Do you know that 10,000 ballistic missiles — every carrying one to 2 tons of explosives — may trigger as a lot, or much more, devastation than a Hiroshima-style atomic bomb?
Earlier than Israel’s three strikes on Iranian territory — probably the most consequential in June 2025 — Iran was racing towards mass manufacturing of precision-guided ballistic missiles. This wasn’t hypothetical. Tehran was getting ready to flood Israel’s airspace with 1000’s of superior rockets designed to overwhelm its multi-layered protection techniques: Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome.
The editor-in-chief of The Times of Israel wrote that it was the sober, unified judgment of Israel’s intelligence and navy chiefs that led to the preemptive strike. The nation wasn’t simply weeks from a nuclear breakout — it was additionally on the verge of deploying a missile arsenal with the ability to incapacitate Israel’s economic system, overwhelm its defenses and inflict mass civilian casualties.
Former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as soon as infamously known as Israel a “one-bomb nation.” Right this moment, that warning have to be up to date: Israel is now a “10,000-missile nation.”
Based on veteran Israeli journalist Ron Ben-Yishai, Israeli intelligence concluded that Tehran was getting ready to provide 10,000 ballistic missiles with the damaging power equal to 2 nuclear bombs. The hope that Israel’s October 2024 strike on Iran’s solid-fuel manufacturing websites would sluggish this system proved overly optimistic. Iran responded by accelerating manufacturing.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry later acknowledged that Iran was shifting to industrial-scale missile manufacturing. Iran was on observe to turn into the world’s main missile producer, together with intercontinental ballistic missiles able to reaching Europe, with payloads massive sufficient to degree metropolis blocks.
As one senior Israeli official defined, “We acted due to two existential threats. One was nuclear …, the opposite ballistic… That menace was as existential to us as a nuclear bomb.”
Whereas a lot of the world has remained narrowly targeted on uranium enrichment, Israeli intelligence had already concluded that Iran’s ballistic missile buildup posed an equally pressing and imminent hazard. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly cited Iran’s missile enlargement as a principal cause for the June 2025 operation.
But world media protection of the 12-day Iran-Israel battle largely missed the bigger strategic rationale for Israel’s strikes. Headlines targeted on the restricted variety of Iranian missiles that penetrated Israeli defenses. What was missed was the way more harmful trajectory Iran was on: constructing a missile power able to saturating and bypassing even probably the most refined protection techniques.
That’s the reason latest studies that President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, could also be exploring a nuclear-only agreement with Iran — one which excludes any restrictions on missile improvement — have deeply alarmed Israel’s protection and intelligence institution. Trump has denied providing sanctions aid or money incentives, however the concern stays that the US could also be entertaining a deal that fails to deal with Iran’s increasing missile menace.
This isn’t a theoretical oversight. Iran has already tailored its navy posture following every main conflict — April 2024, October 2024 and June 2025 — enhancing its means to evade Israeli and U.S. defenses. In contrast to the short-range, low-yield rockets launched by proxy teams like Hezbollah or the Houthis, Iran’s homegrown missiles are longer-range, heavier and extra damaging — designed to achieve deep into Israel’s city facilities and demanding infrastructure, producing the utmost quantity of terror on the citizenry.
A nuclear-only take care of sanctions aid that ignores Iran’s missile program wouldn’t be prudent diplomacy. It might be strategic self-deception. Such an settlement would embolden the regime in Tehran, undercut Israeli deterrence, and nearly actually invite additional escalation throughout the area. Regional instability would comply with.
As Israel National News just lately reported, Iran’s missile arsenal is dispersed throughout hardened bunkers, civilian neighborhoods and distant mountain ranges. These missiles should not going to vanish with a handshake. Rolling again this menace requires sustained diplomatic stress, rigorous inspections, enforceable limits, and penalties for transgressions, one thing Iran is loath to comply with.
Let’s hope studies of a flawed nuclear deal leaving out the equally harmful missile menace are mistaken. Nevertheless, in the event that they’re correct, Congress and the American folks want to know what is at stake. An efficient settlement should shut down all of Iran’s escalatory pathways, not simply the nuclear one. Failing to deal with Iran’s missile program in negotiations can be a strategic error for the U.S. and an existential danger for our ally, Israel.
Eric R. Mandel is the director of the Center East Political Data Community and senior safety editor for the Jerusalem Publish’s Jerusalem Report.