The Indiana Pacers walloped the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, organising a Sport 7 for all of the marbles on Sunday. The sport will probably be in OKC, the place the Thunder are 10-2 this postseason and are a 7.5-point favourite to win the deciding sport.
By extension, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stays the heavy Finals MVP favourite on the books. My rankings replicate the identical as a result of I imagine the Thunder will win this sport. But when Indiana punctuates what has been the wildest postseason I can bear in mind with one final upset, will probably be a really attention-grabbing name between their two Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton and probably even T.J. McConnell.
Earlier than we get into my Finals MVP rankings as I see them by means of six video games on this sequence, a few notes to remember.
- Just one time in historical past has a participant from the shedding group gained Finals MVP: Jerry West in 1969, when the Lakers misplaced to the Celtics in seven video games regardless of West’s 38 factors, seven assists and 4 rebounds per sport. Which is to say, barring one thing taking place that has solely occurred as soon as within the final 55 NBA Finals (which may’t be dominated out, I suppose, given the statistically absurd nature of those playoffs generally and specifically the Pacers’ run), a participant from the profitable group goes to win Finals MVP.
- Not solely has the Finals MVP come from the profitable group all however one time, but it surely’s additionally often the main scorer in that exact sequence that claims the {hardware}. Solely 12 occasions has the Finals MVP been awarded to a participant who didn’t lead his group in scoring in that sequence.
With all this stated, let’s get to the Finals MVP rankings heading into Sport 7 on Sunday.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Present odds (by way of Caesars): -250
SGA stays the favourite as a result of the Thunder are nonetheless anticipated to win the sequence. The query is whether or not every other Thunder participant would have an opportunity to sneak in and steal Finals MVP with a large Sport 7. I would not wager on that.
Sure, Jalen Williams has been largely sensational. We’ll get to him in a minute. However in the long run, SGA is averaging north of 30 PPG on this sequence and can probably should be not less than fairly good in Sport 7 for the Thunder to win. His numbers are nearly actually going to be too robust in the long run if OKC wins.
2. Pascal Siakam
Present odds: +285
Siakam is Indiana’s chief within the clubhouse. For starters, he is the Pacers’ main scorer on this sequence at a tick south of 20 PPG (see the desk above for the way a lot that issues). Siakam hasn’t had any large scoring video games, however he has been by far Indiana’s most constant supply of offense.
And he is not simply scoring. He is including 8.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.7 steals per sport. Siakam was very good in Sport 4 with 20 factors, eight rebounds, 5 steals and 5 assists, and he is additionally attending to the free-throw line a shade beneath seven occasions a sport.
If Indiana wins, Finals MVP is completely up for grabs. However proper now, Siakam has the sting.
3. Tyrese Haliburton
Present odds: +1200
The books have Haliburton at longer odds than Jalen Williams, however I’ve received that flipped. If the Thunder win, it’ll take one thing extraordinary for Williams to overhaul SGA. But when the Pacers win, Haliburton is inside affordable vary of overtaking Siakam.
For starters, he owns the signature second of this sequence along with his game-winner in Sport 1. Second, he has a plus-21 level differential for the sequence. That speaks to his influence, whilst he has had, by conventional requirements, an up-and-down sequence, along with his 0-for-6 displaying in Sport 5 being the low level.
Nonetheless, whilst his scoring has fluctuated, Haliburton’s influence has been evident. Keep in mind, he’s now one among two gamers in historical past to common not less than seven assists, seven rebounds and three made 3-pointers over the primary three video games of an NBA Finals. The opposite? Stephen Curry in 2017. Not dangerous firm.
He is nonetheless behind Siakam proper now, however I’d go as far as to say Haliburton having an enormous Sport 7 is the surest method for Indiana to tug the upset. Sure, the Pacers are a sum-of-their-parts operation outlined extra by steadiness than particular person dominance, however Haliburton is constructed for the massive stage like few gamers. Even in his injured state, it isn’t laborious to think about him happening one among his theatrical 3-point binges to hold the Pacers to victory. If he does, will probably be the very last thing on voters’ minds, and it might nicely push him excessive.
4. Jalen Williams
Present odds: +1400
Williams has been largely excellent, however he hasn’t been terribly environment friendly with 45/26 taking pictures splits and he was a minus-40 in OKC’s Sport 6 loss. Given his three straight 25-point video games culminating along with his 40 piece in Sport 5, if he have been to return out and have a fully dominant Sport 7 whereas SGA lays an egg, and if OKC have been in a position to win beneath these circumstances, it is possible that Williams might overtake SGA for Finals MVP.
However once more, it is simply laborious to see the Thunder profitable if SGA would not have not less than an excellent sport, significantly given their taking pictures struggles as a group. And an excellent sport from SGA and an OKC win goes to be greater than for an SGA coronation. Williams wants a specific state of affairs to play out. It isn’t an unattainable one. It is simply not going.
5. T.J. McConnell
Present odds: +7500
McConnell is a brilliant lengthy shot right here at 130-1, however his folk-hero standing warrants inclusion on this race. He and the Pacers are a match made in underdog heaven, and he has been out of his thoughts on this sequence — changing into the primary bench participant because the 1977 merger to log not less than 10 factors and 5 assists in three Finals video games, and the primary bench participant ever to do that:
McConnell nonetheless has one sport left so as to add to those numbers, and if he goes completely loopy in Sport 7, which is a legit risk, and is the Pacers are certainly in a position to pull the upset regardless of so-so/down video games from Siakam and Haliburton, McConnell simply could be a romantic sufficient story to swoop in and swoon sufficient voters to steal this factor.
That is one other “do not wager on it” scenario, or not less than do not wager quite a bit on it, however ask your self this: Have the Pacers, and McConnell particularly, not firmly established an entire lack of regard for lengthy odds? This could be value a flyer.
2025 NBA Finals MVP odds
(Odds by way of Caesars as of June 21)