The AFC South has seen an excellent quantity of parity in latest seasons, as there have been three totally different division winners over the previous 4 seasons, with the Houston Texans in 2023-24, the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022 and the Tennessee Titans in 2021. In the meantime, the Indianapolis Colts have not completed atop the AFC South standings since 2014, again when Andrew Luck was beneath heart. So let’s preview the AFC South and take a look at which bets have robust worth from the SportsLine Projection Mannequin.
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AFC South Preview: Chaos, Ceiling, and a Complete Lot of Parity
The AFC South stays one of many NFL’s most unpredictable divisions, the place parity reigns and playoff hopes hinge on well being, turnovers, and rookie growth. Let’s break down every staff’s trajectory heading into the season.
| OUTCOME | HOUSTON | JACKSONVILLE | INDIANAPOLIS | TENNESSEE |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +115, 46.5% | 48% | -210, 67.7% | 70.8% | -230, 69.7% | 85.5% | -470, 82.5% | 81.5% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +270, 27% | 19.5% | +390, 20.4% | 19.1% | +420, 19.2% | 9.7% | +700, 12.5% | 13.2% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +410, 19.6% | 21.8% | +750, 11.8% | 8% | +800, 11.1% | 4% | +1600, 5.9% | 4.3% |
| LOSE AFC CHAMP | +1000, 9.1% | 7% | +2200, 4.3% | 1.6% | +2100, 4.5% | 0.5% | +4900, 2% | 0.8% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +2200, 4.3% | 2.3% | +5000, 2% | 0.4% | +5500, 1.8% | 0.2% | +12000, 0.8% | 0.2% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +2400, 4% | 1.4% | +7000, 1.4% | 0.1% | +7000, 1.4% | 0.1% | +17000, 0.6% | 0% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Daring Signifies Mannequin Betting Worth | ||||
The Texans are the favourite however are nonetheless plus cash to repeat as division champs, displaying how a lot parity there’s within the division. Joe Mixon’s damage could possibly be greater than offset by the pickup of Nick Chubb—if Chubb returns to type. Final yr, he averaged simply 3.3 yards per carry, a steep drop from his profession 5.5 YPC. That is a pink flag. The receiving corps can also be in flux. Tank Dell is damage, Stefon Diggs walked, and Nico Collins—whereas proficient—has a historical past of lacking 3–4 video games per season. The staff is relying closely on rookies to fill the gaps.
Regardless of these points, the protection is enhancing, and there is optimism round C.J. Stroud bouncing again from down yr 2. We do not assume he regressed as badly as most assume and as a lot because the stats in Yr 2 vs. Yr 1 indicated. He had a a lot harder schedule in yr 2 and had a few of his worst moments on the largest levels.
Even with our issues, the perfect wager for Houston is for them to win the AFC South at +110 on DraftKings, which means 47.6%, which is beneath our 54% in sims. Sign up for DraftKings here and recover from $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets immediately:
Oddsmakers have the Jaguars pegged pretty, however there’s cause to imagine they may outperform expectations. Final season, Jacksonville was tormented by a scarcity of compelled turnovers. They solely compelled 3 turnovers in street video games final season on their technique to a 1-8 street document and a -13.6 per sport level differential. What occurs in the event that they get 1 turnover per sport?
This yr, the ceiling is excessive, particularly at huge receiver. If they’ll merely be common within the turnover division, they are a robust wager to go over once more. The second half of final season noticed them leaning closely on rookies, which contributed to defensive lapses—most notably permitting a staggering 420 yards per sport on the street. That quantity is nearly unimaginable to copy, and regression to the imply ought to assist.
There was lots of optimistic steam on Jacksonville, so proper now there aren’t any strains with optimistic mannequin worth, so let’s go forward and take the +390 for them to lose within the Wild Card spherical at 19% in sims on FanDuel. New customers can get $150 in bonus bets at FanDuel now:
The Colts are in a wierd place. They’ve labeled Daniel Jones a “co-starter,” which is never an excellent signal. If Anthony Richardson is not firmly established by Yr Three, it begins to really feel like a Trey Lance scenario in San Francisco—excessive potential, low payoff.
The passing sport is such a multitude that the main fantasy WR on the staff is Josh Downs, who’s WR44 in response to the Fantasy Football As we speak Consensus. I really like Tyler Warren, however final season the mixed TE output in Indy wouldn’t even have been a prime 30 fantasy TE final season.
It is not a enjoyable wager, however at -230, 69.7% odds on FanDuel and an 85.5% incidence in sims, we’ll take the Colts to overlook the playoffs. In the event that they lose to the Dolphins in Week 1, their possibilities drop to only 9%. Even with a win, they’d be at 81% to overlook the playoffs.
Two years in the past it was C.J. Stroud statistically having a “as soon as in a technology” rookie season to return out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Final season it was Jayden Daniels statistically having a “as soon as in a technology” rookie season to return out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Each QBs are nice, however the largest cause they made the playoffs was that they had a very simple schedule. Tennessee has the best schedule within the AFC primarily based on our mannequin’s energy rankings, so may No. 1 general choose Cam Ward observe in these footsteps? Get the latest Bet365 bonus here:
I feel placing a sprinkle on the Titans to win the AFC South at +800 on bet365 (implies 11%, whereas the sim has 13.4%) is a worthwhile longshot play.