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Zach Kram
Though the NBA’s 2025-26 Japanese Convention race seems to be vast open attributable to a rash of star accidents, the West image takes on a distinct tone. There, a mass of hopeful contenders should chase down the champion Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, who received the West by a file 16 video games final season and have a sustainable roster constructed to repeat.
However which rivals have the very best probability to catch Oklahoma Metropolis? Which veteran-laden groups hope to remain sufficiently spry for an additional deep playoff run? And which younger groups would possibly rise quickly up the standings?
To take a broad overview and analyze the preliminary state of the 2025-26 Western Convention discipline, we have sorted all 15 groups into 5 tiers. Tomorrow, we’ll undergo an analogous train with the East, however for now, let’s keep out West, beginning with the plain favourite with an incredible probability at making historical past.
Tier 1: The clear-cut favourite
Exterior of rostering 2024 first-round decide Nikola Topic, the Thunder have not added any new gamers by way of commerce or free company — however why would they should? The defending champs already had the league’s deepest rotation. And they’re going to presumably solely get higher in 2025-26, as 31-year-old Alex Caruso and 30-year-old Kenrich Williams are the one gamers older than 27, and Chet Holmgren performed simply 32 video games final season attributable to harm.
Higher than profitable the title after a 68-win common season and the very best level differential in NBA historical past? Sure, it is not solely potential however reasonable. As they try and turn into the primary back-to-back champions for the reason that Durant-era Warriors, which might snap a record-long streak with out a repeat winner, the Thunder are in a category of their very own.
Tier 2: Able to deny a repeat champ
1:09
Shams: The objective for KD and Rockets is for him to retire in Houston
Shams Charania says that each Kevin Durant and the Rockets need the star to complete his profession in Houston.
The Rockets had been one thing of a paper tiger in 2024-25: They earned the No. 2 seed within the West with a tireless regular-season effort, however they did not have the star energy essential to do injury within the postseason, resulting in a first-round exit in opposition to the Golden State Warriors. However after buying and selling for Kevin Durant and signing Dorian Finney-Smith, with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard set to tackle larger roles, the Rockets have an entire staff with the requisite depth and star energy to threaten the Thunder.
Houston nonetheless does not have as a lot top-end expertise because the champs, but it surely additionally does not have any actual weaknesses. Do not be stunned if the Rockets land the No. 2 seed once more however look extra playoff-ready whereas doing so. This tiger seems to be actual.
The Nuggets’ common construction stays the identical because it has for years: Nikola Jokic leads the best way, with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon offering assist. However there have additionally been loads of latest modifications in Denver: There is a new coach, a brand new entrance workplace and a newly competent bench, after Denver added Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and — if he does not return to Europe as an alternative — Jonas Valanciunas. Cameron Johnson additionally takes Michael Porter Jr.’s place because the knockdown shooter within the beginning lineup after switching groups this offseason.
If not for an surprising barrage of Luguentz Dort 3-pointers, the Nuggets very properly may have upset the Thunder within the second spherical this spring. They’ve since reloaded for an additional probability subsequent season.
Anthony Edwards‘ continued ascent would be the major issue figuring out whether or not Minnesota can return to the convention finals for the third straight season, and ideally enhance upon the previous two journeys by advancing to the Finals this time. However a lot additionally rests on the Timberwolves’ guard play past Edwards. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone to Atlanta, the remainder of Minnesota’s backcourt rotation consists of Mike Conley, who will rejoice his thirty eighth birthday earlier than the season begins; the streaky Donte DiVincenzo; and rising sophomores Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. The duo mixed to common simply 8.8 factors in 81 video games throughout their rookie seasons collectively.
There’s promise right here but additionally potential peril. The Timberwolves tried to carry their floor within the offseason by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid, but it surely’s arduous to argue they improved. In the meantime, the opposite groups on this tier made unimpeachable upgrades of their quest to catch the Thunder, and may need handed Minnesota within the course of.
Tier 3: The outdated guard
0:57
Why the Clippers traded Norman Powell, added John Collins
Ohm Youngmisuk breaks down the Clippers’ reasoning for giving up Norman Powell in a commerce that landed John Collins in Los Angeles.
The Clippers ought to arguably place one tier increased on this rating. Kawhi Leonard performed his first recreation final season on Jan. 4, and from then on, the Clippers ranked second within the West with a plus-7.2 internet ranking. They even outscored Denver in a seven-game collection loss within the first spherical, however two two-point losses, in addition to a lackluster exhibiting in Recreation 7, doomed the sleeper contender.
The excellent news for the Clippers is that Brook Lopez enters from Milwaukee as an underrated addition, fixing the backup heart drawback behind Ivica Zubac, and each key participant from the 2024-25 staff will likely be again in 2025-26, aside from Norman Powell, whom LA traded for John Collins on Monday. The dangerous information is that Leonard and James Harden, plus position gamers Lopez, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic, are all of their 30s, so it is truthful to wonder if the Clippers missed their probability final season.
Any staff with Luka Doncic or LeBron James, not to mention each, is routinely a contender. However do the Lakers have a sufficiently robust supporting forged to contend? There are some huge, difficult questions right here: Can lineups with Doncic, James and Austin Reaves maintain their very own on the defensive finish? Will new beginning heart Deandre Ayton, contemporary off a buyout, play with extra pressure and reverse his multiyear decline? Can Jake LaRavia exchange Finney-Smith? Is there sufficient taking pictures on this roster?
Count on the Lakers’ drama to proceed till they will firmly reply these questions.
The Warriors have been remarkably inactive this offseason, and so they’re in one thing of a holding sample as they wait totally free agent Al Horford to decide, whereas Jonathan Kuminga‘s restricted free company resolves. For now, they’re in an analogous place to how they ended final season: an excellent staff, particularly with Jimmy Butler III within the fold, however not a dominant one. Relying on how the remainder of the offseason unfolds, they might soar up a tier — bear in mind, they could have made the convention finals final season if Stephen Curry hadn’t been injured in Recreation 1 of the second spherical — however they have not but completed something to warrant that higher placement.
Cooper Flagg does not belong within the outdated guard, and the 18-year-old No. 1 decide represents the best motive to be excited concerning the Mavericks. However a staff led by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (as soon as he returns from his torn ACL), with Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell beginning within the backcourt, nonetheless qualifies for outdated guard designation.
The bigger query concerning the Mavericks is whether or not they have sufficient playmaking — whether or not Flagg can deal with level ahead duties as a rookie, whether or not the streaky Russell will get scorching and, most of all, whether or not Irving will return at full power or require one other yr to get again up to the mark.
Tier 4: Younger and hungry
1:20
Dylan Harper ‘able to get in there’ with the San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper speaks to Monica McNutt after being chosen by the Spurs with the 2nd decide.
Buying and selling Desmond Bane turned out to be extra of a one-off adjustment than the beginning of a full-blown rebuild. Memphis adopted up that stunning deal by signing Ty Jerome, buying and selling as much as draft Cedric Coward (a possible Bane substitute) and increasing each Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. There’s nonetheless loads of depth and expertise on this roster.
However with out Bane, the very best of that expertise is now concentrated at level guard and heart. To keep away from taking a step again, the Grizzlies want both Coward to excel as a rookie, Jaylen Wells to take an enormous leap in his second season or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bounce again after a down season in Orlando.
De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama shared the courtroom for simply 5 video games final season, within the slender hole between the previous’s commerce to San Antonio and the latter’s analysis of deep vein thrombosis, which ended Wembanyama’s standout second season prematurely. Add in No. 2 decide Dylan Harper and reigning Rookie of the 12 months winner Stephon Castle, and it is clear the Spurs nonetheless have an excessive amount of self-discovery forward.
In all chance, then, this will likely be a transition season for San Antonio because it begins to determine its identification and the way its gamers match collectively. After touchdown the No. 2 decide, the Spurs notably did not chase win-now strikes like a commerce for Durant. However additionally they may need extra potential for a fast rise in 2025-26, due to Wemby, who’s favored to win Defensive Participant of the 12 months and make an All-NBA staff.
Final season, the Path Blazers went 13-28 within the first half of their schedule, then 23-18 within the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as two-way contributors. And by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a beginning position — a transfer that included shopping for out Ayton — Portland affirmed and strengthened its defensive identification this summer season.
It is unclear whether or not the Simons-less Blazers have sufficient offensive juice to rise into the play-in ranks, and so they’ll be relying on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to point out extra progress within the backcourt. However for the staff with the West’s second-longest playoff drought — solely the Spurs’ is longer — issues are wanting up in Portland.
Tier 5: What is the plan?
1:30
Stephen A. on Suns’ draft night time: ‘What on earth are the Phoenix Suns doing?’
Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Suns drafting heart Khaman Maluach and buying and selling for heart Mark Williams on draft night time.
In 1,121 possessions with Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine sharing the ground final season, the Kings had an offensive ranking of 117.4, per Cleansing the Glass. That is a stable mark, rating within the 72nd percentile of all lineups leaguewide. However in those self same possessions, the Kings had a 120.9 defensive ranking, which ranked within the eleventh percentile. The Kings have stars, and so they’re usually entertaining — however they do not have a sensible path towards constantly profitable video games. Possibly they’d compete for a top-six seed within the Japanese Convention, however they don’t seem to be adequate within the West.
“What is the plan?” has been a good query to ask Phoenix for some time now, and this offseason hasn’t supplied any significant clarification. The Suns did not get an incredible return when buying and selling Durant, whereas concurrently including two facilities on draft night time and nonetheless missing any pure level guards or energy forwards of their projected rotation. Devin Booker and Jalen Green may make for a really awkward match as a beginning backcourt.
Count on the Suns, led by proprietor Mat Ishbia, to maintain sacrificing the long run to attempt to compete within the current. However do not anticipate too many precise wins.
One suspects the Pelicans would place themselves in a distinct tier, given the aggression with which they approached their offseason strikes, most notably buying and selling an unprotected 2026 first-round decide to maneuver up 10 spots within the 2025 draft. And there may be some motive for hope — primarily, if the Pelicans can take pleasure in higher well being after Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones mixed for simply 103 video games final season.
However with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram gone and Dejounte Murray out with a torn Achilles, there’s additionally loads of flux in New Orleans, with no clear long-term plan to construct a profitable roster. Even within the brief time period, it is not as if the Pelicans had been world-beaters of their uncommon moments of well being final season, as they completed 10-20 when Williamson performed, with a minus-4.3 internet ranking when Williamson and Murphy shared the ground.
On the one hand, Lauri Markkanen continues to be in Utah. The staff wished so as to add Jusuf Nurkic. And new president of basketball operations Austin Ainge stated in his introductory information convention, when requested about tanking, “You will not see that this yr.”
But then again, Utah shed John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton this summer season for minimal return; drafted an 18-year-old challenge in Ace Bailey; and is projected to play the youngest backcourt within the league. The Jazz may attempt to not tank and nonetheless lose 60-plus video games this season, given their very own deficiencies and the broad power throughout the remainder of the West.