After a tumultuous 2024, Drake largely stabilized his standing all through 2025’s first half, along with his Billboard 200-topping PartyNextDoor teamup LP $ome $exy $ongs 4 U and its Billboard Hot 100 No. 2-peaking breakout hit “Nokia.” Now, he’s making an attempt to reclaim his top-dog standing along with his upcoming Iceman album — beginning with the advance singles “What Did I Miss?” and “Which One.”
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Whether or not Drake will be capable to climb again to his early-decade perch, nevertheless, is unclear from the early response to these two singles. “Miss” had a powerful No. 2 debut on the Sizzling 100 however has slid out of the highest 30 within the three weeks since, whereas “Which One” (that includes star U.Ok. rapper Central Cee) bows at No. 23 this week.
Are both of those two songs prone to final as a success? And the way crucial is it that Drake rating a Sizzling 100 No. 1 sooner or later on this album cycle? Billboard staffers talk about these questions and extra under.
1. Drake’s lead Iceman single “What Did I Miss?” debuted at No. 2 on the Sizzling 100 4 weeks in the past, and has since slid out of the highest 30. Has that efficiency been higher, worse, or about what you’d have anticipated for the tune?
Kyle Denis: It’s a bit worse than I anticipated, and I wasn’t anticipating an excessive amount of to start with. I get pleasure from “What Did I Miss?” I feel it’s a strong report, and it’s good to listen to Drake straight-up rapping along with his again considerably in opposition to the wall. However the tune lacks the magnetism {that a} lead single ought to have; the hook can also be on the weaker facet, and the music video isn’t a lot to put in writing dwelling about. I’m not shocked that informal listeners haven’t purchased into the tune.
Carl Lamarre: Nearly proper. The tune is a protected Drake report: catchy barbs laced along with his standard shoot-first vitality. For Drake, a chart slip like this raises an eyebrow, however it’s not panic-worthy. In any case, he delivered considered one of Q1’s hottest songs with “Nokia.” Folks like to circle Drake’s missteps — whether or not it’s Pusha or Kendrick — however tracks like “Nokia” and “Any individual Loves Me” show that when wanted, he can nonetheless swing for the fences.
Jason Lipshutz: About what I anticipated. “What Did I Miss?” is extra of a response than a bid for a summertime hit, with Drake tossing out wounded, provocative bars slightly than hooks that proceed the crossover momentum of his spring smash “Nokia.” A tune like “What Did I Miss?” is designed to set off a dash to your streaming service of selection on the evening it’s launched, not persist on hip-hop radio for weeks on finish — therefore, the explanation why the tune blasted into the runner-up spot on the Sizzling 100 upon its launch, and has since slid down the chart.
Michael Saponara: The debut feels about proper, however I believed it will have extra legs by means of the remainder of the summer time and maintain sturdy across the prime 10 to twenty. “What Did I Miss?” had the best intentions. I felt like Drake had a lot to get off his chest and this was a correct launch into the Iceman period.
Andrew Unterberger: Higher than I anticipated at first, worst after. A No. 2 debut was greater than acceptable for this tune, however falling as precipitously because it has within the weeks since — regardless of an official music video, a efficiency at Drake’s headlining look at Wi-fi Competition and his online grousing about debuting one spot in need of the aim — is sorta telling.
2. “Which One,” that includes Central Cee, debuts at No. 23 on the Sizzling 100 this week. Do you assume Drake ought to be involved a couple of debut outdoors of the highest 20, or is it comprehensible for this tune at this level in his album cycle?
Kyle Denis: For what it’s value, “Which One” is that this week’s highest new entry on the Sizzling 100. Nonetheless, it’s troublesome for me to wrap my head round a brand new Drake tune — notably one which’s this catchy and options one of many hottest new rappers of the 2020s — not simply debuting outdoors of the highest 20, but in addition behind a number of holdover hits from the earlier yr. “Which One” was by no means going to debut at No. 1, however a prime 10 debut, at the very least, ought to have been assured.
Carl Lamarre: Just a little of each. If my batting common regarded like Drake’s — a.okay.a the all-time Sizzling 100 hit chief — I wouldn’t be too confused about it. That stated, Crew Drake most likely misinterpret this report’s hit potential. And since expectations are larger than ever, something shy of 2018’s dominance (“God’s Plan,” “In My Emotions,” “Good For What”) looks like a miss. As a lot as I can scream about “Nokia” being each a chart and cultural banger, the actual fact stays: his final solo No. 1 was 2021’s “What’s Subsequent.”
Jason Lipshutz: Contemplating his record-setting monitor report as a Sizzling 100 fixture, Drake shouldn’t be involved with any chart debut, a lot much less that of a collaborative monitor that’s not a lead single to a brand new undertaking. “Which One” pairs Drake with Central Cee, at a second wherein the London rapper is continuous to make strides in North America… however the tune itself is simply too weak to make for any form of blockbuster team-up, and doesn’t cater to both of their strengths. “Which One” may be a missed alternative, however I don’t assume the tune speaks to any macro tendencies almost about Drake’s business viability.
Michael Saponara: This was the place Drake misplaced me a bit. With a lot using on Iceman and the momentum heading into the undertaking, I hoped he’d go along with one thing within the chamber that felt bulletproof or extra simple in terms of being a success that may reside within the Iceman zeitgeist. A debut outdoors the highest 20 looks like that message was despatched as effectively.
Andrew Unterberger: I imply… it’s not nice! I doubt anybody anticipated one other No. 2 debut, however I feel most Drake followers would’ve anticipated the tune to settle someplace into the decrease half of the highest 10. Then it regarded like they have been gonna need to accept the decrease half of the highest 20. Now it seems even that was optimistic. And it’s not just like the tune bought buried beneath an album bomb from a much-anticipated drop; this was the week’s highest-debuting tune. It’d be one factor if “Which One” was a tossed-off rant or stream-of-consciousness diary entry clearly not meant for mass enchantment, however this was clearly made with world pop intentions. (Although to be honest, it at the very least did perform a little higher on that entrance, bowing at No. 14 on the Global 200.)
3. Do you see both of those two songs sticking across the Sizzling 100 and within the tradition for the remainder of the summer time? Which one is extra prone to have that endurance?
Kyle Denis: I nonetheless count on “Which One” to construct into a large late summer time hit, particularly if radio latches onto it. By way of the Iceman rollout and Drake’s post-beef narrative, nevertheless, I feel “What Did I Miss” will finally show to be the extra vital tune of the 2.
Carl Lamarre: No. The bar is simply too rattling excessive. Drake doesn’t get to drop “strong” or “cool.” Actuality is, he has to drop anthems. If this rollout is supposed to be an OVO opus, he’ll must recalibrate. Neither of those information will get him there. Perhaps “Which One” sneaks into OVO Fest through a hearth video, however I wouldn’t guess on it.
Jason Lipshutz: “What Did I Miss?” at the very least captures Drake at a particular second in time — selecting up the items following a public spat with Kendrick Lamar, side-eyeing these he thought he might belief — and is compelling as each a historic doc and a uncommon showcase of his vulnerability. Neither tune will outline Drake’s musical output in the best way that “Nokia,” his most downright enjoyable hit in years, has already lodged secured its spot on the listing of his months-running smashes, however “What Did I Miss?” is extra memorable than “Which One,” for positive.
Michael Saponara: I don’t see a lot traction for both remaining chart-friendly, however “What Did I Miss?” feels as if it might have some extra juice tied to the themes of Iceman and the remainder of the rollout.
Andrew Unterberger: Appears to me just like the individuals have spoken about these two. Might be fallacious, however I think about Drake will regroup and transfer on from them fairly shortly.
4. Although No. 1 Sizzling 100 debuts have been practically computerized for Drake for many of the 2020s, the very best he’s accomplished this yr is No. 2 (for each “Nokia” and “What Did I Miss?”). Is it vital for him to finish the yr with at the very least one No. 1 tune, or is he effective peaking with a few No. 2s contemplating how low he appeared to have fallen final yr?
Kyle Denis: Contemplating this can be a rapper who has gloated about “having extra slaps [Hot 100 top 10 hits] than The Beatles” and celebrated tying Michael Jackson for essentially the most Sizzling 100 chart-toppers amongst male soloists, a No. 1 earlier than 2025 ends is completely vital. In an ideal world, the longevity of “Nokia” alone ought to have put all this dialog to mattress. However whenever you consciously align your model with business success, particularly No. 1 singles, you’re perpetually held to that customary.
Carl Lamarre: Let’s be actual: Drake actually referred to as out Alex Warren for blocking his No. 1 debut with “What Did I Miss.” He’s not within the sport for second place. Silver medals don’t imply a lot to Drizzy Drake Rogers. And whereas his 15-year run doesn’t get sufficient credit score, the vultures have been circling, ready for a slip. Drake’s story is constructed on dominance — on breaking Billboard. To accept something lower than No. 1 isn’t only a loss, it’s off-brand. He’s not right here to play within the Finals, the brother is right here to hoist trophies.
Jason Lipshutz: “Nokia” represents a much more important achievement than a random Drake tune debuting at No. 1 on the Sizzling 100 after which shortly fading from reminiscence. Following the Kendrick Lamar feud final yr, Drake scoring one other main pop smash within the close to future appeared wildly unlikely — however with “Nokia,” listeners sniffed out essentially the most joyful second on $ome $exy $ongs 4 U and turned it right into a prime 10 mainstay. Battle strains have been drawn throughout well-liked hip-hop final yr as Drake and Kendrick Lamar exchanged diss tracks, however informal rap followers would slightly replay thrilling singles than pledge timeless allegiance to at least one facet of a feud; regardless that it probably gained’t attain the highest of the Sizzling 100, “Nokia” proved that, no matter his “efficiency” in that feud, Drake can nonetheless produce a contemporary mega-smash.
Michael Saponara: Traditionally, a No. 1 hit could be large as it will break his tie with Michael Jackson and provides him essentially the most Sizzling 100 chart-toppers of any male solo artist, which might certifiably stamp his comeback post-beef and provides him one other notch on his Chrome Hearts belt with some {hardware} to associate with it.
Nevertheless, not all hits are the identical. Sure, the stats are nice, however a tune like “Nokia” had a months-long buzz and is a membership hit with extra cultural relevance and cachet than some tracks we see launch at No. 1, and shortly fall off the face of the earth with no affect. So regardless that it “solely” reached No. 2, I imagine that may outweigh the taking pictures star at No. 1 that’s nowhere to be discovered within the weeks to comply with.
Andrew Unterberger: “Nokia” was precisely the tune that Drake wanted this yr, and I feel it was completely effective that it solely peaked at No. 2 — hell, so did its non secular predecessor “Hotline Bling” a decade in the past. Drake loves No. 1s in fact, however he didn’t want one, at the very least not at that time. And he most likely nonetheless wouldn’t, if he hadn’t publicly referred to as out Alex Warren and promised that he’d be “taking that [No. 1 spot] quickly don’t fear one tune or one other. Rule adjustments and all.” Now he’s prone to pretty main embarrassment if he can’t put his cash the place his mouth is — and whereas it’s been traditionally inadvisable to guess in opposition to Drake on the charts, he’s shifting within the fallacious path thus far.
5. Plot out what your imaginative and prescient for the proper third single from Iceman would encompass.
Kyle Denis: I feel Drake has gotta get again with the women once more. It might be cool to see him lock again in with 40 for a “Take Care”-esque midtempo to hold us into the autumn. Ideally, he affords a extra mature reflection on the state of his romantic life and will get somebody like Mariah the Scientist on the hook to nod to a brand new class of R&B stars. In a timeline with a extra daring Drizzy, I’d like to see what he and PinkPantheress might prepare dinner up. I really feel like they might actually shock us!
Carl Lamarre: Drake x Travis. Time to run again “Sicko Mode” 2025 Version and shake the globe once more.
Jason Lipshutz: Extra “Nokia,” all of the “Nokia.” Simply journey the vibe of the genuinely euphoric hit that introduced you again onto pop radio! I’ll take “Motorola,” adopted by “Blackberry,” please and thanks, Drake.
Michael Saponara: Time stamp Drake. Conductor Williams beat. Go time.
Andrew Unterberger: One rapper, one producer, one hook, one topic and — most significantly — one beat. Drake provides us a centered pop tune and the sky continues to be the restrict.