-
David Schoenfield
The primary half of the MLB season is within the books. Effectively truly, we have performed practically 60% of the schedule, however everybody nonetheless denotes the primary and second halves of the season across the All-Star break.
So, now that the All-Star festivities are behind us, let’s look again on the storylines that dominated the primary half and the way they may play out the remainder of the season.
Earlier than we start, let’s hand out some honorable mentions that did not make our checklist of the highest 10 storylines: the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves’ disappointing seasons; the Houston Astros rolling to a lead within the AL West regardless of Yordan Alvarez‘s damage, shedding Alex Bregman and buying and selling Kyle Tucker; Jacob Wilson‘s .332 common as a rookie; Matthew Boyd‘s unimaginable yr for the Chicago Cubs; Jacob deGrom‘s comeback; Eugenio Suarez‘s four-homer recreation; and Denzel Clarke‘s dazzling catches in middle subject for the Athletics.
OK, now let’s dig into the highest 10 storylines of the 2025 season to this point.
1. Chaos within the American League East
The AL East has gone by way of sufficient plot twists this season to fill a complete collection of David Baldacci novels — and we’ve not even reached August.
The New York Yankees appeared as if they might run away with the division early, constructing a seven-game lead in late Could, however they’ve gone 11-18 since June 13 and have dropped to second place, making a panic amongst their followers. The Toronto Blue Jays, then again, received 10 in a row in late June and early July to surge into first. The Tampa Bay Rays, enjoying in a spring coaching facility, went 33-22 in Could and June — a interval through which they had been second within the majors in runs scored — however have gone 3-9 in July to fall into fourth place. The Baltimore Orioles? They fired their manager and would possibly commerce half the staff on the commerce deadline.
However the Boston Red Sox have been the biggest melodrama of all. The Rafael Devers saga, which started in spring coaching, included complaints about his DH role, a terrible start at the plate, some scorching hitting, a refusal to play first base after which concluded with the shocking trade to the San Francisco Giants, which got here hours after Boston had simply accomplished a three-game sweep of the Yankees. A six-game shedding streak quickly adopted because the Crimson Sox group was dripping with dangerous karma.
However that is baseball, the place the narrative can flip in a rush: The Crimson Sox received their ultimate 10 video games heading into the All-Star break, have climbed right into a wild-card place, are solely three video games out of first place and simply obtained Bregman again from the injured checklist.
“I do assume there’s an actual probability that on the finish of the season, we’re trying again and we have received extra video games than we in any other case would’ve,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow advised reporters after the Devers commerce. He could be proper — no less than if the pitching can ship the best way it did in that 10-game win streak, when the workers had a 1.90 ERA.
Will it stay a storyline? Completely. Certain, the expanded wild-card race makes division races much less essential than they as soon as had been, however groups nonetheless need to win the division and keep away from that best-of-three wild-card spherical. Plus, the potential of a four-team race makes the AL East essentially the most thrilling race to comply with within the second half. Although all 4 groups may nonetheless make the playoffs, that is no assure because the Seattle Mariners presently maintain one of many wild-card spots forward of the Rays.
2. The all of the sudden very attention-grabbing NL Central
The Cubs have a powerhouse lineup with MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, fellow All-Star starter Tucker, the scorching-hot Michael Busch, who’s fifth within the majors in OPS, and Seiya Suzuki, who has 25 residence runs and 77 RBIs. They’ve an All-Star pitcher in Boyd, Shota Imanaga has a 2.65 ERA and the bullpen has been excellent. And that is not even mentioning their catchers, who’ve 20 residence runs, 65 RBIs and the second-highest OPS within the majors.
Regardless of all of that, the Milwaukee Brewers are just one recreation again.
How is that attainable? They discover methods to attain runs with out counting on the lengthy ball; they’re twenty third within the majors in residence runs however seventh in runs scored, with their velocity and aggressiveness on the bases serving to there. As all the time, they someway discover sufficient pitching, and the anonymous-but-hard-throwing bullpen threesome of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Jared Koenig has become one of the crucial imposing late-game trios.
Will it stay a storyline? Sure, the Brewers are completely the actual deal, working off seven wins in a row earlier than the All-Star break. They do start the second half with a troublesome journey in opposition to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mariners, with a house collection in opposition to the Cubs after that to shut out July, however there is a purpose the Brewers have made the playoffs in six of the previous seven seasons: This staff is aware of find out how to win.
They’ve additionally just lately added two key gamers in Brandon Woodruff, lastly again from shoulder surgical procedure, and rookie flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski, who’s 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 5 begins, dominating together with his fastball that averages 99.3 mph. Certainly, Misiorowski looms as one of the crucial essential gamers the remainder of the best way: If he retains this going and with Woodruff trying like his pre-injury type — 18 strikeouts and no walks in his two begins — the trio of Freddy Peralta, Woodruff and Misiorowski might be a scary rotation to face in October.
Everyone knows the small print of this one:
-
Behind curtain No. 1: Cal Raleigh, on tempo for an AL-record 64 residence runs (he presently has 38) and placing collectively maybe the best offensive season ever for a catcher.
-
Behind curtain No. 2: Aaron Judge, on tempo for 11.8 WAR and placing collectively one of many biggest offensive seasons within the sport’s historical past.
It is onerous to consider a catcher would possibly hit 50-something residence runs — or extra — and not win the MVP award, however that is what would possibly occur. Voters are WAR-focused lately, and Choose has an opportunity for less than the sixth 12-WAR season by a place participant (three of the earlier 5 are by Babe Ruth). That in all probability makes Choose the favourite, particularly since he isn’t far behind Raleigh with 35 residence runs and might be one in every of his patented scorching streaks away from getting again on tempo for an additional 60-homer season.
Will it stay a storyline? Let’s hope so. Bear in mind, we had been in an identical state of affairs a yr in the past with an epic three-player race between Choose, Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson, solely to see Choose draw back to an eventual unanimous choice over Witt. It is onerous to think about Raleigh holding it going at this price, particularly given his heavy workload behind the plate (he is third within the majors in innings caught), and he has been a bit of one dimensional in July (he has solely 5 hits, all of them residence runs). Choose is the heavy betting favourite at -600 to +325 for Raleigh, in keeping with ESPN Bet.
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the Nationwide League MVP race
As a rookie in 2024, Crow-Armstrong hit .237/.286/.384 with 10 residence runs in 123 video games — not precisely numbers that may have projected him as an MVP candidate the next yr. However he has emerged as not solely one of the crucial thrilling gamers within the majors, however one of the crucial helpful as nicely. With 25 residence runs and 27 stolen bases, he is on tempo for a 40/40 season, and with assist from some superlative defensive metrics, he leads the NL in each Baseball-Reference WAR (5.2) and FanGraphs WAR. (4.9), beating James Wood (4.4) within the former and Shohei Ohtani (4.3) within the latter.
Crow-Armstrong would definitely be one of the crucial shocking MVP winners ever, and one of the crucial distinctive. His .302 OBP could be the bottom for an MVP place participant, beating Zoilo Versalles’ .319 mark from 1965. Solely 10 MVP winners have had an OBP under .350. He’d even be the primary middle fielder to win NL MVP since Andrew McCutchen in 2013.
Will it stay a storyline? Sure. With Crow-Armstrong’s ultra-aggressive strategy on the plate (he has the very best chase price within the majors amongst certified batters), it figured pitchers would ultimately work out find out how to exploit that. However they have not to this point and PCA, whereas not possessing big uncooked energy, continues to barrel up baseballs. Looming in his rearview mirror within the MVP race: Ohtani, who has now added pitching to his repertoire and is slowly working as much as a starter’s workload. He leads the NL in residence runs, slugging, runs scored, OPS and whole bases. ESPN Wager has made him the favourite at -700, with Crow-Armstrong at +750. Maintain your eye on Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker as nicely.
5. The Dodgers are unbeatable … no, they’re simply excellent … truly, they’re mediocre
That 8-0 begin, following the offseason additions of Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and Tanner Scott, created discuss that the Dodgers might be one of the greatest teams of all time. Effectively, they are not.
Regardless of an inconsistent first half, one filled with extra pitching accidents and a few subpar performances from the likes of Mookie Betts and Michael Conforto, the Dodgers are nonetheless on tempo for 97 wins. A 2-7 droop heading into the break highlighted a few of their points: Betts has a sub-.700 OPS, Freddie Freeman is hitting .197 with one residence run over his previous 32 video games, Scott has seven blown saves, the rotation ranks simply twentieth within the majors in ERA (and final in innings pitched) and the bullpen ranks twenty fourth in ERA. Oh, and the Dodgers have churned by way of 35 completely different pitchers this season.
Will it stay a storyline? Examine again in October, when the Dodgers will attempt to turn into the primary staff because the 2000 Yankees to repeat as World Sequence champs.
6. The Detroit Tigers have the very best report in baseball
Nearly as good because the Tigers have appeared, having the very best report (59-38) within the majors on the All-Star break was nonetheless sudden: They had been 18th in our preseason Energy Rankings, with a projected report of 83-79, and solely 11 of our 28 voters picked Detroit to win the division. Tarik Skubal has been nice, as anticipated, however no one had Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry making the All-Star staff on their bingo card. Gleyber Torres, with a .387 OBP, has been among the best offseason signings, and former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize are having their finest seasons.
Will it stay a storyline? The Tigers ought to stay within the race for finest report the remainder of the best way. However their ultimate collection earlier than the break uncovered a possible weak spot. The Mariners swept the three-game collection in Detroit, scoring 35 runs — 23 of which got here in opposition to the bullpen. Tommy Kahnle, a part of the late-game duo with Will Vest, gave up 4 runs Saturday and three Sunday. Vest blew a 4-3 lead within the eighth Sunday, earlier than Kahnle gave up back-to-back homers within the ninth. The Tigers will little question be searching for some reduction assist on the commerce deadline.
7. Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes and an unimaginable season for pitchers
Skubal and Skenes began the All-Star Recreation — and that pair has been main the best way in what has been a stellar season for beginning pitchers. On the break, we had 19 certified pitchers with an ERA below 3.00, which might match 2022 as essentially the most since 2014 (when there have been 21). There are one other 5 pitchers, who aren’t presently certified, with no less than 80 innings and an ERA below 3.00, so the whole may climb by the top of the season. 4 of these pitchers additionally had an imposing strikeout price above 30%: Skubal (33.4%), Zack Wheeler (33.0%), Garrett Crochet (31.2%) and Hunter Brown (31.1%). MacKenzie Gore, with a 3.02 ERA, can be above the 30% mark.
Skenes has been the bad-luck pitcher of the season, possibly of the century: He is 4-8 regardless of an MLB-best 2.01 ERA, however he would possibly nonetheless be the Cy Younger favourite. He may turn into the primary Cy Younger winner with a shedding report (Jacob deGrom went 10-9 with the Mets in 2018 and Felix Hernandez went 13-12 with the Mariners in 2010).
Will it stay a storyline? Certain. With so many pitchers having nice seasons, Skubal and Skenes hardly have the Cy Younger Awards wrapped up, with Crochet and Wheeler primarily in a statistical impasse with them proper now. Brown was within the AL combine earlier than giving up 10 runs in his ultimate two begins earlier than the break. Keep watch over deGrom, who’s 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA and has already pitched his most innings since 2019.
In his first month with the Mets, Soto hit .241/.368/.384 with solely three residence runs. Then he hit .219 in Could. However the Mets had been successful, and the statistical proof confirmed that Soto was hitting the ball onerous and taking his walks — which means, it was actually the identical outdated Soto, besides the hits simply weren’t falling. Since June 1, he has hit .311/.455/.659 with 14 residence runs and now ranks among the many league leaders in lots of classes. Regardless of the gradual begin, he is on tempo for six.5 WAR, which is not fairly what he did with the Yankees final season (7.9) however is true according to his profession common per 162 video games (6.3). In different phrases, he is the identical Juan Soto, besides his finest hitting has come because the Mets have scuffled after their scorching begin.
Will it stay a storyline? With the Mets battling for the NL East title with the Philadelphia Phillies, you wager. One factor to look at: Whereas the general offensive numbers are creeping again into typical Soto territory, he has hit solely .183/.330/.390 with runners in scoring place and .176/.337/.340 with males on base. In line with Baseball-Reference, he has a .783 OPS in high-leverage conditions, .773 in medium leverage and 1.053 in low leverage. The Mets are paying Soto some huge cash to provide in these high-leverage moments, so if they’re to beat out the Phillies, he might want to decide it up in these conditions.
9. Younger sluggers burst onto the scene
We noticed James Wood and Junior Caminero within the Residence Run Derby, and each are having excellent first full seasons within the majors. Wooden has 24 residence runs and ranks eighth within the majors in OPS. Caminero has 23 residence runs, however not the general offensive numbers that Wooden has. A yr in the past, Nick Kurtz had simply been drafted within the first spherical by the Athletics out of Wake Forest and now he has mashed 17 residence runs in 58 video games after starting the season in Triple-A. Over his previous 26 video games, he has hit .295/.385/.737 with 12 residence runs and appears as if he is creating into among the best energy hitters within the recreation.
Nonetheless seeking to get on observe is Jac Caglianone, additionally in his first yr out of school. He reached the majors with extra hype than Kurtz however has struggled with a .140 common and 4 residence runs by way of 35 video games, though he flashed his light-tower energy with one blast of 466 ft. These gamers are all 22 years outdated. The sport is in good fingers.
Will it stay a storyline? Sure and no. Caminero’s Rays are the one staff within the playoff hunt proper now, although Caglianone’s Kansas City Royals are shut sufficient to doubtlessly get again into the wild-card chase. Wooden’s season has type of flown below the radar enjoying for the Washington Nationals, however he has an OPS+ of 160. Within the wild-card period since 1995, solely 5 gamers of their age-22 season have reached that mark: Mike Trout (2014), Bryce Harper (2015), and Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. all in 2021. That is not dangerous firm to be a part of.
10. What number of video games will the Colorado Rockies lose?
After a 9-50 begin left them on tempo to lose 137 video games, it appeared as if the Rockies would possibly shatter the Chicago White Sox‘s trendy report of 121 losses from final season. The Rockies received three in a row at that time and had one other four-game successful streak later in June, however then went 4-14 of their ultimate 18 video games earlier than the break. That left them with a 22-74 report, nonetheless on tempo to complete 37-125. They have performed a bit of higher: That they had a minus-77 run differential in March/April and minus-106 in Could however had been minus-38 in June. They’re again to minus-32 to this point in July, with losses of 10-2, 10-2, 10-3 and 9-3 to this point this month. It is unattainable to know which path this may go the remainder of the best way.
Will it stay a storyline? It seems so. It would come all the way down to the wire, and the Rockies end the season with journeys to Seattle and San Francisco.