By Omkar Godbole (All occasions ET except indicated in any other case)
Whereas bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) costs have recouped a good portion of final week’s losses, hinting at a “purchase the dip” resurgence, the new release ETF flows paint a special image.
On Monday, the 9 spot ether ETFs recorded complete web outflows of $465 million — the biggest on document — following Friday’s $152 million drawdown, based on SoSoValue. Bitcoin ETFs additionally noticed substantial outflows, bleeding $333 million after Friday’s $812 million, suggesting that institutional capital isn’t as sanguine because the spot market.
Meantime, long-term bullishness has evaporated from BTC choices as issues of renewed U.S. inflation and a labor-market slowdown weigh on traders’ danger urge for food.
On the flip aspect, some analysts nonetheless maintain a largely constructive market outlook whereas anticipating Fed interest-rate cuts.
“Regardless of the short-term volatility, structural information nonetheless suggests the U.S. is present process a development slowdown, not a full recession,” Chloe Zheng, a analysis analyst at HTX, informed CoinDesk. “Family debt stays low relative to earnings, credit score stress is contained, and enterprise lending development continues. This mixture of softening labor information and easing inflation expectations traditionally precedes financial easing — inserting danger belongings like BTC in a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive window.”
Knowledge from the CME’s FedWatch instrument reveals that merchants have priced in three charge cuts by the January 2026 assembly, which means the Fed is predicted to decrease borrowing prices in three out of the following 4 conferences.
In accordance with Paul Howard, a senior director at crypto market-making agency Wincent, new crypto market highs hinge on Fed charge cuts.
“The following large piece of macro information will seemingly include U.S. charge modifications, probably as early as September,” Howare mentioned. “If that does occur, then we will anticipate costs to catapult by way of present ATH as low cost cash seems to be for yield. My sense is BTC and the foremost alts would then see robust outperformance in This fall.”
Talking of the broader market, on-chain stablecoin quantity hit a document excessive of over $1.5 trillion in July, according to analytics agency Sentora. Uniswap v4, which debuted on the finish of January, has surpassed $100 million in buying and selling quantity, based on information tracked by 21Shares.
In conventional markets, U.S. inventory futures traded flat to constructive, indicating a uninteresting open following Monday’s 1.3% acquire. The greenback index traded barely larger close to 99.00, whereas gold dropped to $3,360 per ounce, because the freight market cratered, sending a warning to the economic system. Keep alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Aug. 5, 1:30 p.m.: Stellar Improvement Basis (SDF) will host an AMA session on Reddit. CEO Denelle Dixon, Chief Advertising Officer Jason Karsh and Chief Progress Officer José Fernández da Ponte, will reply questions.
- Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle will host a webinar, “The GENIUS Act Period Begins,” that includes Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The session will focus on the primary U.S. federal fee stablecoin framework and its affect on crypto innovation and regulation.
- Aug. 15: Document date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Buyer Entitlement, Class 6 Basic Unsecured and Comfort Claims who meet pre-distribution necessities.
- Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
- Macro
- Aug. 5, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Provide Administration (ISM) releases July U.S. providers sector information.
- Providers PMI Est. Est. 51.5 vs. Prev. 50.8
- Aug. 5, 2 p.m.: Uruguay’s Nationwide Institute of Statistics releases July inflation information.
- Annual Inflation Charge Prev. 4.59%
- Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. tariff of fifty% kicks in on most Brazilian imports.
- Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Prepare dinner will ship a speech titled “U.S. and World Economic system”. Livestream link.
- Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in President Trump’s July 31 executive order turn out to be efficient for a broad vary of buying and selling companions that didn’t safe offers by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs vary from 15% to 41%, relying on the nation.
- Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s Nationwide Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July shopper value inflation information.
- Core Inflation Charge MoM Prev. 0.39%
- Core Inflation Charge YoY Prev. 4.24%
- Inflation Charge MoM Prev. 0.28%
- Inflation Charge YoY Prev. 4.32%
- Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico’s central financial institution, Banco de México, proclaims its financial coverage resolution.
- In a single day Interbank Goal Charge Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
- Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler’s resignation turns into efficient, creating an early emptiness on the Board of Governors that enables President Trump to appoint a successor.
- Aug. 5, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Provide Administration (ISM) releases July U.S. providers sector information.
- Earnings (Estimates primarily based on FactSet information)
- Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
- Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
- Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
- Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
- Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
- Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
- Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
- Aug. 11: Exodus Motion (EXOD), post-market
- Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
- Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
- Aug. 14 (TBC): Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market
- Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market
- Aug. 18: Bitdeer Applied sciences Group (BTDR), pre-market
- Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
Token Occasions
- Governance votes & calls
- Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are selecting between ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
- Balancer DAO is voting on creating “Balancer Business,” a for-profit subsidiary of Balancer OpCo Ltd. This new authorized entity would formalize protocol price administration and on-chain operations, changing the present DAO multisig mannequin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for 2 extra years beginning September. The proposal contains $6 million in funding and 15 million ARB for incentives for Entropy to deal with treasury administration, incentive design, information infrastructure, and ecosystem development. Voting ends Aug. 7.
- BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards, and launching month-to-month buybacks utilizing 20% of protocol income. Voting ends Aug. 10
- Aug. 5, 1:30 p.m.: Stellar Improvement Basis’s CEO, CMO, and Head of Technique & Partnerships to take part in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on Reddit.
- Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call.
- Unlocks
- Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating provide value $12.40 million.
- Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating provide value $48.07 million.
- Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating provide value $37.45 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating provide value $14.95 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating provide value $16.42 million.
- Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating provide value $36.35 million.
- Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating provide value $91.6 million.
- Token Launches
- Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to be listed on Kraken.
- Aug. 5: USDC, tron (TRX), ondo (ONDO), chainlink (LINK), cardano (ADA), and polkadot (DOT) to be listed on Arkham Trade.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (previously often known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique occasion held in Washington on Sept. 10 that enables normal counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to fulfill with public officers chargeable for crypto laws and regulatory oversight. House is proscribed. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration by way of Aug. 31.
- Day 2 of three: The Science of Blockchain Conference 2025 (Berkeley, California)
- Aug. 6-7: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
- Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
- Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
- Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
- Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh Metropolis, Vietnam)
- Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
- Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
- Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
- Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
- Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)
- Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
- Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Gap, Wyoming)
- Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
- Aug. 25-25: WebX 2025 (Tokyo)
Token Discuss
By Shaurya Malwa
- Hyperliquid closed its finest ever month, hitting $320 billion in buying and selling quantity in July — a 47% enhance pushed by exercise in ether and different altcoins .
- The DEX additionally broke previous $15 billion in complete open curiosity for the primary time, with ETH open curiosity practically doubling month-on-month.
- Hyperliquid constantly generated over $4 million in day by day charges within the interval, with no important gradual days, reflecting document dealer engagement.
- With $597 million in TVL, the change now instructions practically 12% of Binance’s derivatives market share, bolstered by whale exercise and high-leverage trades.
- The platform’s HYPE token slid to $38.54 after practically touching $50 to mark the top of its sustained rally.
- HYPE open curiosity dropped to a one-month low at $1.46 billion, with 70% of merchants lengthy, growing probabilities of a coordinated liquidation flush.
- Value discovery has shifted to exterior exchanges, damping the reflexive momentum that powered HYPE’s early positive factors.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC’s futures open curiosity dropped over 1% in distinction to the elevated participation in futures tied to different main tokens, together with ether and XRP.
- Funding charges are hovering at an annualized 5%-10% for many main cash, indicating a bullish positioning available in the market.
- On Deribit, long-term BTC calls now commerce at par with places, signaling a bullish-to-neutral shift in sentiment. Block flows over Paradigm featured calendar spreads in bitcoin, brief straddles in Aug. 8 expiry ETH choices.
Market Actions
- BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $114,615.76 (24hrs: 0.18%)
- ETH is down 0.87% at $3,661.62 (24hrs: 2.9%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% at 3,839 (24hrs: +1.95%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Charge is down 6 bps at 2.857%
- BTC funding charge is at 0.0189% (20.69% annualized) on KuCoin
- DXY is up 0.18% at 98.97
- Gold futures are down 0.39% at $3,413.10
- Silver futures are up 0.13% at $37.38
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.64% at 40,549.54
- Grasp Seng closed up 0.68% at 24,902.53
- FTSE is up 0.32% at 9,157.57
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.24% at 5,254.78
- DJIA closed on Monday up 1.34% at 44,173.64
- S&P 500 closed up 1.47% at 6,329.94
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.95% at 21,053.58
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.88% at 27,020.43
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.72% at 2,572.27
- U.S. 10-12 months Treasury charge is up 1.6 bps at 4.214%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,366.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 23,349.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Common Index are up 0.11% at 44,351.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 61.6% (0.27%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03192 (-1.24%)
- Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 926 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $56.83
- Complete Charges: 3.33 BTC / $382,733
- CME Futures Open Curiosity: 136,145 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 34 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 9.61%
Technical Evaluation
- The XRP/ETH ratio has carved out a head-and-shoulders sample on the day by day chart.
- A break beneath the horizontal assist line would affirm a bearish development reversal, signaling ether outperformance relative to XRP.
Crypto Equities
- Technique (MSTR): closed on Monday at $389.24 (+6.17%), -0.42% at $387.59 pre-market
- Coinbase World (COIN): closed at $318.17 (+1.11%), unchanged pre-market.
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $164.82 (-1.95%), -1.65% at $162.18.
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.89 (+7.48%), +5.23% at $30.40.
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.04 (+3.48%), -0.19% at $16.01
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.42 (+3.54%), unchanged.
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.65 (+7.91%), +0.81% at $13.76.
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.62 (+1.72%), +0.19% at $10.64.
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.83 (+6.02%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.37 (+2.64%), unchanged.
- Exodus Motion (EXOD): closed at $29.57 (+4.19%), unchanged.
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.14 (+11.67%), +2.61% at $19.64.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Day by day web flows: -$323.5 million
- Cumulative web flows: $53.83 billion
- Complete BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Day by day web flows: -$465.1 million
- Cumulative web flows: $9.04 billion
- Complete ETH holdings ~5.69 million
Supply: Farside Investors
In a single day Flows
Chart of the Day
- The U.S.-listed ether ETFs registered a document outflow of $465 million on Monday.
- The dearth of participation through ETFs raises a query mark on the sustainability of ether’s value restoration since Sunday.
Whereas You Had been Sleeping
- Base Network Suffers 1st Downtime Since 2023, Halts Operations for 29 Minutes (CoinDesk): The technical fault was recognized and resolved inside minutes of investigation. The outage is notable given Base’s rising significance within the Ethereum layer-2 ecosystem.
- Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises (CoinDesk): Bitcoin choices market indicators present long-term sentiment has turned from bullish to impartial as analysts warn that U.S. inflation information might complicate potential charge cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Trump’s BLS Firing Tests Wall Street’s Reliance on Government Data (The Wall Road Journal): Some traders are questioning the reliability of U.S. inflation and jobs information after Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, elevating long-term issues in regards to the transparency and credibility of financial reporting.
- A Year Ago Today, Bitcoin Hit $49K on Yen Carry Trade Unwind, Now It’s Up 130% (CoinDesk): Over the previous yr, bitcoin rebounded alongside equities and gold regardless of rising bond yields, whereas long-term holders doubled their share of provide, signaling stronger conviction by way of heightened market volatility.
- Brazil’s Supreme Court Places Bolsonaro Under House Arrest (The New York Occasions): The choose mentioned Bolsonaro confirmed “contempt for judicial choices” by utilizing allies’ social media accounts to succeed in supporters, and ordered police to grab his telephone and prohibit visits to his dwelling.
- Gold Hovers Near Two-Week High as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Raises Rate-Cut Bets (Reuters): An OANDA analyst mentioned gold’s latest power displays interest-rate lower expectations, however additional upside could also be restricted and not using a stronger catalyst to beat technical resistance close to $3,450.