How Excessive Will It Go on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that appears at artists aiming for the highest of the Billboard charts, and the methods behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated June 14, we take a look at a handful of albums prone to influence the highest tier of the chart – a pair model new, and a pair lately revitalized, led by a probable rebound from the most important pop star on the earth.  

Taylor Swift, Fame (Huge Machine): On a day of huge new releases, final Friday (Might 30) was nonetheless dominated by the information that Taylor Swift had formally acquired her personal masters. Billboard reported from sources that she paid round $360 million for the acquisition from non-public fairness agency Shamrock Capital, which had acquired the catalog in late 2020 from Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings, after Braun had purchased Swift’s previous label Huge Machine the yr earlier than. Braun’s preliminary buy, and Swift’s unfavourable response to her skilled adversary having such an enormous stake in her historical past, had in fact impressed all the Taylor’s Model challenge — which led to Swift re-recording 4 of her first six albums over the course of 2021-2023, together with quite a few period-appropriate rarities. That endeavor not solely proved wildly profitable for Swift, however performed a significant half in her 2020s ascension to a stage of solo superstardom not seen earlier than this century.  

One of many two Huge Machine-era albums she had but to get to together with her Taylor’s Model sequence was Fame, the divisive 2017 album that adopted each her final pop breakthrough with 2014’s 1989 and the backlash that ensued, notably after her back-and-forth feuding with Kanye West and Kim Kardashian. Together with the announcement of the acquisition of her masters, Swift also revealed that Fame (Taylor’s Model) had been essentially the most difficult of the sequence for her to place collectively, as she discovered it troublesome to get again into the headspace of that album period — and thus had not even completed re-recording 1 / 4 of it. Followers may infer from her letter that now that Swift’s again catalog was as soon as once more her personal, she could be unlikely to complete re-recording the remainder of it anytime quickly. 

However whereas some followers could have been disenchanted that they’d not get the complete Fame (Taylor’s Model) package deal anytime quickly — which was so long-anticipated that the unique album bought a consumption bump a pair weeks in the past merely based mostly on rumors that she may reveal one thing about it on the AMAs — most had been able to revisit the unique album anyway. With no re-recording imminent, and Swift as soon as once more the proprietor of her again catalog, followers flocked to the unique Fame, leading to it leaping to the highest of the iTunes albums chart, and launching 5 of its tracks again onto the Spotify Every day Prime Songs USA chart for Saturday (Might 31).  

The main bump in gross sales and streams, for an album that was nonetheless rating at No. 78 on the Billboard 200 in its 349th week on the chart, may see the album make a significant rebound subsequent week. It’s unlikely to supplant Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Downside — however no album is, as Downside posted 286,000 items this week (in response to Luminate) in its second week atop the chart, and is prone to nonetheless be comfortably within the six figures in its third week, due to the 37-track set’s gargantuan streaming numbers. But it surely may get as excessive as the highest 5, possibly even to the runner-up spot, if fan enthusiasm maintains the additional we get away from Swift’s Friday announcement. (Swift may additionally maybe give gross sales a lift if she made the album obtainable on the market on her webstore — as of publishing, it was still not listed there.) 

Miley Cyrus, One thing Lovely (Columbia): Maybe Swift’s major competitors for the most important chart-crasher this week is her previous Hannah Montana: The Film co-star Miley Cyrus. The veteran pop celebrity returned on Friday together with her new LP One thing Lovely, the audio a part of a visible album challenge whose movie accompaniment is about to premiere on the Tribeca Movie Pageant this Friday (June 6). 

One thing Lovely follows 2023’s Countless Summer time Trip, and its galactically profitable lead single “Flowers,” which grew to become the most important chart hit of Cyrus’ profession and received her her first two Grammys. Up to now, not one of the advance releases from One thing Lovely seem like on anyplace close to a “Flowers” trajectory, nevertheless — the one considered one of them to even attain the Billboard Hot 100 to this point was official lead single “Finish of the World,” which debuted at No. 52 and fell off the chart after simply 4 weeks.  

Whereas One thing Lovely is unlikely to be a right away streaming blockbuster — as of midweek, none of its tracks seem on both the Spotify Every day Prime Songs USA or the Apple Music real-time charts — it ought to promote comparatively properly. To assist with that, the album is obtainable in six totally different vinyl variants (together with an artist webstore-exclusive signed model), in addition to commonplace and signed CDs and two deluxe branded boxed units with the CD and branded merch. On the very least, the set ought to prolong Miley’s streak of prime 5 albums on the Billboard 200 — which encompasses each considered one of her official studio releases courting again to 2007’s Meet Miley Cyrus, excepting 2015’s Miley Cyrus & Lifeless Petz, which was not initially given a industrial launch.  

SEVENTEEN, SEVENTEEN fifth Album ‘Pleased Burstday’ (Pledis/YG Plus): Additionally aiming for the highest 5 subsequent week is an act with much less stateside household-name recognition as Swift and Cyrus, however practically as a lot of a presence on the albums chart. SEVENTEEN has reached the Billboard 200’s prime 10 six instances already within the 2020s, and even gotten as excessive as No. 2 with two 2023 releases, the EP FML and the mini-album Seventeenth Heaven.  

The 13-member group is prone to return to the highest 10 subsequent week with its fifth full-length album, Pleased Burstday — a 16-track effort that features contributions from two of the most important U.S. hitmakers of the early Twenty first-century in Pharrell and Timbaland. Whereas SEVENTEEN has by no means been a significant drive on streaming within the U.S., the group are dependable high-sellers, and Burstday is obtainable for buy in a whopping 14 CD variants — all of which comprise collectible branded paper ephemera, a few of which is randomized. It must be sufficient for Burstday to be an actual contender for the Billboard 200’s runner-up spot, together with the Swift and Cyrus units.