A redistricting arms race is heating up around the country as different states look to observe Texas’s lead in redrawing their congressional traces forward of the 2026 midterms.
A number of Democratic and Republican governors have expressed curiosity of their states conducting their very own redistricting course of so as to add as many seats as they will for his or her events and improve the possibilities that their occasion can win management of the Home subsequent 12 months. However whether or not they may be capable of depends upon the state and its personal distinctive guidelines.
Listed here are the seven states most certainly to observe Texas in redistricting:
Ohio
Ohio is the one state within the nation, even together with Texas, already assured to redraw its district traces because it’s in a little bit of a unique state of affairs than the others.
State lawmakers are required to approve a brand new map forward of the midterms as a result of the present map, in place since 2022, was solely permitted by a easy majority alongside occasion traces quite than a bipartisan supermajority. However with Republicans firmly accountable for each homes of the state legislature, the occasion nonetheless appears more likely to decide up a couple of seats with the following map.
The 2 Democratic lawmakers most certainly to doubtlessly lose their seats within the course of are Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes within the ninth and thirteenth Congressional districts. So whereas Republicans already occupy 10 of the 15 Home seats that Ohio has, they may nonetheless decide up a couple of extra.
California
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has been arguably essentially the most seen Democrat in responding to Republicans’ efforts to make use of redistricting, and the Golden State appears to be the occasion’s greatest likelihood to choose up essentially the most seats if Texas approves a brand new map.
The method for California to redraw its traces in time for the 2026 midterms is a bit sophisticated — however potential. The state has an unbiased redistricting fee that determines its district traces, however Newsom confirmed on Friday the state would transfer ahead with a particular election in November that might permit them to create a brand new map in place for the remainder of the last decade.
The unbiased fee would stay intact for the reapportionment after the 2030 census, and a brand new map would solely be used if Texas or one other state redraws its traces first. However presuming Texas does redistrict, Newsom and state Democrats seem dedicated to advancing a plan that would achieve their occasion as much as 5 seats.
Florida
The Sunshine State is the opposite vital supply of potential good points for the GOP by means of redistricting, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has been increasingly hinting on the state GOP following Texas’s footsteps so as to add extra Republican seats.
Florida state Home Speaker Daniel Perez (R) announced on Thursday that he would kind a redistricting committee to discover potential maps and authorized questions related to how the traces are drawn. However he didn’t specify the timeline for redistricting, saying the committee’s members could be introduced subsequent month.
However a couple of Democrats may very well be focused if the method advances, together with Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Jared Moskowitz and Darren Soto. And Republicans are feeling notably emboldened after the state Supreme Courtroom upheld the present map towards claims of racial gerrymandering.
Indiana
Together with the big-ticket states that would give the GOP a number of additional seats, the Trump administration can be placing stress on smaller states that would web just one seat.
Vice President Vance visited Indianapolis on Thursday for a gathering with Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) to debate mid-decade redistricting. Braun didn’t decide to redistricting following the assembly, however he left the door open.
In the meantime, Trump’s allies had been reportedly exploring choices in Indiana late final month. Braun would want to name a particular session of the legislature and Republicans must transfer shortly, however the occasion has a supermajority.
If permitted, a brand new map would most certainly goal Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) within the northwestern a part of the state.
Missouri
Missouri is one other state the place Republicans theoretically may decide off one other Democratic-held seat if the occasion members need to push ahead.
The administration has additionally put stress on the GOP within the state, with Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) because the possible goal, however the response from state lawmakers has been blended. State Home Speaker Professional Tempore Chad Perkins initially expressed doubt about redistricting early, however he showed extra openness to it after receiving a name from the White Home.
However state Senate President Professional Tempore Cindy O’Laughlin instructed The Missouri Impartial that she additionally wasn’t too keen concerning the plan, and Perkins expressed concern about potential backlash to Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) calling a particular session.
New York
New York Democrats appear simply as determined as their California counterparts to replace their district traces, however their possibilities of having the ability to replace them earlier than subsequent 12 months’s elections appear slim.
The Empire State additionally makes use of an unbiased fee to attract its traces, with approval from the state legislature. State lawmakers can suggest a constitutional modification to voters to vary the system, however any modification must go in two consecutive classes of the legislature earlier than being proposed to voters.
This is able to imply that no change may go into impact till forward of the 2028 elections on the earliest. However Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has pledged to have a look at all out there choices, acknowledging the time constraints and wanting a sooner timeline.
She stated the unbiased fee needs to be disbanded or modified, and she or he would additionally take a look at litigation choices.
New Jersey
The Backyard State could be a super spot for Democrats to attempt to decide up a seat or two, however limitations put in place will possible make this not potential earlier than the midterms.
New Jersey additionally has an unbiased fee that lawmakers would want to go round to enact a brand new map, however its state structure additionally particularly prohibits mid-decade redistricting.
Each of those may very well be overcome with a constitutional modification, and Democrats have snug management of each homes of the state legislature, however possible not sufficient time stays to vary it prematurely.
The general public wants a three-month discover interval earlier than voting on an modification, which suggests this previous Monday was the deadline for getting it handed forward of Election Day on Nov. 4.