Asian guests to Japan fell due to a manga prediction. Here is why

Customer curiosity in Japan plunged in June, amid a prophecy in a manga that predicted a “catastrophe” would strike Japan in July 2025.

The prediction was in a 2021 reprint of a Japanese comedian ebook, or manga, titled “Watashi ga Mita Mirai, Kanzenban” (which interprets to “The Future That I Noticed, Full Version”) by artist Ryo Tatsuki.

Within the authentic printing of the ebook in 1999, the duvet web page referenced a “catastrophe in March 2011.”

In March 2011, Japan suffered its strongest earthquake on report, the Nice Tohoku Earthquake, which brought on nearly 20,000 deaths and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear catastrophe.

The Amazon listing for the reprint said that the creator had “new prophetic desires” together with the “actual catastrophe will are available July 2025,” in keeping with a Google translation.

CN Yuen, managing director of Hong Kong-based journey company WWPKG informed CNBC that the rumor was extensively circulated in Hong Kong, the place it unfold over mainstream media, TV networks and thru YouTube influencers.

Guests arrivals from Hong Kong plunged 33.4% yr on yr in June, following an earlier 11.2% drop in Could, in keeping with Japan’s Nationwide Tourism Group.

Yuen mentioned his company has seen a 50% lower in bookings and inquiries in April and Could to Japan from final yr.

Vacationer arrivals from different Asian international locations additionally skilled slower progress. Arrivals from South Korea rose simply 3.8% in June in contrast with Could’s 11.8%. Arrivals from Taiwan slowed considerably as properly, from a 15.5% enhance in Could to 1.8% in June.

Abroad guests to Japan grew 24%, on common, from January to Could of this yr, in comparison with 2024. However June arrivals solely noticed a 7.6% enhance, in keeping with Japan’s journey statistics.

WWPKG’s Yuen mentioned he’s used to journey downturns associated to pure disasters, which often finish after the incident is over.

However “this time, it is totally different, as a result of nothing occurred really. It is solely a rumor, or prophecy,” he informed CNBC. “That is the primary time we have seen such an incident.”

Hong Kong and Japanese media reported earlier in July that Hong Kong airways reduce flights to some Japanese cities, together with Nagoya.

A January report from Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, citing the nation’s Headquarters for Earthquake Analysis Promotion, additionally warned that the probability of a megaquake within the subsequent 30 years had risen to 80%—a improvement that, mixed with the prediction, created a “excellent storm” to discourage vacationers, Yuen mentioned.

Nevertheless, Japan’s Meteorological Agency said: “It needs to be famous that the issuance of data indicating elevated potential for a Nankai Trough earthquake doesn’t essentially imply that one will really strike.”

JNTO knowledge confirmed that the share of Asian vacationers fell yr on yr in June, however that of Western international locations rose.

Consultants CNBC spoke to gave numerous causes, together with cultural ones.

“Manga is not only leisure; it’s extensively learn throughout age teams and carries a little bit of cultural authority in some Asian societies,” mentioned Zimbayah Kamble, a senior lecturer for hospitality at James Prepare dinner College.

That, mixed with reminiscences of previous disasters and the fact of Japan’s seismic vulnerability, imply that such warnings “resonate strongly” within the area, she mentioned.

Kiattipoom Kiatkawsin, affiliate professor of hospitality and tourism administration from the Singapore Institute of Administration, mentioned the speedy unfold of the rumors by social media platforms and the collectivist nature of many Asian societies led to a social amplification of perceived danger.

“Which means that even when some people have doubts, the collective response of their neighborhood or friends can considerably affect their choices, resulting in widespread behavioral adjustments, resembling journey cancelations,” Kiatkawsin mentioned.

“On this case, a fictional narrative amplified by social media may have created a compelling, if scientifically unfounded cause to defer journey,” he mentioned.

However each consultants additionally pointed to a extra extraordinary cause: the flexibleness of short-haul journey.

Kiatkawsin mentioned the prices of canceling the flights and lodge bookings are usually not perceived as a barrier anymore.

“If they don’t journey to Japan this time, they will go one other time with out a lot problem to rearrange once more,” he added.

Kiatkawsin mentioned he doesn’t count on the prediction will have an effect on Japan’s total journey outlook, provided that the prediction is restricted to the month of July.

— CNBC’s Kaela Ling contributed to this story.