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André Snellings
Caitlin Clark was the favourite to win the WNBA MVP award getting into the 2025 season however when she was dominated out for at the least two weeks with a quad harm, Napheesa Collier took the highest spot on the oddsboard. Collier is at the moment the overwhelming favourite to win MVP (-300), however Clark is about to return on Saturday towards the New York Liberty.
May she nonetheless get again within the MVP race? If that’s the case, is there any worth in betting on her at her present odds? Let’s discover.
All odds are correct as of time stamp. For the emerging ad odds go to ESPN BET.
Usually, the MVP award is given to a participant that maximizes the intersection between particular person manufacturing and workforce success. If we use fantasy scoring common because the metric for the previous and workforce win share for the latter, the final 10 gamers to win MVP have averaged at the least 40.2 FP/G and performed on groups that received 74.8% of their video games.
We’re roughly 20% of the best way by the season, with every workforce having performed about 9 or 10 of their 44 video games. There’s nonetheless loads of time for issues to alter, however at current there are 4 gamers with an affordable likelihood to suit the marks of an MVP.
Clark (+320) is third within the league with 41.5 FP/G, and her Fever have received 44.4% of their video games.
A’ja Wilson (+2000) is second within the league with 44.3 FP/G, and her Aces have received 50% of their video games.
Breanna Stewart (+3300) is twelfth within the league with 33.7 FP/G, simply behind teammate Sabrina Ionescu (33.8 FP/G, +10,000 to win MVP), however her Liberty are the final undefeated workforce with a 100% win fee.
At current, Collier is the one participant that might surpass the typical standards of an MVP in each metrics, which is why she is the prohibitive favourite. She is the most efficient participant within the league and performs for a workforce that only in the near past misplaced their first recreation.
Wilson and Stewart are each multiple-time MVP winners. Wilson’s manufacturing is far larger than the standard MVP winner, however her workforce is not successful on the identical tempo as earlier years, whereas Stewart’s workforce is defeating each opponent with out her having to provide MVP-level particular person numbers. Each are getting longshot odds, and might be value a flyer, however their outlooks must change to ensure that them to have a reputable likelihood at MVP this season.
After which there’s Clark. Previous to her harm, she was delivering the manufacturing of an MVP candidate. Her workforce was 2-2, however one among their losses was to the undefeated Liberty and the opposite was to an Atlanta Dream workforce that they defeated within the rematch. The Fever introduced in two high-level free brokers this offseason in Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner to affix Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell. Now that Clark is again, it is rather believable that the Fever might improve their win share and bolster her MVP case.
Collier must be the runaway favourite to win MVP however there’s nonetheless 80% of the season left to go. Clark is prone to solely enhance on her manufacturing (she averaged 43.7 FP/G over the past 28 video games of her rookie season) and the Fever have the perfect likelihood among the many groups with MVP candidates to enhance dramatically within the brief time period.
Clark can also be the most well-liked participant within the WNBA by a big margin, so any uptick in her manufacturing and enchancment for Fever on the courtroom will end in fast modifications to her odds within the MVP market.
It is unlikely that you will see Clark at +320 to win MVP once more if the Fever go on a successful streak.
If you happen to imagine in Clark and the Indiana Fever, there is not any higher time to wager on the famous person guard to win MVP than proper now.
She is clearly in an incredible place to enhance her odds and in case you do not feel snug going with a longshot like Wilson or Stewart, Clark gives the perfect remaining betting worth on the board.