Home Democrats in crimson states throughout the nation are in danger because the redistricting arms race heats up.
Texas Republicans’ proposed redraw, a President Trump-backed plan that might internet the get together 5 extra Home seats, has led to other red states transferring ahead with their own redistricting plans.
Florida, Indiana and Missouri are among the many Republican-led states now weighing whether or not to redo their congressional maps — placing quite a lot of Democratic incumbents in danger.
Listed here are the Home Democrats almost certainly to be focused throughout the nation:
Greg Casar, Texas thirty fifth
Republicans already management 25 of the 38 congressional seats in Texas, however the proposed adjustments may give them a 30-8 edge by slashing Democratic-controlled seats in Houston, Dallas and Austin-San Antonio.
One of many largest proposed adjustments impacts Rep. Greg Casar’s (D-Texas) thirty fifth Congressional District, which went to former Vice President Harris by 33 factors in November. The map would create a brand new +10 Trump district outdoors of San Antonio, in response to analysis from Prepare dinner Political Report.
Casar has called the would-be destruction of his district “unlawful voter suppression of Black and Latino Central Texans.”
Lloyd Doggett, Texas thirty seventh
The Austin base of Casar’s present district could be pushed into the thirty seventh Congressional District, now held by Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas).
The adjustments may set up a potential primary matchup between Casar and Doggett, who has accused Trump of “taking a hatchet to cut up Austin and our state with the only goal of sustaining his one-man rule.”
Julie Johnson, Texas thirty second
The Texas plan would reshape the thirty second Congressional District, presently based mostly in Dallas and held by Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). By stretching the district into East Texas, it will turn out to be a +18 Trump seat, in response to the Cook Political Report.
Johnson has been amongst the voices heralding Texas state Home Democrats for fleeing the state to interrupt quorum and stall “a rigged map.”
Marc Veasey, Texas thirty third
Rep. Marc Veasey’s would see his thirty third Congressional District seemingly stay blue, however the longtime lawmaker would most likely lose his hometown and political base within the redrawing.
This might create a major between Veasey and Johnson because the latter’s seat is reshaped, analysis from the Texas Tribune suggests, in the event that they each determine to try to keep within the Home.
Henry Cuellar, Texas twenty eighth
Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Texas) seat in Texas’s twenty eighth Congressional District would shift rightward, from a +7 Trump district to a +10 submit.
The Prepare dinner Political Report says that Cuellar may “conceivably survive” the midterms, although he’s presently grappling with an ongoing criminal casethat might complicate any reelection prospects. Cuellar and his spouse had been indicted by a federal grand jury in Houston final yr on prices of taking part in a bribery scheme.
Vicente Gonzalez, Texas thirty fourth
Like Cuellar, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) would see his thirty fourth Congressional District seat get even redder, in response to the Prepare dinner Political Report.
Gonzalez gained reelection by just three points final yr, so even a slight transfer towards the appropriate may imperil reelection prospects. In an announcement after the map’s launch, nonetheless, Gonzalez pointed to Trump’s approval score as he promised “we are going to win once more.”
Al Inexperienced, Texas ninth
Rep. Al Inexperienced’s (D) seat in Texas’s ninth Congressional District would merge with the empty blue seat vacated by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), yielding a extra conservative ninth district within the suburbs of east Houston.
Al Inexperienced “nearly definitely wouldn’t run” within the new ninth, the Prepare dinner Political Report forecasts, however he may run for the vacant 18th seat. In the meantime, a particular election is ongoing to fill the emptiness for Turner’s former seat.
Marcy Kaptur, Ohio ninth
Ohio is the one state that’s required to redistrict this yr, after its 2022 maps did not obtain bipartisan help. Republicans boast a 10-5 majority within the present congressional delegation, and redistricting may imply a handful of Democrats see their districts get more durable.
Rep. Mary Kaptur (D) in Ohio’s ninth Congressional District is taken into account among the many most vulnerable after profitable a extremely aggressive race in 2024. Her district went to Trump by roughly 7 factors final yr, in response to The Downballot.
Emilia Sykes, Ohio thirteenth
Like Kaptur, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) in Ohio’s thirteenth Congressional District gained a good race in 2024 and has been focused by the GOP as a possible pickup alternative. The district was effectively tied between Trump and Harris in November.
“It’s no shock that particular pursuits in Washington and Columbus wish to ignore the voters and rig the sport,” Sykes marketing campaign spokesman Justin Barasky instructed The Hill last month.
Rep. Greg Landsman (D) within the 1st Congressional District round Cincinnati is also impacted, in response to the Columbus Dispatch, although anti-gerrymandering rules permitted by voters in 2018 prevents redistricting from breaking apart the town.
Emanuel Cleaver, Missouri fifth
Missouri’s Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe has indicated he’ll look at the potential of redistricting within the state, the place Republicans management six of eight districts.
The Kansas City Star reported final month that Trump’s political workforce had expressed curiosity in making an attempt to achieve one other Present Me State seat, which might likely be Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver’s fifth Congressional District in Kansas Metropolis.
Cleaver, who has been within the seat for twenty years, won reelection with 60 p.c of the vote final fall, after line changes in 2022. He instructed St. Louis Public Radio that the push for mid-decade redistricting is “very harmful.”
Frank Mrvan, Indiana 1st
Republicans look like eyeing Indiana, the place Democrats maintain simply two Home seats, as one other opening.
Amid redistricting chatter, Vice President Vance met on Thursday with Gov. Mike Braun (R), who would want to name a particular session of the state Basic Meeting to provoke redrawing.
If Indiana had been to redistrict, adjustments would seemingly squeeze the first Congressional District within the northwest, the place Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) has already been named as a national GOP target for 2026.
“It’s no shock that some consider redistricting is the one choice to cling to energy once they know the American individuals are rejecting the injury finished by the Home Republican Majority,” Mrvan mentioned in an announcement.
A redraw may additionally have an effect on Mrvan’s fellow Democrat, Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.), although the seventh Congressional District round Indianapolis could also be considerably safer, since breaking apart blue voters within the space may make different Republican Home districts extra susceptible.
Republicans maintain the opposite seven Home seats in Indiana.
Florida Democrats
Florida’s state Home Speaker this week announced he’ll form a redistricting committee after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signaled the Sunshine State may observe Texas’s lead.
There are simply 8 Home Democrats to twenty Republicans in Florida, and a number of blue seats may very well be endangered if a redraw strikes ahead.
Republicans are hoping to gain at least three seats within the Sunshine State, Punchbowl Information reported this week.
One of the potential South Florida targets is Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who gained reelection in November by 5 factors in a district that went to Harris by simply two factors. Fellow South Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Lois Frankel could also be vulnerable, together with South Florida. Rep. Kathy Castor (D) within the Tampa space and Rep. Darren Soto (D) outdoors of Orlando.
All 5 of those Democrats gained their 2024 races with lower than 60 p.c of the vote. Moskowitz and Soto are already on the GOP marketing campaign arm’s goal checklist.
“It’s referred to as corruption when the one purpose to redraw the maps is to carry onto energy trigger y’all are going to lose in ’26,” Florida Democratic Occasion Chair Nikki Fried said on X.
Different lawmakers
Amid the Texas drama, chatter is percolating about redistricting prospects in nonetheless extra states.
An analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecasts there may very well be room for adjustments in North Carolina, the place a brand new 2024 map netted the GOP three new seats, and in Kansas, which has only one blue seat — although it’s all however assured that Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) wouldn’t name a particular session to provoke talks.
Republican Rep. Ralph Norman in South Carolina has suggested a redraw that might goal longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state’s lone Democratic congressman, however the transfer is seen as unlikely given the already favorable 6-1 delegation cut up.
Except Ohio, it stays unclear which states will in the end undergo with redistricting, as Texas Democrats’ dramatic quorum break stalls progress even within the Lone Star State.
And even for individuals who do, it’s not a assure that change may clear in time take impact earlier than subsequent fall’s high-stakes midterms.
In the meantime, Democrats want to counter would-be GOP beneficial properties by weighing redistricting in blue strongholds, together with California, the place Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has mentioned he’s transferring ahead with a plan to place redistricting earlier than voters this fall, which might be triggered by what occurs in Texas.