examination of every of the under participant’s 2024 utilization tells us that we must always anticipate a lift in scoring manufacturing this season.
Be aware that this examine is proscribed to regular-season dashing and receiving information.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 6
McBride was the poster boy for unhealthy TD luck in 2024, totaling three scores (two receiving, neither of which got here till Week 17) regardless of ending second on the place in targets, catches, yards, finish zone targets (10) and fantasy factors. Extremely, McBride led all tight ends in anticipated TDs (7.9) and though he additionally did not rating a lot in 2023 (three TDs on 108 targets), we are able to safely anticipate a profession excessive in 2025.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 8
Pickens scored a career-low three TDs final season regardless of greater than doubling his earlier profession whole in finish zone targets (12, in comparison with 10 throughout his first two seasons). The top zone goal whole ranked twelfth amongst receivers (he caught solely two of them) regardless of him lacking three video games and rating fortieth on the place in catches. Even in a brand new offense and with CeeDee Lamb within the combine, Pickens figures to spice up his scoring big-time this season.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 7
Of the 11 gamers who dealt with 13-plus finish zone targets final season, Odunze (who had precisely 13) was the one one with fewer than 5 TDs. The 2024 No. 9 general decide was on the sector a ton as a rookie (eighth amongst WRs in routes), however uneven QB play restricted his effectivity (9 of the 13 finish zone targets weren’t catchable and his 37% general off-target charge was second highest amongst WRs). A second-year enchancment from Caleb Williams would go a great distance for Odunze.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 5
Kelce was restricted to a career-low three touchdowns final season, all of which got here on his six finish zone targets. It is easy to write down off the dip as a product of his age, however Kelce was nonetheless within the prime 5 amongst tight ends in snaps, routes, targets, catches and yardage. Kelce stays a closely utilized goal in Kansas Metropolis’s pass-heavy offense and figures to search out the top zone extra usually this season.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDs: 0
2025 Projected TDs: 3
Ferguson holds the unlucky distinction of getting probably the most targets (88) amongst all gamers who did not catch a landing move final season. The tight finish was restricted to 2 finish zone targets after pacing the place with 10 (which helped him to 5 TDs) in 2023. A wholesome Dak Prescott will assist his rebound probabilities in 2025.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 4
Etienne had quite a bit go incorrect throughout a disappointing 2024, and a scarcity of scoring was one among them. After scoring 12 TDs (sixth most amongst RBs) and getting 9 carries contained in the 5-yard line in 2023, Etienne plummeted to 2 scores (each got here throughout Weeks 1-2) and 5 carries contained in the 5 final season. He would possibly now not be the group’s main goal-line again (Tank Bigsby has taken that function), however he will get sufficient run to permit lots extra scoring.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 5
After overachieving with 15 touchdowns (8.9 xTD) throughout his first two NFL seasons, Waddle has been hit onerous by regression the previous two seasons (six TDs, 6.7 xTD). Waddle merely hasn’t been used a lot close to the objective line (16 profession finish zone targets, together with two in 15 video games final season). The 26-year-old’s utilization suggests he’ll by no means have a excessive TD ceiling, however he can definitely enhance on two TDs on 92 targets, particularly in a very good Miami offense.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
2024 TDs: 0
2025 Projected TDs: 4
You learn that appropriately: Hockenson did not discover the top zone in any of his 10 regular-season video games final season. Maybe we should not be too shocked, as Hockenson has by no means been an enormous TD scorer (profession excessive of six in 2020 and 2022), however he definitely noticed sufficient work to permit a handful of scores (2.0 xTD, three finish zone targets). For what it is value, the turnaround may need already began, as he caught Minnesota’s lone postseason landing.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 5
Henry shaped a pleasant reference to Drake Maye final season — he ranked top-eight amongst TEs in targets, catches and yards — however the touchdowns merely did not comply with. Henry’s 4.8 xTD and 6 finish zone targets each ranked prime 12 on the place, however 25 tight ends scored extra TDs. Henry does have a historical past of discovering the top zone (eight in 2016, 9 in 2021, six in 2023), and he not often falls in need of his anticipated whole (40 TDs, 37.4 xTD in profession). We are able to anticipate a rebound in 2025, particularly as Maye enters Yr 2.
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