The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will sq. off for one final time on Sunday in Recreation 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Their thrilling sequence has far exceeded expectations, and simply seven complete factors separate the 2 groups by means of the primary six video games.
That is the primary time the Finals have gone the space since 2016, when the Cleveland Cavaliers accomplished their historic 3-1 comeback to defeat the 73-win Golden State Warriors. The Thunder gained 68 video games this season, which is essentially the most wins by any crew since that Warriors group. Will they meet the identical destiny?
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Forward of what needs to be a captivating winner-take-all affair, this is a have a look at some NBA Finals Recreation 7 tendencies, and what they could inform us about Sunday.
Anticipate a low-scoring affair …
The Thunder and Pacers have been two of the perfect offensive groups within the league this season, and have been racking up factors this sequence. Each groups have crossed the 100-point threshold in 5 of the six video games, and the one time a crew failed to achieve that mark was the Thunder in Recreation 6, after they put up 91 factors.
Historical past says that the development won’t proceed. No crew has reached 100 factors in a Finals Recreation 7 since 1988, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Detroit Pistons, 108-105. On the final 5 events that the Finals went the space, essentially the most factors any crew has scored is 95 by the Miami Heat in 2013.
Within the 19 earlier Finals Recreation 7s, each groups have scored 100 factors six occasions, however solely 4 occasions in regulation. And of these six earlier situations, 4 of them got here within the Nineteen Fifties or Sixties, when the league’s tempo was uncontrolled.
“I am not stating something that is not apparent. Our protection has been extra constant in these playoffs, particularly than our offense has,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault stated on Saturday.
“I feel typically, offense is more durable within the playoffs for everyone. The identical is true for Indiana on this sequence. Their offense will not be the place it was within the common season and even earlier within the playoffs. I feel it is simply more durable to attain while you play a crew over and time and again.”
… and a detailed one
This sequence has been extraordinarily aggressive from Recreation 1, when Tyrese Haliburton shocked the Thunder along with his game-winning jumper within the closing second. Three of the primary six video games have reached crunch time, which is outlined because the margin being inside 5 factors with 5 or fewer minutes remaining.
There is a good probability we’ll have one other shut one on Sunday. The typical margin of victory in Recreation 7 of the Finals is simply 6.9 factors, which is the smallest of all Finals video games. There hasn’t been a Finals Recreation 7 determined by double digits since 1978, when the Washington Bullets beat the Seattle SuperSonics by 16.
Of the 19 earlier Finals Recreation 7s, extra have been determined by 5 or fewer factors (9) than have been determined by double digits (5).
A slim recreation may very well be a bonus for the Pacers, who’ve pulled off some historic comebacks throughout this unimaginable run and have been extraordinarily calm below stress. They’re a outstanding 9-2 in clutch video games this postseason. Over the past decade, solely the 2020 Miami Warmth have had extra clutch wins (11) in a single playoff run.
“I feel as a bunch we have simply been very resilient all through the playoffs,” Tyrese Haliburton stated on Saturday. “We’re a bunch of men that get alongside very well and are attempting to do one thing particular. I feel the expectations for this group from an exterior viewpoint coming into the 12 months weren’t very excessive. They weren’t very excessive coming into the playoffs. They weren’t very excessive going into the second spherical of the playoffs. They weren’t very excessive going into the third spherical. They weren’t very excessive now.
“I feel we simply have carried out an amazing job of simply staying collectively. There’s not a bunch of men I might relatively go to battle with. I am actually excited to compete with these guys in a Recreation 7, and it’ll be quite a lot of enjoyable.”
Homecourt can be a significant component
The house crew has gained 4 of the primary six video games on this sequence, and it simply may have been all six. Within the two video games the place the highway crew has emerged victorious — Indiana in Recreation 1 and Oklahoma Metropolis in Recreation 4 — it took main comeback efforts.
Historical past says that the Thunder have a giant benefit by being at residence, and certainly they’re 7.5-point favorites, which is the fourth-largest Recreation 7 unfold, in any spherical, since 2014.
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Whereas the latest Finals Recreation 7 went the highway crew’s method when the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in Oakland, guests have traditionally had little success successful such contests. The Cavs have been the primary highway crew to win a Finals Recreation 7 for the reason that Bullets did so in 1978, and of the earlier 19 such video games, solely 4 have been gained by the highway crew:
- 1969: Boston Celtics 108, Los Angeles Lakers 106
- 1974: Boston Celtics 102, Milwaukee Bucks 87
- 1978: Washington Bullets 105, Seattle SuperSonics 99
- 2016: Cleveland Cavaliers 93, Golden State Warriors 89
Thus far, it is price noting the Thunder have been borderline unbeatable at residence this season. They went 35-6 on the Paycom Middle within the common season and are 10-2 there within the playoffs. And people two postseason defeats — Recreation 1 of the second spherical in opposition to the Denver Nuggets and Recreation 1 of the Finals — have been on last-second game-winners after blowing large leads.
Of their 12 residence playoff video games, the Thunder have posted 9 double-digit wins, together with 4 by 30-plus factors. Their web score at residence within the postseason is an astounding plus-20.7.
“The gang is superb,” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stated on Saturday. “You are in the end in your full consolation zone. The circulate to the day does not change. You are in your personal mattress. You’ve shootaround at your constructing. You eat your pregame meal out of your chef or your whoever. It’s totally snug, the entire circulate to the day, after which the group is behind you. They provide you power, whether or not you are up or down or no matter is happening within the night time. It is a bonus. It is enjoyable, for positive.”