Faculty realignment intel — Texas State, cryptic posts and the Pac-12’s subsequent transfer

Within the cloak-and-dagger world of convention realignment, clues to potential strikes can manifest in unusual locations.

One emerged final week by way of an X account with 313 followers selling Texas State tailback Lincoln Pare for the Heisman Trophy.

The account included an image, cribbed from the Instagram story of the Texas State president, of two beavers floating in the San Marcos River. And it famous the potential realignment ramifications — “Beavers within the San Marcos River” — by together with a scratching chin emoji that hinted at the potential for Texas State becoming a member of Oregon State within the Pac-12. (OSU’s nickname is, in fact, the Beavers, and the San Marcos River runs by the bustling city south of Austin the place Texas State resides.)

This seemingly would have pale into the background of the social-media-sphere if Texas State president Kelly Damphousse hadn’t reposted it on June 10. That set off a spark within the wake of a often scheduled Pac-12 assembly earlier within the week when Texas State’s candidacy was a spotlight of dialogue. (The Pac-12 declined remark for this story.)

So what’s subsequent for the Pac-12? And what ripples might buzz by the kinetic realignment panorama? This is what could possibly be coming within the subsequent wave of realignment, which is predicted to happen outdoors of the facility conferences.

What’s subsequent for the Pac-12?

Texas State is the heavy favourite, per ESPN sources, to be issued a proper Pac-12 invitation. The league continues to be engaged with different colleges, per sources, however Texas State has clearly emerged on the forefront of that group.

On July 1, the buyout for Texas State to depart the Solar Belt for the 2026-27 season will rise from $5 million to $10 million. That is clearly a much bigger motivator for Texas State than the Pac-12, nevertheless it’s seemingly a big sufficient deadline to set off motion.

For the Pac-12 to herald a brand new companion in a time of monetary uncertainty for the league, it will make sense to supply Texas State previous to July 1. In spite of everything, the Pac-12 wants an eighth soccer member for 2026, in order that they have their very own deadline looming.

In realignment, in fact, nothing is official till it is signed. And nothing is formal till it is accomplished. So with Texas State and the Pac-12, sources stated one of the simplest ways to elucidate the courtship is that the league is at the moment exploring making a proposal within the upcoming weeks.

Texas State has loomed for months as the favourite to affix the league and was prominently mentioned within the Pac-12’s digital assembly earlier this week. It has been the league’s high goal for months and is predicted to have voting help, because the league’s presidents are enamored with a foothold within the state and Damphousse’s management.

Texas State is booming as a college with an enrollment of greater than 40,000, and it boasts loads of tenets of soccer potential, with a wealthy native expertise base and a rising younger coach, G.J. Kinne, on the helm.

The league’s presidents will not vote on Texas State till they’re prepared for the method to unfold in rapid-fire succession. That is anticipated to return earlier than July 1. Texas State turned down a verbal provide from the Mountain West final fall, which athletic director Don Coryell referred to as “preliminary discussions with an convention.”

Texas State, if the Pac-12 course of unfolds as anticipated, could be the league’s ninth member general and eighth soccer member. A part of the sensation of inevitability of the invitation is tied to necessity. The league must develop to eight soccer members so as to qualify as an FBS convention. (Gonzaga is the non-football member.) Internally on the Pac-12, Texas State has lengthy been seen as the perfect available possibility for that eighth spot.

The exit price looms as a big motivator, as Texas State would be a part of to start out the 2026 season.

What would a proposal seem like? Properly, Damphousse’s social media hinted on the expectations of that once more. In April, he tweeted about his love of lobster bisque: “Individuals typically assume that I would be pleased with half a bowl of soup. In spite of everything, a cup of soup is healthier than no soup in any respect. However for me, it is a full bowl or nothing.”

That line was in response to hypothesis that Texas State would go to the Pac-12 for a part of a media share. It seems Damphousse needs a full one.

It is a affordable expectation contemplating Gonzaga might be a full member of the convention when it comes to media rights, regardless of not fielding a soccer group. Nonetheless, Gonzaga will not share absolutely in different football-related income.

The place does the Pac-12 go subsequent?

The Pac-12 has flailed a bit since initially including Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State final yr. It failed so as to add UNLV and Air Pressure, which stayed within the Mountain West for larger slices of the pie, earlier than including Utah State.

The league’s purpose was so as to add colleges from the AAC, however Tulane had little curiosity and an preliminary courtship so as to add Memphis hit a tough cease due to funds. The exit price to depart the AAC previous to the 27-month mark was estimated round $25 million. The Pac-12 provided solely about $2.5 million to assist with the buyout, which was rejected.

The place the Pac-12 goes past the eighth member is closely tied to some readability on the league’s monetary future. The league’s tv deal, with not less than three companions, is predicted to return collectively within the coming weeks. The timing of that deal, nevertheless, is just not essentially tied to the looming announcement of an eighth football-playing faculty.

In April, the Pac-12 agreed to a deal with the CW, ESPN and CBS to indicate the 13 dwelling soccer video games involving Oregon State and Washington State in 2025. These partnerships are usually not binding into 2026, however Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould stated beforehand the convention was searching for companions in 2025 that expressed serious about longer-term affiliations.

The funds from a brand new TV deal are anticipated to be under what the league’s consultants pitched colleges initially. Within the wake of the preliminary flurry of colleges going to the league, ESPN reported colleges had been proven projected income from a TV deal north of $10 million per faculty, however circumstances have modified.

That quantity initiatives beneath $10 million for the brand new deal beginning in 2026 however continues to be anticipated to be greater than these colleges would have obtained had they remained within the Mountain West. The opposite monetary variable is expounded to the buyouts for the 5 MW colleges.

In September, the Pac-12 filed a lawsuit in federal court docket difficult the legality of a “poaching penalty” included in a soccer scheduling settlement it signed with the Mountain West in December 2023. It was a step the Pac-12 took to mitigate or keep away from paying $55 million to the Mountain West, which the latter believes it’s owed as results of its 5 colleges leaving for the Pac-12. On high of that, there are particular person buyouts these colleges owe the Mountain West, which might collectively price the faculties greater than $70 million.

Earlier this yr, the Pac-12 — together with Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State — entered mediation with the Mountain West associated to those charges, and it is unclear how productive that course of has been. Wherever issues web out will seemingly issue into the convention’s subsequent steps.

What’s subsequent for Memphis?

In some ways, Memphis looms as probably the most attention-grabbing chess piece for future realignment outdoors of the facility leagues. It has a robust basketball program, 11 consecutive years of bowl eligibility in soccer and vital outdoors monetary help obtainable.

There does not look like a lot instant curiosity in Memphis from the facility leagues, per sources. And that continues to be Memphis’ final purpose, to get to the opposite aspect of the river.

If Memphis cannot work out a approach into an influence league within the subsequent few years – and there is no imminent realignment strikes anticipated at that degree – there’s more likely to be an additional exploration of some sort of break up convention affiliation.

Pac-12 officers have mentioned, per sources, Memphis approaching as a football-only member. This concept was made public in experiences within the fall by USA As we speak. The remainder of that athletic division’s sports activities would go to the Large East. This may permit Memphis to maximise basketball income in opposition to robust competitors and save on the journey of nonrevenue sports activities going out West.

The calculus in Memphis’ decision-making will rely upon myriad elements. That features the quantity of the media offers within the Pac-12 and what occurs with that league’s mediation with the Mountain West.

Memphis made $11 million all-in within the AAC final yr. That is a quantity anticipated to be forward of what the Pac-12 pays its full members.

What would a mix seem like? (The brand new Large East deal is predicted to dole out almost $7 million per faculty yearly, so the Memphis query could be whether or not its added stock might develop the pie to maintain that quantity complete.)

Memphis is such a vital piece to the cluster of leagues outdoors the facility conferences, because it’s one of many AAC’s bell cows. And a Memphis departure might create potential ripples, which is why its upcoming strikes are the linchpin of any vital upcoming motion.

The expectation within the Pac-12 is that no motion for Memphis to the Pac-12/Large East could be anticipated to be critically mentioned till not less than a 2027-28 begin date.

What could be the dominoes of the Pac-12 including Texas State?

Whereas sources stress there was no formal invitation but for Texas State, the transfer has reached the purpose the place the Solar Belt is getting ready for a departure.

Within the fall, when Texas State was flirting with different leagues, the Solar Belt had began to place collectively contingency plans. That included conversations, per sources, that established Louisiana Tech as the favourite over a number of different targets, together with Western Kentucky, if Texas State had been to depart. There would nonetheless have to be extra dialogue and presidential motion earlier than any addition.

Louisiana Tech’s location aids it right here, because the Solar Belt performs in divisions in soccer and a Texas State departure would imply a emptiness within the West.

The early attraction of Louisiana Tech that has been talked about, per sources, is that it has the geographic location to create pure rivalries and simple journey with ULM, Louisiana and Southern Miss. All are in the identical geographic footprint, and Louisiana Tech brings a robust custom in baseball and softball, that are valued by the Solar Belt.

The Solar Belt’s realignment technique for years has been to double-down on regional rivalries, and Louisiana Tech would fall into that class.

Western Kentucky could be enticing due to this system’s robust historical past in soccer and long-standing success in males’s basketball. It might have some help from colleges within the East, however the early learn is that Louisiana Tech is forward.

Per the Convention USA bylaws, a departing faculty would owe two years of income distribution and wish to purchase again the grant of rights. For a faculty to depart for 2026, the associated fee initiatives to be greater than $5 million.

Convention USA officers are involved sufficient concerning the potential ripple to their degree that they’ve begun strategizing behind the scenes to interchange a member faculty being poached.

If Louisiana Tech or one other faculty departed Convention USA and the league was to develop from 10 members, the favourite for the spot in Convention USA is Tarleton State College. That college has proven a big monetary dedication to athletics.