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Eric Karabell
Every week in MLB is its personal story — stuffed with surprises, each optimistic and unfavorable — and fantasy managers should resolve what to imagine and what to not imagine shifting ahead. Maybe we will help. If any of those ideas come true… do not be shocked!
Atlanta Braves OF Jurickson Profar delivered surprisingly great numbers throughout the 2024 season, hitting .280/.380/.459 for the San Diego Padres over 158 video games, with 24 HR, 85 RBI, 10 SB and 94 runs. Maybe Profar, energetic this week after serving an 80-game suspension for violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drug coverage, achieved these improbable numbers for doubtful causes, however no one can take away the very fact he was the No. 15 hitter in ESPN factors codecs. It was a legitimately invaluable fantasy season for positive.
Do not be shocked… if Profar is a top-25 hitter the remainder of the season
Profar homered Wednesday in his first sport again in Atlanta’s lineup, his first time enjoying because the first week of the season. The Braves, decimated by accidents this season, have a protracted technique to go to get into playoff rivalry, however they will do it with a high-powered offense. Profar performs a key position there, because the Braves have lacked left area manufacturing and a productive No. 2 hitter. Profar batted fifth Wednesday, however maybe the switch-hitter strikes as much as the No. 2 spot, nestled between star OF Ronald Acuna Jr. and 1B Matt Olson, DH Marcell Ozuna and 3B Austin Riley. It’s a good spot to be in.
Fantasy managers may suppose they know every little thing, however no one is aware of for positive what have an effect on Profar taking an unlawful substance performed in his gorgeous 2024 season. Presuming he can not replicate his fee of efficiency over the ultimate three months of 2025 is short-sighted. We do not know what actually occurred or when. We do know Profar was a terrific fantasy choice, and he’s rostered in solely 31.8% of ESPN commonplace leagues, although up 9.4% over the previous seven days. Good! He ought to be one of many most added hitters!
Allow us to be much more optimistic/optimistic right here. Profar does not want to provide an .839 OPS and rating a ton of runs like final season to matter in fantasy shifting ahead, nevertheless it appears doubtless he does one thing statistically that can intrigue us. Wednesday night time was an excellent begin. Make investments and it’s possible you’ll be shocked. Once more.
Do not be shocked… if Tampa Bay Rays OF Chandler Simpson leads MLB in stolen bases
Simpson, again from a month-long stint in Triple-A to work on his outfield protection, continues to appear to be the quickest man in baseball nowadays, and there’s seemingly no stopping him as he accumulates stolen bases at a staggering fee. Simpson, who swiped 104 bases in 110 minor-league video games (504 PA) in 2024, stole his twenty third base of his abbreviated big-league season Wednesday in solely his forty fourth sport (164 PA). Simpson will not be overwhelmed on the plate. He’s hitting .296 and making contact. That is who he’s, and it actually issues in fantasy baseball.
For comparability, Rays SS/2B/3B/OF Jose Caballero leads baseball with 30 stolen bases, achieved over 69 video games (225 PA). The versatile Caballero, with a below-average .651 OPS, is hardly any safer than Simpson for enjoying time, and the Rays might search a daily improve. Regardless, whereas Caballero steals bases at the next fee than the opposite league leaders (Pittsburgh Pirates SS/OF Oneil Cruz, Chicago Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kansas City Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.), he is not a productive participant. Simpson, to date, is extra productive, particularly currently (.801 OPS since returning to the majors).
Whereas stolen bases are a much bigger deal in roto/classes leagues than ESPN commonplace factors codecs, it’s mildly fascinating that we might not see any gamers attain 50 steals in 2025. Solely Caballero is on tempo to achieve the mark, although Simpson could be there as effectively had he performed extra. MLB made noteworthy changes in recent times to ask extra stolen base curiosity, and it appeared to work, as Acuna, Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz and Los Angeles Dodgers SP/DH/unicorn Shohei Ohtani had been amongst six gamers to steal greater than 50 bases over the previous two seasons.
This may make fantasy managers a bit unhappy, however the league’s general stolen base fee is down a bit from the 2024 season, from 0.74 steals per sport to 0.72. (Ohtani, on tempo for 23 steals after swiping 59 luggage final 12 months, is a notable faller). There nonetheless are gamers stealing bases on the market, and the excellent news is gamers are doing it extra effectively than ever. The speed of profitable steals is up from 76% to 79%! If Simpson simply will get to play, likelihood is he’ll run greater than anybody else and maybe lead the game, even with far much less enjoying time. It could be fairly a narrative.
Do not be shocked… if Chicago Cubs SP Matthew Boyd is a top-20 hurler
Boyd, 34, earned his eighth win on Tuesday, allowing two runs over seven innings towards the Cleveland Guardians. Fantasy managers have made Boyd one of many most added pitchers not too long ago, however he stays out there in additional than 30% of normal leagues. How may this be? Boyd is the No. 9 beginning pitcher on the 30-day Player Rater and No. 18 for the season. In factors codecs, he’s nineteenth for the season and twelfth over the previous 30 days, proper with Pirates ace RHP Paul Skenes.
Maybe few believed Boyd would stick in Chicago’s rotation after he delivered a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over eight begins for final season’s Guardians, many of the outings of the four- or five-inning selection. The Cubs gave Boyd a two-year, incentive-laden contract with an choice 12 months for a 3rd. He has been one among baseball’s — and fantasy’s — prime bargains, however some are cautious as a result of Boyd is already at 98 2/3 innings, his most since 2019.
This can be a totally different Boyd from his Detroit Tigers days. We recall when Boyd struck out 238 hitters in 2019 however with solely 9 wins and a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Boyd’s subsequent win matches his profession excessive. He will not strike out 200 hitters, however a 22.1% fee is strong, rating thirty fourth amongst 71 certified MLB starters. His 5.6% stroll fee is seventeenth. Boyd is throwing his fastball at a career-high velocity (93.2 mph), inducing his greatest swing share (51.9%). There isn’t a dialogue of an innings restrict. This all seems to be reputable.
Do not be shocked… if Los Angeles Angels SP Yusei Kikuchi makes latest ERA/WHIP historical past
Kikuchi took an annoying no-decision in Atlanta on Wednesday. He left within the sixth inning up 2-0, with two runners on base. Another person allow them to rating. Myriad Braves went on to attain. The Angels misplaced. Kikuchi’s ERA rose a bit to 2.81, his WHIP remained at 1.37. As a Kikuchi investor in a roto/classes format, I benefit from the strong ERA and the strikeouts. Kikuchi may attain 200 whiffs once more! The WHIP, nonetheless, and lack of wins are an issue. Kikuchi is not the lone motive my workforce (9 energetic pitchers) is among the many leaders in ERA and close to the underside in WHIP (and wins), however he performs a job!
It seems that what Kikuchi is doing is kind of uncommon. Chicago White Sox LHP Wilson Alvarez is the lone certified pitcher because the 1971 season to complete with an ERA on the nice aspect of three.00 and a WHIP on the fallacious aspect of 1.35. Alvarez walked a league-leading 122 hitters in his noteworthy (and fairly lucky) 1993 season, successful 15 video games with a 2.95 ERA (4.24 FIP), nevertheless it got here with a harmful 1.39 WHIP. I am sufficiently old that I most likely rostered Alvarez in some league that 12 months and could not determine why I did not have one of the best pitching workers. Go determine.
Kikuchi is not fairly the identical as Alvarez, as he misses extra bats and his inefficiency causes him to fail to go deep into video games, thus solely three wins in 18 begins. Kikuchi is the No. 57 beginning pitcher in roto/classes codecs, which is not nice, however he’s the No. 28 starter in ESPN commonplace factors codecs. Whoa! Huge distinction! After all, the league through which I roster Kikuchi will not be a factors league. Nonetheless, I’m intrigued. I wager Kikuchi’s ERA rises some (his FIP is 3.79), however his WHIP ought to fall a bit (it was 1.20 final season). What an odd, however nonetheless related, mixture!