IRBIL, Iraq — From overseas, Iranian Kurdish dissident teams have been watching intently for signs that Iran’s theocracy could falter in its grip on the country, battered by Israeli airstrikes within the intense, 12-day warfare till a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire halted the preventing.
Israel launched the strikes on June 13, drawing Iranian missiles that focused Israel. But it surely was not till the US inserted itself into the warfare and hit Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday, together with with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, that the warfare got here to a watershed second.
Now, with the delicate ceasefire holding and lots of Iranians making an attempt to return to a traditional life, questions swirl about whether or not and the way a lot the warfare has weakened Iran’s clerical rule, in place because the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
A handful of Iranian Kurdish teams — many with a distinctly militant previous — have lengthy discovered a secure haven in northern Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish area, however their presence has been some extent of friction between the central authorities in Baghdad and Tehran.
Iraq in 2023 reached an agreement with Iran to disarm the groups and transfer them from their bases close to the border areas with Iran — the place they probably posed an armed problem to Tehran — into camps designated by Baghdad.
Their armed bases have been shut down and their motion inside Iraq restricted, however the teams haven’t totally given up their weapons.
Officers with two distinguished Iranian Kurdish teams in Iraq informed The Related Press they’re making an attempt to prepare politically to make sure that they might not be sidelined ought to the administration in Iran lose its maintain on energy.
When requested if their teams have been getting ready an armed rebellion, they both denied it or averted a direct response.
President Donald Trump floated the thought of “regime change” in Tehran within the wake of the U.S. strikes, solely to have his administration later say that was not the objective. Among the Kurdish dissidents say they anticipate no speedy upheaval in Iran’s ruling theocracy.
“Among the events assume this warfare between Iran and Israel is an efficient alternative for us” to advance the Kurdish trigger, stated Khalil Naderi, spokesperson for the Kurdistan Freedom Celebration, or PAK, a separatist Iranian Kurdish group primarily based in Iraq.
However Naderi disagreed with that premise. “The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran to guard themselves from its weapons, not for Kurdish rights,” he stated.
Any untimely armed mobilization on their half might endanger each the Kurdish teams and the delicate safety of the Kurdish areas, each in Iraq and throughout the border in Iran, Naderi stated.
His stand was a distinction to that of PAK chief Hussein Yazdanpanah, who days after the outbreak of the Israel-Iran warfare, referred to as on X for Kurdish youth to rise towards the authorities in Tehran.
“Assault the enemy, its facilities, and its amenities” and “avenge the blood” of their fallen, Yazdanpanah posted.
And final week in Washington, the place he had been pushing U.S. officers to incorporate the Kurds in plans for a possible “day after” in Iran, Abdullah Mohtadi, the pinnacle of the leftist Komala Celebration from Iran’s Kurdish areas, stated he hopes the Israel-Iran warfare might signify a turning level.
“Battle can result in inside home change,” he stated. “We hope that this time this would be the case.”
Mohtadi denied that any exterior participant, together with the U.S. and Israel, had inspired Kurdish teams to take up arms. However he did not rule out the chance that they might.
“We haven’t in the mean time referred to as for an rebellion, or we haven’t referred to as for an armed battle, however we’re monitoring developments very intently,” he stated.
Mohtadi maintained that Komala has averted an armed battle for almost 30 years and that its camps in northern Iraq are purely for “self protection.”
Each Komala and the PAK, in addition to one other exiled Kurdish group, the Democratic Celebration of Iranian Kurdistan or KDPI, have fought Iranian authorities previously — but in addition generally fought towards one another.
The teams have totally different approaches to the query of Kurdish separatism. PAK advocates for an unbiased Kurdish state, whereas Komala and KDPI need a system in Iran much like that in northern Iraq, the place Iraqi Kurds have a semiautonomous and self-governed area.
Iran has often launched strikes on the Iranian Kurdish dissidents, however none in the course of the Israel-Iran warfare this month.
The dissident teams are strolling a nice line, balancing the variations amongst themselves and with their hosts in Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds and the Iraqi authorities in Baghdad — neither of which they need to antagonize.
Regardless of having shared grievances over the marginalization of Kurds in Iran, the Iranian Kurdish events haven’t been capable of construct a consensus
“We haven’t been capable of unite, despite the fact that we wish to,” Naderi stated.
In March, forward of Nowruz, the Persian New Year, the Kurdish dissident teams had deliberate to “meet and focus on” Kurdish rights and future, however plans fell by means of. Even now, he stated, coordination stays elusive.
Kawsar Fattahi, a central committee member of Komala, stated the dissidents shouldn’t plan for “the autumn of the regime, however on what is going to occur after that.”
“As a result of our objective is to rebuild a brand new Iran,” she stated.
Mohtadi, the Komala chief, stated he has tried to reassure Washington that his group just isn’t separatist however desires a “democratic, secular federal Iran the place the rights of Kurds and different ethnic teams are protected by the brand new structure.”
He denied anybody is pushing Komala into armed battle.
“We aren’t puppets,” Mohtadi stated. “No person has requested us to rise (up). We are going to determine when is the precise time.”
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Knickmeyer reported from Washington.