Senate Republicans concern Elon Musk’s beef with President Trump may grow to be a wild-card issue that might price them seats in 2026 if Musk follows via on his risk to create a brand new political celebration to compete with the GOP.
GOP lawmakers word that third-party candidates have swung presidential and Senate races up to now and fear that Musk’s bid to determine an “America Get together” is prone to peel off extra Republicans than Democratic voters in key races.
Musk, if he strikes ahead along with his plans, is anticipated to make decreasing the federal debt a key plank of his new celebration, a difficulty that historically appeals to conservative voters. The tech mogul additionally has threatened to assist major challenges in opposition to self-described Republican fiscal conservatives who voted for Trump’s One Large Lovely Invoice Act.
The billionaire created a giant political headache for Republicans final month by trashing Trump’s megabill as a “disgusting abomination” and warning it could “destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs in America.”
Whereas GOP lawmakers doubt that America Get together candidates may truly win seats in Congress, they fear Musk-backed, third-party candidates may play spoiler roles and swing shut races to Democrats.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) warned that Musk may price Republicans unified management of the White Home and Congress, which they used this 12 months to chop taxes, slash Medicaid spending and beef up border safety, amongst different accomplishments.
Requested about Musk’s formation of the America Get together, Johnson provided a blunt reply: “If he desires to make sure by no means returning to a prepandemic degree of spending, by no means balancing our finances, that may be a superb factor to do.”
In different phrases, Johnson thinks that Musk will wind up imperiling Republican candidates and future management of policymaking.
“He’d be splitting our celebration,” he mentioned. “We even have some folks involved in regards to the deficit, Democrats don’t.”
Johnson mentioned it’s “apparent” that Musk’s political celebration would damage Republicans greater than Democrats and he warned that fellow Republicans have to take the debt extra significantly forward of the midterm election.
“We higher get our act collectively when it comes to decreasing spending in our celebration,” he mentioned.
A Quinnipiac College ballot of 1,265 registered voters nationwide final month discovered that 62 p.c of Republicans have a good opinion of Musk whereas 29 p.c of independents and solely 3 p.c of Democrats considered him favorably.
Third-party candidates have bedeviled Republicans in key Senate races up to now, notably in Montana, the place some Republicans blamed Libertarians Rick Breckenridge and Dan Cox for serving to former Sen. Jon Tester (D) win reelection in 2018 and 2012.
Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson and America First Get together candidate Thomas Leager could have price Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde a possible win over Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) within the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race.
Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a former chair of the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee, mentioned third-party candidates have “affected the outcomes of elections” however famous “the third celebration has by no means grow to be the bulk celebration.”
He mentioned the “private nature” of the latest feuding between Musk and Trump may make it appear to many citizens that Musk’s push for a brand new celebration is “extra a private vendetta than a political cost.”
Moran mentioned it’s one thing to fret about as a result of “politics is an ever-changing sea of voters, and one wants to concentrate to traits.
“There are alternatives for folks to seize the voters in methods that you could be not even consider at this time,” he mentioned.
Whereas third-party candidates have typically failed to interrupt out of single-digit assist on Election Day, Musk’s skill to pour tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} — or tons of of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} — right into a race or an election may make Musk-backed candidates immediately formidable.
“Cash is a vital issue. Elon Musk has the potential of funding and financing campaigns and candidates. It’s one of many issues that challengers typically are missing, it’s the assets essential to get their message out to grow to be identified.”
“Cash is commonly a figuring out consider conducting that,” he mentioned.
Musk spent greater than $290 million on the 2024 election, in accordance with information filed with the Federal Election Fee.
Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R), whose North Carolina Senate seat is rated a “toss-up” in 2026, mentioned third-party candidacies have a tendency to harm Republicans.
“Each time this has been tried earlier than, it usually, most often, it has harmed Republican outcomes,” he mentioned.
He mentioned Musk can be higher off working inside the two-party system to deliver in regards to the adjustments he desires.
A Republican senator who requested anonymity mentioned Musk may very well be “like a Ross Perot and be a spoiler within the election.” Perot in 1992 ran as an impartial candidate and received 19 p.c of the vote. Some Republicans blamed him for serving to former President Clinton win Georgia, Ohio and Montana, amongst different states.
The Republican mentioned Musk’s anger at Trump is misplaced and that he’s probably performing out of frustration over his tumultuous stint as a particular authorities worker within the Trump administration.
“I feel he had unrealistic expectations about what authorities can do and how briskly it might transfer when you could have a authorities the dimensions of our federal authorities,” the senator added, making an attempt to elucidate why Musk now desires to tackle Trump and the Republican Get together.
Musk final month threatened to assist major challenges in opposition to Republicans who ran for workplace on pledges to chop federal deficits after which voted final week for Trump’s “massive, stunning invoice.”
He mentioned they need to “hold their head in disgrace” and vowed: “And they’re going to lose their major subsequent 12 months whether it is the very last thing I do on this Earth.”
Senate Majority Chief John Thune (R-S.D.) on Wednesday acknowledged that Musk-backed candidates may siphon votes away from Republicans if he will get the America Get together going. However he argued that the political impact is tough to foretell and that Democrats may lose votes as properly.
“May it? Certain,” Thune mentioned relating to whether or not Musk may have an effect on Senate races subsequent 12 months. “We’ve seen that in historical past the place third events have affected ends in nationwide campaigns, however my assumption is he most likely attracts some [votes] from each.
“I feel there are a variety of annoyed Democrats on the market who suppose their celebration has moved too far to the left. So, we’ll see. It’s too early to inform, nevertheless it’s a free nation,” he mentioned.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who faces a aggressive major subsequent 12 months, wasn’t keen to speak about Musk’s potential position in Senate races, solely observing that Musk is free to do what he desires.
“It’s a free nation. It wouldn’t be the primary, I assume we had a third-party [candidate] when Ross Perot ran,” he mentioned. “He doesn’t want permission from anyone to do it.”
Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist, mentioned Musk may have an outsized influence on future management of Congress by specializing in a handful of key Senate and Home races.
“He may recruit folks beneath the American Get together and completely fund them, and so they’re going to be aggressive,” he mentioned.
“If Elon Musk’s purpose is to make Trump pay, all he has to do is goal 15 Home races, a half-dozen Senate races — spend $30 million on every Senate race, $15 million on every Home race, he can take each the Home and the Senate,” he mentioned, arguing that well-funded candidates in key states can have an effect on the end result of races if not win them outright.
Jarding mentioned “if in case you have cash, you might be aggressive.”
He mentioned that if Musk-backed third-party candidates win seats, they may grow to be a swing bloc within the narrowly divided Home.
“This man can basically change this subsequent election, I don’t care what he calls his celebration. He simply has to put in writing a test,” he mentioned.