The fourth main of the yr begins Thursday with the Open Championship at Royal Portrush.
Which gamers do our golf specialists suppose will win? The place do our betting specialists imagine there may be worth? We break down the favorites and far more forward of the 2025 Open Championship.
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Experts’ picks to win | Betting roundtable
Consultants’ picks
Matt Barrie
Rory McIlroy. Why? I began the majors selecting Rory to win the profession Grand Slam. It looks like a becoming end to win at residence.
Tory Barron
McIlroy. After the U.S. Open, I’ve resigned myself to the actual fact I do know nothing (respectfully, for those who picked J.J. Spaun to win all of it — no you did not). That being mentioned, I am going with McIlroy to win his sixth main championship. Regardless of post-Masters win woes, McIlroy confirmed a return to kind on the Scottish Open, tying for second. He’ll muster some Northern Eire magic to complete the key season hoisting the Claret Jug for the primary time since 2014.
Michael Collins
McIlroy. Seven of McIlroy’s previous eight rounds of aggressive golf have been 68 or higher, with three rounds at 65 or higher. Of all of the gamers within the high 10 photographs gained: tee to inexperienced, McIlroy comes into the week in one of the best kind. This win will earn him POY.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Jon Rahm. Rahm has been trending in the precise path on the majors, and this looks like a very good week for him to get again within the winner’s circle. He has completed inside the highest 15 in all three majors, with a T-7 on the U.S. Open most lately. He is been inside the highest 10 in three of the previous 4 Open Championships, and this looks like a very good week for him so as to add a 3rd main.
Andy North
McIlroy. Rory appears to be like like he is again to being Rory. He’ll put a ton of strain on himself at The Open, rising up in that space. I believe he’ll deal with it and be our winner.
Mark Schlabach
McIlroy. I questioned if Rory would coast by way of the remainder of the season after finishing the profession Grand Slam by profitable a inexperienced jacket on the Masters in April. He appeared to lack a lot motivation and even admitted it was troublesome for him to grind on the vary for hours after profitable at Augusta Nationwide. His kind has been higher in his previous three begins, together with a tie for second in final week’s Genesis Scottish Open. I am certain he’d like to erase his reminiscences of lacking the reduce at Royal Portrush in 2019, and profitable one other Claret Jug in his native Northern Eire can be one more feather in a Corridor of Fame profession.
Curtis Unusual
Keegan Bradley. Taking part in nice, simply gained the Vacationers. I am rooting for the story, and Keegan profitable, being Ryder Cup captain, can be a hell of a narrative for The Open and the Ryder Cup.
Paolo Uggetti
Xander Schauffele. There’s something about The Open and Schauffele, who has performed a few of the most constant golf at this occasion through the years, that simply appears to suit. Nobody has defended a serious efficiently since Brooks Koepka did it on the 2018 PGA Championship, however when the wind or rain picks up this week and Portrush exhibits extra of its tooth, I believe Schauffele will probably be one of many few able to embrace it.
Betting roundtable
Who’s your choose to win?
David Gordon, ESPN Analysis
Rahm (+1200): Excessive finishes do not depend as wins, however Rahm is one among solely two gamers with Prime-15 finishes in every of the previous 4 majors (courting again to final yr’s Open); the opposite is Scottie Scheffler. He is additionally completed seventh or higher at The Open in three of the final 4 years, and his T-Eleventh end right here in 2019 does not harm. All of it suggests he may very effectively safe the third leg of the Slam this week.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): Nobody brings extra emotional weight to Royal Portrush than Rory. It is his residence turf and after a gutting missed reduce in 2019, this return is private. His 2025 kind is robust, highlighted by a win at Augusta and elite tee-to-green consistency (fifth within the subject). He scores excessive on hyperlinks tracks and has an extended résumé of thriving in wind and rain (Scottish Open, Irish Open, Pebble Seaside). His driving accuracy is low, however scrambling and psychological toughness steadiness it. Portrush is a spot the place narrative and numbers completely align.
Anita Marks, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): Rory regarded nice final week, ending T2 in Scotland, and he’s peaking on the proper time. He dominated Royal Portrush on the age of 16, taking pictures a 61. The one large benefit would be the hometown crowd, which will probably be cheering for Rory. A win right here would get him midway to a second profession Grand Slam — discuss motivation!
Who’s your favourite wager to make the Prime 10?
Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+140).
He has repeatedly proved himself in powerful setups (Torrey Pines, Augusta, Muirfield Village). His trajectory, management and energy work effectively in wind, and his Open Championship efforts are arduous to disregard with three Prime-10 finishes in his final 4 begins. His 2025 PGA kind is mega robust with finishes no worse than T14 within the Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open, and he has the psychological hearth to surge on Sunday.
Marks: Tyrell Hatton (+300).
Hatton is a savvy hyperlinks specialist, and this match is the right alternative for him to win a serious. Gamers on LIV are out of sight out of thoughts, however Hatton is one for the only a few that has remained constant, particularly when taking part in in majors. He had a T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019, so we all know he has what it takes to grasp this course.
Gordon: Sam Burns (+550).
He is develop into a gradual presence in majors after struggling earlier in his profession. Burns held the outright 54-hole lead on the U.S. Open and was tied for 2nd coming into the ultimate spherical finally yr’s Open, each instances struggling within the closing spherical by way of brutal climate circumstances. I like the value greater than something at +550.
Maldonado: Rory McIlroy Prime 10 (-105).
Getting practically even cash for a Prime 10 is worth. He rounded again into kind with three straight Prime 20 finishes together with back-to-back high 10s on the Vacationers and Scottish with elite ball-striking numbers. Other than bleeding pink on the RBC Canadian Open, the strokes gained metrics are there throughout the board. At Royal Portrush, on residence soil, this can be a high-floor wager with practical top-five upside.
Gordon: Scottie Scheffler Low American (+240).
That is one of the best worth I can discover on Scheffler, as that is double his worth to report a Prime-5 end (+120). Weary of Xander Schauffele, amongst others, that is my favourite Scheffler wager with the opposite two match favorites (McIlroy and Rahm) hailing from outdoors the USA.
Who’re you avoiding completely?
Maldonado: Scottie Schefffler.
It is purely a worth name, not a expertise fade. Paying -170 for a Prime 10 and getting simply +120 for a Prime 5 is excessive threat with not sufficient reward, particularly at a monitor like Portrush. Sure, he is nonetheless contending whereas shedding strokes placing, which is absurd, however these worth factors are inflated past affordable threat. I’d additionally wager outrights on different gamers as is and keep away from the “with out Scheffler” as a result of his presence is not distorting the highest of the board sufficient to justify the premium. If he wins, fantastic. you misplaced, like many of the subject. But when he does not, you need a full payout not a watered-down quantity simply since you paid to dodge one identify.
Gordon: Patrick Cantlay.
His end place has been worse than his world rating coming into the occasion in 23 of his final 24 main begins. Cantlay usually performs effectively on typical PGA Tour setups, but it hardly ever (if ever) interprets to main championship venues, the premier instance being missed cuts this yr at each the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
Who’re your favourite lengthy photographs/worth bets?
Maldonado: Tommy Fleetwood Prime 10 (+260).
That is the place you commerce security for worth. His recreation is tailored for hyperlinks programs — managed ball flight, elite scrambling and a confirmed potential to deal with powerful climate. At +260 for a Prime 10, the upside is actual, however the Prime 20 provides you margin on a participant who hardly ever fades on this aspect of the pond. If there was ever a time for him to win… it is right here. Although we have seen this film earlier than.
Marks: Ryan Fox outright winner (+6000).
Fox is having an awesome season with two wins on the PGA Tour. He can grip it and rip it, and has an awesome brief recreation, which is ideal for a hyperlinks course. He shot a 66 in Spherical 1 in Scotland final week. Moreover, Fox ranks eighth in placing common and is twenty third on tour in complete strokes gained.
Gordon: Russell Henley outright winner (+6000).
Quietly coming off three straight Prime-10 finishes, together with two in signature occasions and one other on the U.S. Open, Henley has totally returned to the shape he confirmed earlier than profitable the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. He is gained strokes across the inexperienced in 10 straight begins, an vital metric given how small the greens are at Royal Portrush. Henley entered Sunday tied for 2nd finally yr’s Open in path to ending fifth.
Some other bets stand out to you?
Maldonado: Adam Scott Prime 20 (+290).
Pure worth on expertise and ball-striking. He is performed each main hyperlinks venue during the last 20 years and enters with trending tee-to-green kind. At Royal Portrush, the place creativity and management matter greater than energy, his tempo and course administration give him a transparent edge. The brief recreation is a priority, however at this worth, you are betting on sharp irons and veteran savvy doing sufficient to maintain him contained in the quantity. –
Gordon: Xander Schauffele Prime 20 (+140).
He has cashed on this market in 13 of the previous 14 majors. He is additionally by no means missed the reduce in seven profession appearances at The Open. After he tied for eighth on the Scottish Open final week, I will proceed to put money into Xander Prime 20s in majors, particularly at +140.