After an extended month of continental competitors stretching from one finish of Switzerland to the opposite, Euro 2025 is about to conclude on Sunday in Basel, the place Spain will tackle England in a repeat of the 2023 World Cup remaining.
The paths these two groups have taken by the event in Switzerland are starkly totally different. Spain have been within the powerful aspect of the knockout bracket, however eased previous the hosts and eight-time winners Germany. England, in the meantime, have struggled, going behind to Sweden and Italy earlier than needing unimaginable comebacks with the assistance of their super-subs to grind out the late outcomes wanted to mount a protection of their trophy.
Who will emerge victorious on Sunday? How will the match unfold? ESPN requested the 2 writers who’ve adopted these groups most carefully all through Euro 2025: Tom Hamilton and Sam Marsden.
Why might England win?
There have been at the very least 3 times on this event the place England’s marketing campaign regarded doomed. They have been outplayed of their opening recreation in opposition to France (a 2-1 loss) however bounced again in opposition to Netherlands (4-0) and Wales (6-1). They have been dominated by Sweden, solely to haul it again within the remaining 11 minutes from 2-0 down and edge a chaotic penalty shootout to by some means get by. Then they have been one minute from elimination in opposition to Italy earlier than the super-subs saved the day once more. So they have luck on their aspect.
That is supervisor Sarina Wiegman’s fifth main event remaining in a row — it is an unbelievable report. And England additionally know what it takes to beat the champions, having prevailed 1-0 in February (admittedly in opposition to a Spain staff minus a couple of key gamers). That day was the genesis of “correct England” mentality, which has guided them by this event. It was a dogged, bodily and resilient efficiency as England soaked up the strain after which attacked with venom.
In brief, if they will drag this match into an arm-wrestle, they will win. — Hamilton
Why might Spain win?
Spain are the staff with the clearest id and essentially the most gifted gamers within the event. If their mixtures within the remaining third click on, it will likely be very exhausting for England to cease them. Midfielders Patri Guijarro and Aitana Bonmatí have been magnificent within the knockout rounds, and, whereas Alexia Putellas hasn’t been nearly as good, she was sensational within the group levels.
It isn’t simply these three, both. Spain even have the event’s high objective scorer in Esther González and attackers Clàudia Pina, Mariona Caldentey, Athenea del Castillo and Salma Paralluelo all able to contribute as nicely. If there may be hope for England, it’s that Switzerland and Germany each did a comparatively good job of shutting down Spain, who do not actually have a Plan B, in spells. The issue is each have been finally worn down by La Roja‘s relentless waves of assaults. — Marsden
Who deserves the trophy extra: Sarina Wiegman or Montse Tomé?
If the ultimate goes to type and is a illustration of play in the course of the event, then Spain and Tomé deserve it. If you happen to’re searching for the Hollywood ending to this ridiculous roller-coaster film, then Wiegman does. Total, for the sheer drama her staff has introduced us right here in Switzerland, and for the last-minute rewrites, gasps and groans, it must be Wiegman. — Hamilton
Tomé nonetheless has critics regardless of taking Spain to the ultimate. For some, she is going to all the time be related to the earlier regime as Jorge Vilda’s assistant earlier than taking his job. Jenni Hermoso, not noted of the squad, mentioned earlier than the event that if Spain do win the trophy it will likely be “regardless of Tomé, not due to her.” With all that in thoughts, it is exhausting to say which coach deserves it extra, however I actually assume Tomé will probably be below extra strain. If Spain fall quick, she is more likely to take the brunt of the blame for not getting this gifted squad over the road of their first Euros remaining. — Marsden
1:49
Ought to Kelly and Agyemang begin for England in Euro 2025 remaining?
The Futbol Girls’s crew focus on if Chloe Kelly and Michelle Agyemang ought to begin for England within the Euro 2025 remaining.
England participant to look at
When England want the match-saving or tournament-winning moments, Chloe Kelly steps ahead. She might but begin from the outset on Sunday relying on Lauren James‘ health. Kelly scored the winner within the Euro 2022 remaining, netted the profitable penalty within the 2023 Finalissima over Brazil and in opposition to Nigeria on the 2023 World Cup, and has helped save England twice at these Euros.
First her influence compelled the 2 objectives in opposition to Sweden, after which she scored the winner from the spot late on in opposition to Italy. No matter occurs on Sunday, Kelly may have some position within the narrative. — Hamilton
Spain participant to look at
All eyes will probably be on the standard candidates (the obvious being Bonmatí, the reigning Ballon d’Or), however that would as soon as once more play into Pina’s palms. She is in wealthy type. She scored the 2 objectives when Spain beat England within the UEFA Nations League in June and has netted two of her trademark golazos at these finals, coming in from the left and bending into the highest nook. “When she drives inside and units up like that, planting her left foot … we predict it is getting in,” Tomé mentioned after Pina’s Switzerland strike. — Marsden
Prediction?
England 1-0 Spain. England’s narrative right here has been wild. It is a flip of a coin between them shedding by a few objectives, or by some means battling by to a 1-0 win. They’re the “Jekyll and Hyde” Lionesses in the meanwhile. However on steadiness, there’s one thing about this staff and this ridiculous event they’ve floor their method by. I am glad to confess this could possibly be woefully misguided, however I am going for a 1-0 England win. — Hamilton
England 0-2 Spain. Spain have performed higher soccer than England all through the event and I anticipate that sample to proceed. It was not simple in opposition to Switzerland and Germany, with England one other step up from these sides, however I feel they may rise to the problem. I will go for a 2-0 Spain win, the second arriving late as England push for one more comeback. — Marsden
TACTICAL PREVIEW
by Yash Thakur
In what guarantees to be one other epic remaining between the 2 sides, here’s a take a look at 5 tactical areas that would determine the sport.
Spain’s midfield maestros
Spain keep a monopoly on the ball, retaining over 66% of possession in all their video games up to now. Their midfield is the gold customary and the Barcelona trio of Patri Guijarro, Aitana Bonmatí and Alexia Putellas are all match and firing. The three mix very well, accounting for 29% of Spain’s whole passes in the course of the event up to now at a completion charge of 86%. They’ve additionally created 48 of Spain’s 90 probabilities.
Guijarro screens the backline whereas additionally serving to transfer the ball ahead; Putellas and Bonmatí are extra concerned within the remaining phases and front-foot defending. This mix permits Spain to create probabilities, management possession and defend opposition assaults.
No participant at Euro 2025 has created extra probabilities than Putellas (18), and no participant has recorded extra progressive passes than Guijarro (60), whereas Bonmatí ranks fourth when it comes to carries into the field (9). These gamers are all within the high three in these metrics on a per 90-minute foundation as nicely (minimal of three video games performed).
Limiting their touches on the ball or marking them carefully, like Germany did with their 4-5-1 formation, could possibly be a method of lowering Spain’s effectiveness.
Spain’s urgent and counter-pressing
A key element of Tomé’s ways for Spain is the urgent and counter-pressing. The world champions station as many as six or seven gamers in shut proximity within the remaining third of the pitch, which permits them to problem for the ball whereas having a number of our bodies within the neighborhood to mop up possession.
Tomé’s 4-4-2 off-ball form carefully marks opposition gamers in the course of the buildup part, lowering their passing choices and forcing them into errors or dangerous passes. Spain attempt to deny them time and lower passing lanes, leading to low completion charge in the course of the buildup phases.
Certainly, 18.3% of the entire tried passes in opposition to Spain have been lengthy balls, third-highest share behind France (21%) and Sweden (18.5%). Nonetheless, the success charge on these passes is the bottom (37%).
Spain’s proactiveness ends in errors on the again and opponents have dedicated 13 errors resulting in pictures this summer season. This is not nice information for England, as they’ve already dedicated eight errors resulting in pictures on the event, essentially the most of any staff.
England’s crossing
Crossing has been one in every of England’s go-to strikes at Euro 2025. The defending champions have tried essentially the most crosses of any aspect up to now (152), and their 51 crosses in opposition to Italy within the semifinals was a single-game report since Euro 2013.
Left-back Alex Greenwood (32), winger Lauren Hemp (29) and winger Chloe Kelly (29) are all within the high six gamers when it comes to crosses on the event. Hemp has put in 28 of her 29 from open play, essentially the most of any participant, whereas Kelly has but to start out a recreation however has tried 20 in her final two impactful substitute appearances in opposition to Italy and Sweden.
England have created probabilities from the deliveries, although not in essentially the most environment friendly method. No aspect scored extra headed objectives than England on the event (3 — tied with Sweden), whereas their 17 headed pictures are essentially the most by any staff. However their shot era charge is suboptimal: The Lionesses have generated a shot each ninth cross they try, and have lacked a risk within the field most instances.
Michelle Agyemang‘s 96th-minute equalizer in opposition to Italy within the semifinals and each of England’s comeback objectives in opposition to Sweden within the quarterfinals stemmed from a nook. Solely Italy striker Cristiana Girelli (19) has gained extra aerial duels than England right-back Lucy Bronze (14) and ahead Alessia Russo (13).
With the aggressive positioning of Spanish full-backs of their 4-3-3 formation, there may be ample house on supply for the Lionesses in these extensive areas they usually might look to create alternatives from these conditions.
Wiegman’s in-game adjustments
Euro 2025 has seen Wiegman’s tactical tweaks tackle a brand new type throughout a recreation. A slightly inflexible determine in her earlier 4 main tournaments, the Dutch supervisor has tailored some in-game options whereas remaining constant together with her beginning XI, and referred to as on the likes of Agyemang and Kelly to save lots of issues from the bench late on.
Certainly, her midgame tweaks have seen England’s form go from a 4-2-3-1, to a 3-5-2, to a 4-2-4. These adjustments have allowed the Lionesses to assault in numbers, turning management into manufactured chaos, and Wiegman’s substitutions have mounted a few of the current points in her beginning XI, reminiscent of the dearth of risk within the field from crosses.
Of their semifinal in opposition to Italy, England had 5 attackers on the pitch after the eighty fifth minute and Agyemang pounced to seize the equalizer after chaos within the field. In opposition to Sweden, the change to a again three with Esme Morgan‘s substitution allowed them to have two strikers occupying the center-backs. That change additionally allowed Bronze, one in every of their greatest aerial threats, to assault the field, which resulted within the first objective of the comeback.
Some could say Wiegman has left it too late, and that they acquired fortunate, however well-timed adjustments are a part of the rationale why England have essentially the most objectives by way of substitutes on the event (5), with Agyemang main the pack (2). Her tactical astuteness has enhanced England’s risk when chasing video games by sacrificing some management, and this might show a differential issue within the remaining.
Spain’s attacking depth
La Roja have high quality throughout their squad, with a number of Ballon d’Or winners and a number of Champions League winners on the pitch always. Spain have scored essentially the most objectives whole (17), most objectives from inside and outdoors the field (14 and three, respectively) and most objectives from corners (4) on the event.
Their attacking gamers additionally supply selection, making it troublesome for the opposition to pick a defensive scheme. Esther González presents field consciousness, runs in behind and tenacity; Salma Paralluelo presents explosiveness and pace; whereas Cristina Martín-Prieto provides aerial potential. On the flanks, Athenea del Castillo brings the dribbling potential and direct working, whereas Clàudia Pina and Arsenal‘s Mariona Caldentey are nimble-footed operators in tight areas.
Consequently, Spain’s objective scoring and likelihood creation are unfold among the many squad. NWSL‘s main objective scorer González has essentially the most objectives (4), whereas Putellas tops the assists chart (4). Spain have 4 gamers with a number of objectives on the event, the joint most by any aspect (with England.)
England could use super-subs, however Real Madrid‘s Del Castillo has additionally been one on the event, registering a objective and an help off the bench in every knockout recreation up to now. Her savvy mixture play on the fringe of the field has enabled Spain to disrupt opposition’s settled blocks. And if nothing works, Pina has the flexibility to tear a thunderbolt shot from the sting of the field.
How England’s backline offers with these different attacking threats will definitely be necessary.