The Apple retailer on fifth Avenue is seen in New York on April 8, 2025.
Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty Photographs
Forecasts for Apple and Samsung cargo development this 12 months had been sharply slashed by Counterpoint Analysis on Wednesday amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff coverage.
The analysis outfit mentioned it had revised down its 2025 international smartphone cargo development forecast to 1.9% year-on-year from 4.2% beforehand, citing “renewed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs.”
U.S. President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from nations all over the world in April, however exempted smartphones and different electronics from those duties days later.
Nonetheless, with tariff uncertainty looming, Counterpoint Analysis slashed its development forecast for the world’s two largest smartphone gamers. Apple shipments are anticipated to develop 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, down from a earlier forecast of 4%, in accordance with Counterpoint Analysis. Samsung shipments are actually anticipated to see no development this 12 months, in contrast with the 1.7% rise that was beforehand projected.
However it isn’t simply tariffs behind these revised forecasts.
“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung due to their publicity to the US market. Though tariffs have performed a task in our forecast revisions, we’re additionally factoring in weakened demand not simply in North America however throughout Europe and elements of Asia,” Counterpoint Analysis Affiliate Director Liz Lee mentioned in a press launch.
Apple’s downgraded cargo development shall be pushed by the iPhone 16 collection of gadgets, in addition to by rising market clients shopping for dearer telephones, Counterpoint mentioned.
Shipments usually are not equal to gross sales and signify the variety of gadgets that smartphones distributors ship to retailers. They’re one measure of the demand that smartphone distributors expect.
Apple particularly has come beneath scrutiny amid speak of U.S. tariffs on China, the place the U.S. large makes 90% of its iPhones. Apple has ramped up its shipments to the U.S. from India, the place it has been steadily rising manufacturing of its flagship product.
However this has additionally drawn the ire of Trump, who final month mentioned that he would not need Apple constructing iPhones in India, and that they need to be manufacturing them within the U.S.
Counterpoint Analysis flagged Huawei as a shiny spot within the sea of lowered forecasts, with the Chinese language tech large anticipated to notch a 11% year-on-year cargo development in 2025.
“We’re seeing an easing round sourcing bottlenecks for key elements at the very least by means of the remainder of the 12 months, which ought to assist Huawei seize substantial share within the mid-to-lower-end segments at dwelling,” Ethan Qi, affiliate director at Counterpoint Analysis, mentioned in a press launch.
Huawei has seen a rebound in smartphone gross sales in its dwelling market of China since late 2023, the place a breakthrough in semiconductors for its devices, helped revive its fortunes.