As arguably probably the most promising American prospect since LeBron James, the highlight would have shined brightly on Cooper Flagg no matter his draft vacation spot.
Flagg touchdown on the Dallas Mavericks, following their unprecedented stroke of lottery luck within the wake of a season of stunning change, solely provides to the intrigue.
It additionally places Flagg within the uncommon place of being a No. 1 decide who might contribute to a successful workforce as a rookie.
“We’re in win-now mode, and so he provides to that, however he is additionally the way forward for the franchise,” Mavs common supervisor Nico Harrison stated at Flagg’s introductory information convention in July.
How a lot will the Mavs win in Flagg’s rookie season and past with the present core of getting older future Corridor of Famers? How quickly earlier than he is an All-Star? Are MVP awards and championships in Flagg’s future?
Our panel — composed of ESPN writers, reporters, editors and analysts — forecasts that and extra as Flagg prepares for his first NBA coaching camp.
1:50
What Cooper Flagg brings to the Dallas Mavericks
Take a look at one of the best performs from Duke freshman Cooper Flagg as he’s taken by the Dallas Mavericks with the No. 1 decide.
Flagg and the Mavericks will end _______ in 2025-26
A trick trivia query: Who was the final No. 1 decide to play within the playoffs as a rookie?
It is truly a tie: Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons did it along with the 2017-18 Philadelphia 76ers. “The Course of” lastly paid playoff dividends throughout Simmons’ redshirt rookie season, when the most important think about Philadelphia’s leap from 28 to 52 wins was Joel Embiid enjoying greater than twice as many video games as he did throughout his first three years within the NBA mixed.
So, sure, a novel set of circumstances is required for a No. 1 decide to get such an early style of playoff motion. Effectively, Flagg performs for the Mavericks — a franchise, months faraway from an NBA Finals run on the time, that dumped a perennial MVP contender getting into his prime in a commerce the GM proclaimed to be a win-now transfer, then limped into the lottery and cashed in 1.8% odds to land the highest decide. That qualifies as distinctive.
Flagg is projected to be an immediate starter, however he will not be anticipated to hold the workforce as a rookie surrounded by achieved veterans, most prominently former No. 1 decide and 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis, who was the headliner within the return package deal for Luka Doncic.
The most important issue within the Mavs’ playoff positioning, or lack thereof, could possibly be the affect made by one other former No. 1 decide and future Corridor of Famer. When will Kyrie Irving return from his torn left ACL? If it is this season, can he return to All-Star type for a workforce that wants his offensive creation? — Tim MacMahon
Exterior the postseason (No. 11-15): 3.8%
Within the play-in (7-10): 73.1%
Within the playoffs (5-6): 23.1%
Residence courtroom within the playoffs (4 or increased): 0%
What number of collection will Flagg, Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving win collectively in Dallas in his profession?
Practically two-thirds of our panelists consider Flagg and the Mavs will win two collection or fewer with this present core involving him, Davis and Irving. On the flip aspect, about 15% of our panelists took the upper finish of the estimate, saying Flagg and the core would win a minimum of 4 playoff collection.
Between Irving rehabbing the torn ACL he suffered in March and the truth that he and Davis are 33 and 32 years previous, respectively, the smaller estimation would appear rooted in logic. From an age perspectrive, the veterans are more likely to exit their bodily prime within the close to future.
The window for the Mavericks to win is now. However Irving figures to want time to spherical into type as soon as he is again. Equally, Flagg, regardless of his expertise and ability, continues to be a rookie — a stage at which even probably the most polished gamers are inclined to battle some or hit an eventual first-season wall. In fact, issues will not be restricted to this season alone. However the sooner the Mavs can land a collection victory with this core — and the earlier they will get pleasure from adequate well being to have all three of that group collectively on the courtroom — the higher it bodes for his or her possibilities of beating out the panel’s estimate. — Chris Herring
0: 7.7%
1: 30.8%
2: 26.9%
3: 19.2%
4: 3.8%
5: 7.7%
6 or extra: 3.8%
Flagg will make his first All-Star look in _____
As our panel forecasts, it’s exceedingly unlikely that Flagg will likely be chosen as an All-Star as a rookie. Blake Griffin is the one rookie All-Star prior to now 20 years, and he had the advantage of a “redshirt” 12 months within the NBA, as he sat out his first season due to left knee surgical procedure. It is also unclear what subsequent 12 months’s All-Star rosters will appear like due to altering codecs. If the league adopts a USA vs. World method for the sport, then Flagg might face even better competitors via the deep American participant pool.
However second-year All-Stars are extra widespread, with eight such gamers prior to now eight years: Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. And a really giant portion of star-level gamers attain that degree by Yr 3, so our panel is assured that Flagg will match into that bucket, on the very least. — Zach Kram
2025-26: 3.8%
2026-27: 30.8%
2027-28: 57.7%
2028-29: 7.7%
1:21
Mavs fall regardless of Cooper Flagg’s stellar 31-point efficiency
Cooper Flagg bounces again with a 31-point efficiency because the Mavericks fall to the Spurs 76-67.
What number of MVP awards will Flagg win?
First off, let’s rip off the bandage of unlikelihood Flagg turns into the primary American to interrupt the present seven-year run of international-born gamers successful NBA MVP. Do not rely on it. American stars comparable to Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson are higher positioned to drag off that feat.
That is to not say that Flagg will not win MVP finally.
Nevertheless it’s additionally value noting that sources at NBA summer season league identified a few minor deficiencies in Flagg’s recreation that he’ll have to iron out over his first couple of years within the league to rise to the extent he is projected to succeed in. After that, a number of elements — which are past his management — come into play, together with general workforce success, media narratives and the way Flagg’s NBA friends are performing. Flagg possesses the background as probably the most promising American No. 1 decide since LeBron James and the all-around recreation that can draw the around-the-clock consideration consideration from MVP voters.
His two-way potential and aesthetically pleasing recreation make him a contender to win a number of MVPs over a protracted profession. However varied exterior elements muddle the potential image. Let’s keep in mind that former Mavericks franchise icon Luka Doncic continues to be searching for his first MVP over a profession that we have anticipated to provide a number of. — Michael C. Wright
0: 34.6%
1: 46.2%
2: 15.4%
3: 0%
4 or extra: 3.8%
What number of NBA titles will Flagg win?
It isn’t simple to win a title, even for a No. 1 decide. Flagg is the forty first No. 1 decide within the draft lottery period, and solely 10 of the primary 40 (25%) have gained titles. That whole may rise as youthful No. 1 picks mature — the final No. 1 decide who gained a title was Andrew Wiggins, drafted first in 2014 — however historical past means that the chances are towards Flagg ever successful a championship. The one No. 1 picks on this period with multiple title are Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson.
However a few elements level in Flagg’s favor greater than the typical No. 1 decide. He enters the NBA with a greater projection than most high prospects, which issues for postseason outcomes: Out of 15 No. 1 picks within the lottery period with a number of All-NBA appearances of their careers, seven (47%) have gained titles, with the likelihood for extra if Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Edwards ever lifts the trophy.
The Mavericks even have rather more expertise than rebuilding squads that usually decide first within the draft. Most No. 1 picks need assistance from different No. 1 picks to win titles: Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard all gained whereas enjoying with James, as an example, and David Robinson and Glenn Robinson gained subsequent to Duncan.
That is perhaps probably the most important title-worthy context for Flagg as his profession begins: He’ll quickly share the courtroom with Davis and Irving, two earlier No. 1 picks who’ve turned that draft slot into a hoop. — Kram
0: 7.7%
1: 76.9%
2: 7.7%
3: 7.7%
4 or extra: 0%
What number of groups will Flagg play for in his profession?
Dirk Nowitzki exhibits there may be precedent for a Mavericks star to stay in Dallas his total profession. The best participant in franchise historical past spent 21 seasons in Dallas — probably the most for any participant with a single workforce in NBA historical past. The Mavericks ought to be particularly motivated to retain Flagg for so long as attainable, given the fan base’s discontent following the commerce of Doncic, who gave the impression to be Nowitzki’s pure successor.
But predicting any participant within the trendy NBA to stay with one workforce over his full profession looks like a idiot’s errand. Amongst gamers who’ve debuted within the twenty first century, solely 4 of the highest 50 scorers have by no means modified groups: Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker and Nikola Jokic. It is nonetheless attainable that a few these one-franchise gamers will nonetheless transfer earlier than their careers finish. Current historical past overwhelmingly means that Flagg will transfer on in some unspecified time in the future. — Kram
1 (Dallas): 3.8%
2: 53.8%
3: 34.6%
4 or extra: 7.7%
1:11
Cooper Flagg reacts to being drafted at No. 1
Cooper Flagg speaks to Monica McNutt after he is drafted No. 1 within the 2025 NBA draft.
The place will Flagg land in 2025 NBA rank?
It is uncommon to see a rookie even crack the Prime 100, however Flagg enters the NBA able to making a broad sufficient affect on video games to earn a spot. The query is much less about whether or not he’ll warrant inclusion and extra about how optimistic our ESPN panel will in the end be about the place to rank him.
Personally, I are inclined to air on the conservative aspect whereas estimating rookie-season affect. Within the draft course of, projecting a prospect’s eventual profession peak is one factor, however the preliminary studying curve is a difficult variable and each participant acclimates in a different way. Flagg is totally different than most prospects — he isn’t solely used to being younger for his degree however proved capably he is prepared for high competitors at any age at Duke. Although I would not count on Dallas to burden him with plenty of creation duties, or for Flagg to be totally ready to deal with that instantly, his defensive instincts, passing and tenacity will all profit him as he adjusts on a workforce that is planning to be aggressive.
With out considering too arduous about it, I’d put Flagg within the 76-100 vary. Our panel appears extra optimistic at this stage. The very fact we’re even having this dialog already speaks to his high quality and shiny future. — Jeremy Woo
Prime 25: 0%
26-50: 15.4%
51-75: 53.8%
76-100: 30.8%