On the subject of working again fantasy manufacturing, touchdowns are paramount.
Final season, 24% of the place’s fantasy scoring got here from touchdowns. The highest eight working backs in PPR fantasy factors additionally comprised the place’s prime eight in touchdowns. And all however one of many place’s single-game 30-point performances have been multi-touchdown efforts.
That stated, year-over-year landing manufacturing on the place could be notoriously tough to foretell. Twelve working backs scored double-digit touchdowns in 2023, however solely seven of them did so once more in 2024, with the dozen averaging 3.2 fewer touchdowns and 29.9 fewer PPR fantasy fantasy factors.
It is a class of prognostication, of analyzing participant abilities and bodily traits and, sure, even some guesswork. That is the place we’re right here to assist, breaking down the place’s most certainly sources of landing manufacturing. The next lists take note of working backs’ dimension, power, velocity, situational statistics and previous historical past.
Let’s begin with the place’s best on this division.
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Our eight finest RB landing bets
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: He is each velocity demon and goal-line dynamo, main the league in explosive play price (15.7% of his carries went for 10-plus yards), whereas additionally putting third in landing conversion price contained in the 3-yard line (72.2%, or 13 of 16). No working again has a higher mixture of touchdown-generating abilities. — Cockcroft
At 5-foot-9, 202 kilos, Gibbs does not have the bodily profile of a traditional goal-line again, however he can function in tight quarters, utilizing his lateral quickness to dart via creases of daylight, whereas dropping his pad degree on the doorstep of the tip zone. Plus, together with his short-area burst, Gibbs can bounce the ball exterior to slice via pursuit angles on the purpose line or out within the open discipline. He’s electrical with the ball in his palms. — Bowen
2. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: Williams lacks the sudden motion traits of an elite zone scheme runner, however together with his imaginative and prescient and make contact with steadiness, he can discover the tip zone at a excessive price. Williams has sufficient decrease physique wiggle to sift via visitors, and his means to bounce off defenders results in landing manufacturing. Williams is a constant and dependable fantasy starter. — Bowen
Solely three working backs had greater than Williams’ 21 touchdowns in goal-to-go conditions the previous three seasons, and he transformed 40% of these tries into scores, a testomony to his dominant nature when in scoring place. — Cockcroft
3. Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: If not for his age and a pair of,529 profession touches, he’d rank greater, however Henry is nearly as good a guess to steer the league in touchdowns as anybody. Inside 3 yards of the purpose line, he led in touchdowns (22) and first downs over expectation (5.6) from 2022 to ’24, and his seven scores from exterior the crimson zone have been second to solely Saquon Barkley‘s 9. — Cockcroft
Nonetheless one the league’s finest at age 31, Henry’s 6-foot-2, 247-pound body and lower-body energy are each sport changers on the purpose line. Henry runs behind his pads, which permits him to fall ahead on contact, whereas additionally forcing defenders to make some enterprise choices on the level of assault. An extended strider within the open discipline with a deadly stiff arm to drop defensive backs into the turf, Henry can hit dwelling runs, too. Time to strike up the band when Henry will get rolling. — Bowen
4. Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: I felt that Jacobs was one of many prime runners within the low crimson zone final yr based mostly on the tape. He can play with each energy and foot quickness within a telephone sales space, and he has thunder in his pads. A straightforward match for the Packers’ goal-line run schemes, Jacobs’ bodily play type creates scoring alternatives in your lineup. — Bowen
Solely two gamers with at the least 5 such makes an attempt had higher than Jacobs’ 71% landing conversion price throughout the 3-yard line final season. — Cockcroft
5. James Cook, Buffalo Bills: He is as prone to break off a protracted acquire for a rating as anybody, his seven touchdowns from exterior the crimson zone the previous three seasons matching Henry’s second-place quantity (Barkley led), however Prepare dinner was additionally a superb 5-of-8 changing his goal-line carries final season, swiftly adapting to the function he inherited to start 2024. — Cockcroft
Prepare dinner’s 16 dashing scores final season tied for the league lead with Henry. He is a decisive runner with little wasted motion on the purpose line. Choose a north/south working lane to speed up via or assault the perimeter. It is fast, now. And a poor defensive angle goes to result in six factors. Plus, Prepare dinner can rating from wherever on the sphere, ripping off explosive performs as a runner. — Bowen
6. David Montgomery, Lions: A downhill runner with glorious contact steadiness and decrease physique management, Montgomery is a hammer on the purpose line. Whether or not Montgomery is working from shotgun units or I-back alignments, he retains his shoulders sq. and makes use of a fast leap lower to get out of hassle. A part of the perfect backfield combo within the league with Gibbs, Montgomery will get his touches in scoring place, making him a strong RB2/Flex within the lineup. — Bowen
It is exceptional that the Lions have two of the sport’s finest working backs at discovering the tip zone, however right here we’re. Montgomery was 18 of 29 (62%) changing for scores inside the three from 2022 to ’24. — Cockcroft
7. Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: I beloved this signing for the Texans a yr in the past, as Mixon has been one of many league’s most quietly reliant in scoring place, his 16 scores inside the three from 2022 to ’24 tied for sixth most within the league. — Cockcroft
A savvy runner in scoring place, Mixon blends endurance, imaginative and prescient and energy on goal-line performs. Mixon has the leg power to push the pile on inside schemes, and he’ll assault the perimeter on exterior zone ideas. Plus, Mixon can redirect shortly to evade defenders and create a brand new path to the tip zone. — Bowen
8. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Sudden and elusive, with a inventive component to his sport, Robinson is a dynamic runner in scoring place. Robinson can hit the accelerator on perimeter schemes, play with pressure on a downhill monitor and his means to vary instructions is high-level. Robinson has all of the traits of a difference-maker with huge play potential. — Bowen
Robinson is as prone to break off a long term for a rating as anybody, as Subsequent Gen Stats has clocked his common velocity at 13.4 mph throughout his two NFL seasons, second-fastest amongst working backs with at the least 100 carries. — Cockcroft
4 RB landing sleepers, and the teammates they impression
1. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: Bigsby has the profile to function on the purpose line in Jacksonville, which may take away scoring alternatives from Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten. Bigsby scored seven touchdowns in 2024, utilizing his 5-foot-11, 215-pound body to run via contact, and he has extra big-play juice than you suppose. There’s open-field means right here, too. — Bowen
Bigsby is 5-for-9 changing his probabilities contained in the 3-yard line, and he has compelled a missed deal with on three of these performs. He ought to start 2025 because the Jaguars’ first alternative when in scoring place. — Cockcroft
2. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Early fantasy drafters appear to like rookie working again TreVeyon Henderson, however Stevenson’s monitor file as one of many league’s extra dependable goal-line backs may make him certainly one of 2025’s prime landing vultures. Stevenson is 9-of-17 changing contained in the three from 2022-24. — Cockcroft
There was plenty of offseason hype for the Patriots’ rookie RB, given his versatility and pass-catching talent set. However do not forget about Stevenson right here. At 6-foot, 207 kilos, he’s constructed for the purpose line: energy and pad degree to get six. — Bowen
3. J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos: Dobbins seemed extra explosive on tape in 2024, which translated to some big-play landing runs. On the purpose line, he can comply with the highway map to the tip zone on hole schemes. Bodily with the ball. RJ Harvey figures to be the lead runner in Sean Payton’s backfield, however Dobbins has the traits to steal touches on the purpose line. — Bowen
Dobbins’ 57% missed tackles compelled price (4 on seven performs) contained in the 3-yard line from 2022-24 led the league, and he scored seven instances on 18 goal-to-go performs. He might be a possible headache for Harvey’s managers. — Cockcroft
4. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I am as pro-Bucky Irving as anybody getting into 2025, however White scored 9 instances on 12 tries inside the three the previous three seasons, successful price the workforce is likely to be unable to miss. — Cockcroft
Irving ought to enter camp because the No.1 in Tampa, however White will nonetheless get his touches. He has the physique management to slither via cracks of daylight when the sphere shrinks close to the purpose line. — Bowen
Different RBs worthy of point out
Gus Edwards was 19 of 39 (second-best 49%) changing his goal-to-go carries into touchdowns from 2022-24, portray the image of a short-yardage again for any workforce that considers signing him within the coming weeks. … Ezekiel Elliott, at the moment a member of the Los Angeles Chargers‘ apply squad, is 16 of 38 (second-best 42%) scoring in goal-to-go conditions over the previous three seasons.