WARSAW, Poland — Poland is ready to carry a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates providing starkly completely different visions for the nation’s future.
The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who’s ending his second and closing time period. The end result will decide whether or not Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots extra absolutely towards liberal, pro-European insurance policies. An exit ballot by Ipsos can be launched when polls shut on Sunday at 9 p.m. native time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 share factors. Closing outcomes are anticipated Monday.
Whoever wins might be anticipated to both assist or hinder the agenda of the centrist authorities of Prime Minister Donald Tusk because of the presidential energy to veto legal guidelines.
The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions pushed by Russia’s warfare in neighboring Ukraine, safety considerations throughout Europe and inside debates in regards to the rule of legislation.
It follows a primary spherical on Could 18, wherein Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski received greater than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned practically 30%. Eleven different candidates have been eradicated.
Opinion polls present the 2 males working neck and neck. Different components add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did significantly better within the first spherical than surveys had predicted, indicating that his energy was underestimated. Then again, massive numbers of Poles overseas have registered to vote within the second spherical, which might assist Trzaskowski.
Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the nationwide conservative Regulation and Justice occasion regardless of a scarcity of political expertise or occasion membership. However that is seen as performing in his favor, because the occasion, which ruled for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its picture earlier than a parliamentary election in 2027.
Nawrocki’s supporters describe him because the embodiment of conventional, patriotic Polish values. They consider U.S. President Donald Trump’s help for him will strengthen Poland’s ties with the US and make the nation safer.
Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s mayor and an in depth ally of Tusk. A deputy chief of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union occasion, he has been distinguished in nationwide politics for years. That is his second presidential bid after narrowly dropping to Duda in 2020.
Supporters credit score him with modernizing Warsaw via infrastructure, public transit growth and cultural investments. He’s broadly seen as pragmatic and centered on strengthening ties with different European nations.
Nawrocki not too long ago obtained a boost from Trump and different U.S. conservatives, who see the Polish election as a part of a world battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces.
His marketing campaign has echoed themes in style on the American proper, together with skepticism towards EU forms and emphasis on Christian id. His supporters really feel that Trzaskowski, along with his pro-EU views, would hand over management of key Polish points to Paris and Berlin.
Nawrocki additionally has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him somebody who would defend democracy because it faces strain from authoritarian forces throughout the globe. He has obtained the help of latest centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan — who not too long ago defeated a far-right nationalist.
Nawrocki has confronted quite a few scandals over the previous months, but it surely’s not clear that they’re hurting him. The truth is, they may have the other impact. Many right-wing voters do not consider the allegations and accuse the media of utilizing its energy to harm him, creating what seems to be a rallying impact round him.
Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took half in an organized brawl together with soccer hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he mentioned he has taken half in varied types of “noble male battle” in his life.
Polish media have additionally reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution.
Tusk accused Regulation and Justice occasion chief Jarosław Kaczynski of tapping Nawrocki regardless of questions on his previous.
“You knew about every thing, Jarosław. In regards to the connections with the gangsters, about ‘fixing ladies,’” Tusk wrote on X. “Your entire duty for this disaster falls on you!”
1. Safety and warfare in Ukraine: With Russia’s warfare in Ukraine in its fourth 12 months, Polish voters are acutely attuned to problems with regional safety. Each candidates help continued backing for Ukraine, however to completely different levels. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine ought to by no means be a part of NATO, whereas Trzaskowski believes Ukraine must be allowed to hitch someday when the present warfare is over.
2. Rule of legislation and democracy: Trzaskowski has pledged to help the restoration of judicial independence and restore relations with the EU, which considered modifications by Regulation and Justice as anti-democratic. Tusk has tried to alter some laws, however has confronted resistance from the the outgoing president, Duda. Nawrocki, whereas much less outspoken than his occasion patrons, is seen as prone to protect Regulation and Justice’s modifications that politicized the courts.
3. Ladies’s rights: Abortion stays a divisive challenge in Poland, particularly after a near-total ban was imposed beneath Regulation and Justice. Trzaskowski helps loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalize abortion as much as 12 weeks. Nawrocki opposes any liberalization and has campaigned as a defender of conventional conservative values.