KERR COUNTY, Texas (KXAN) – Native officers in Kerr County proceed dealing with public scrutiny after days of seeming to deflect questions on their preparedness and response to the July 4 flash flood that left dozens lifeless. The eye comes, as data reviewed by KXAN reveal leaders decided in 2024 that the county probably “will expertise a flood occasion within the subsequent yr.”
On Wednesday, throughout a morning press convention, they up to date the loss of life depend to 95 with 161 individuals nonetheless lacking. Whereas once more avoiding solutions about particular actions within the hours between climate warnings and the Guadalupe River rising 30 toes, Sheriff Larry Leitha stated there can be an “after-action” assessment following his “precedence” of notifying victims’ households.
“We are going to reply these questions,” Leitha instructed reporters. “I want y’all would bear with me on that, okay? Bear with me. We’ll get them. I can’t let you know when – in per week or two, okay? We’re gonna get them.”
The sheriff additionally assured solutions for “the those that put me on this workplace” relating to issues over the county’s CodeRED alerts – which permit subscribers to obtain emergency notifications to their cellular units. The effectiveness of the alerts has surfaced throughout press occasions, together with the revelation that Kerr County has no system of warning devices – like sirens – to alert the general public, regardless of a decade of failed attempts to fund and install such a system.
Officers, like County Choose Rob Kelly, have maintained they “didn’t know this flood was coming,” although the Nationwide Climate Service issued a flood watch Thursday – the day earlier than the catastrophe. It additionally issued a flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. Friday, nonetheless hours earlier than the river hit its height.
The county has not absolutely defined the timing of evacuations. At 5:31 a.m., it made an preliminary put up on Fb: “Be secure and transfer to greater floor. Don’t drive by way of water. Flip Round – Don’t Drown!” A minute later, the sheriff’s workplace additionally reposted NWS info by itself Fb web page, including: “If you’re close to the water, transfer to greater floor instantly. Keep away from low water crossings – flip round, don’t drown!”
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has additionally stated the Texas Division of Emergency Administration communicated straight with county judges and metropolis mayors concerning the climate forecast the day earlier than the flood. At Wednesday’s press convention, Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring, Jr., stated he “didn’t obtain a phone name” and didn’t know what assets TDEM had in place. He didn’t verify if Kelly was a part of any name.
“I wasn’t invited to the decision,” Herring stated. “Possibly I’m not a neighborhood mayor. I can’t inform.”
KXAN has requested a response on these claims and in addition a record of communication between local leaders, the NWS, TDEM and different state officers – together with any emergency notifications made – to raised perceive selections relating to communication and their public warnings.
“That is probably the most harmful river valley in the USA, and we take care of floods frequently – when it rains, we get water,” Kelly stated Friday. “We had no cause to consider this was going to be something like what has occurred right here, none in any way.”
However a KXAN assessment of the county’s most up-to-date hazard mitigation plan exhibits officers there have recognized for years flooding was a significant menace within the space – and was getting worse.
Hazard mitigation plan
Below the Federal Catastrophe Mitigation Act of 2000, the county is required to have a Federal Emergency Administration Company-approved Native Hazard Mitigation Plan as a way to be eligible for sure pre- and post-disaster mitigation funds. The author 220-page plan was formally adopted by Kelly and county commissioners after which submitted to FEMA this April.
Stakeholders within the plan included the county, the cities of Ingram and Kerrville, the Kerrville Unbiased Faculty District, the Kerrville Public Utility Board and the Higher Guadalupe River Authority. Representatives compiling the plan included each Kerr County and Kerrville’s emergency administration coordinator, Kerrville’s hearth chief and the UGRA basic supervisor.
The group met twice, starting in March 2024, and performed public outreach in Might and October that yr. Their analysis included historic climate information from the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the county’s earlier hazard mitigation plan from 2018 and flood harm prevention ordinances for the county, Kerrville and Ingram every – which recognized constructing necessities and restrictions for buildings within the floodplain.
Kerr County’s emergency administration coordinator, William B. “Dub” Thomas – who has held the put up since November 2015 however has not been a major a part of any public look or press occasion since final week’s flood – is liable for the “continued coordination and monitoring of the mitigation plan” throughout its 5-year length. At that time, the planning group is meant to re-evaluate and replace the doc, giving members a chance to “establish current losses as a consequence of pure hazards and to think about whether or not any of these losses may have been prevented.” Thomas has not responded to KXAN’s inquiries.
The plan notes beneath “chance of future occasions,” the group “decided it’s probably that Kerr County and taking part jurisdictions will expertise a flood occasion within the subsequent yr, which means an occasion is possible within the subsequent three years.”
Objectives and targets
The plan detailed a minimum of 106 “flood occurrences” relationship again to 1960, together with the 2 most just lately listed in 2018 – each flash floods with no accidents, fatalities or property harm. It additionally famous current flooding occasions all through the county have resulted in as much as 10 inches of flood water and that future “worst-case flood occasions” may exceed these depths.
A piece on “affect” stated that would embody:
- Residents quickly shedding energy as a consequence of downed energy traces;
- Motorists and residents being left stranded and wanted rescue;
- Buildings being flooded, broken and even fully washed away;
- Roads being washed out;
- Emergency care facilities having restricted entry.
Whereas unlikely, the hazard from a 500-year flood – which has a 0.2% probability of occurring in any given yr – was described as “not negligible” within the plan. It additionally talked about local weather change may make the river flooding extra frequent.
Among the many plan’s foremost objectives was lowering lack of life and harm, with particular targets together with:
- Enhancing the supply and effectiveness of warning messages;
- Decreasing obstacles to well timed and secure evacuation of flood hazard areas.
Associated to the county’s earlier mitigation plan from 2018, the up to date plan recognized actions but to be carried out – or in progress – however nonetheless crucial, together with:
- Making a program to teach the general public about particular mitigation actions for all hazards (in progress; medium precedence; estimated value – lower than $10,000 per hazard)
- Proposing a neighborhood flood warning system to scale back the potential impacts of future flood occasions (deferred to plan replace; medium precedence; estimated value – much less that $1 million)
KXAN is awaiting a response from the county concerning the standing of the plan’s implementation and whether or not it was adopted throughout final week’s flood.