MIAMI — When Miami-Dade County helped elect President Trump in November, successfully taking over a conservative bent after practically three a long time of being strong blue, political operatives right here had their worst fears realized: Florida was in truth a crimson state.
The indicators of an enormous political change in southern Florida had been seen for a number of cycles, together with Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) 2022 win, when he flipped the metropolitan county for the primary time in additional than 20 years.
“There may be nothing extra maddening to me than the self-inflicted wounds in Dade,” stated Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who relies in Florida and ran former President Obama’s 2008 operation within the state. “Too many in my social gathering — notably these exterior of Florida — thought the Obama ’12 and [Hillary] Clinton ’16 numbers in Miami have been indicators the county had grow to be a progressive bastion.”
“However we’re speaking about a spot the place most individuals got here right here to flee socialist authoritarian governments and crime — so when individuals on the intense left tried to justify issues like ‘Democratic socialism,’ think about how that sounds to the ears of a household that left the whole lot behind — or a household who got here right here searching for security to listen to issues like ‘defund the police,’ Schale added.
One other longtime Democratic operative in Florida stated shedding Miami-Dade was a “intestine punch” for Democrats.
“We may see the trainwreck coming earlier than the crash occurred, however that was a very painful second for any Democrat who cares about this state,” the operative stated.
Florida Democrats see their issues in Florida as the results of years of neglect following Obama’s win in 2012. However they are saying they haven’t given up on attempting to maneuver the Sunshine State again into purple state territory. In reality, they are saying, they’re doubling down on their efforts.
“We’re nonetheless rebuilding, however we’ve had a whole lot of success,” stated Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Occasion, in an interview with The Hill.
Fried pointed to an 8 p.c enhance in Democratic voter turnout from the 2020 election to the 2024 election. She additionally credited work the state social gathering has carried out to generate good points on school boards and county commissions. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (D) was additionally capable of win reelection by a large margin even because the county went within the different course in 2024.
Nonetheless, Fried acknowledged there may be “a whole lot of work to be carried out and assets we’ve introduced into the state to do this work.”
Democrats’ voter affiliation in Florida has declined quickly since 2020. Republican affiliation within the state has additionally elevated, surpassing Democrats by a hair in 2021 and booming to virtually 1,500,000 extra as of late June.
Political observers attribute the drastic adjustments in social gathering affiliation to various components, together with a large migration of Republican voters to the state through the COVID-19 pandemic. President Trump — who lives in Palm Seaside — additionally has attracted high Republican operatives and donors throughout his rise to social gathering stardom.
Some Democrats don’t appear satisfied that there’s been a lot motion of their course in any respect. “On the organizational, operational aspect of issues, I do not suppose issues are any higher or any worse,” Schale stated.
He added there’s “nonetheless a whole lot of donor skepticism and donor fatigue” about the newest cycles within the state. However Democrats can transfer incrementally with key wins within the subsequent cycle, Schale stated.
“Success in 2026 is displaying good points and displaying enchancment, and should you do that you could make the case to donors that there is a trajectory you possibly can put money into,” he stated, pointing to David Jolly, the gubernatorial candidate and former Republican congressman who switched events, and Jose Javier Rodriguez, a former state senator who’s a Democratic candidate for Florida lawyer common.
“You construct again by fixing what you possibly can repair and getting success,” he added, referencing work that Democrats can do to enhance their standing with Hispanic voters, amongst different efforts.
And as Trump has stumbled lately in polls and messaging, strategists say now is an efficient time for Democrats to pounce and attempt to regain momentum within the state.
“If [Republicans] proceed to push for these insurance policies that now have Trump on the lowest approval score of any president at this level in his second time period, I believe it might create an setting the place, for the primary time in a long time, Florida voters might say, ‘Look, it is time for a change, and the one change now could be to offer the Democrats a shot at governing,” stated Democratic strategist Fernand Amandi, who relies in Miami.
He added that the will for change in Florida is exacerbated by an “unprecedented affordability disaster that’s the sole duty” of Republicans, who’ve had “complete management of state authorities for nearly three a long time.”
Regardless of the ripe second, strategists say it’ll nonetheless be a heavy carry for Democrats to recapture voters — a minimum of immediately.
“I dwell right here. I’ve to be an optimist … however I’m additionally a realist. It’s f‑‑‑ing exhausting, and there’s a whole lot of work to be carried out,” Schale stated.
However the efforts are underway, together with the Florida Democratic Occasion’s Pendulum initiative, a year-round organizing program that Fried stated has already contributed to vital good points in two deep-red congressional districts the place there have been off-cycle elections. Fried additionally pointed to the social gathering’s Entrance Porch Swing initiative, which goals to hearken to voters in rural Florida and meet them the place they’re.
Even with small wins in 2024, Fried stated there have been classes to be discovered from the general loss in 2024, together with tips on how to greatest join with voters.
Whereas Democrats had greater than $1 billion of earned media nationally, “On the finish of the cycle, most voters stated, ‘What’s the message?’ from the social gathering,” Fried stated.
“We missed the mark on breaking via to on a regular basis Floridians that aren’t watching us on the normal information stations,” she stated.
Strategists say connecting with voters is particularly key proper now as Democrats have struggled with getting their base to the poll bins in current election cycles.
“[Democrats] have gotten to subject candidates and rally round a disciplined, centered message of the place the voters are, and the place the voters are proper now could be they need options to this Republican politician-created affordability disaster,” Amandi stated. “If they will do these two issues, then they will place themselves to shock lots of people subsequent November.”
Strategists say that Democrats — from operatives to donors — should make investments money and time again into Florida in the event that they wish to see their social gathering in energy as soon as once more.
“Democrats haven’t got the posh of writing off Florida as a result of Florida is just going to proceed to play a critically essential function within the Electoral Faculty math as they’re solely going to realize electoral seats going ahead,” Amandi stated. “If you happen to cede states like Florida and Texas, you are in essence saying you are ceding any pathway to win the White Home as a Democrat.”