Crypto-focused prediction market Polymarket is going through a recent dose of criticism this week in relation to a market on whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would put on a go well with earlier than July.
Greater than $160 million price of crypto was bet on the market, with the preliminary consequence of “sure” being disputed by the validators behind UMA, the oracle protocol that determines the outcomes.
The worth of “sure” has now plummeted to $0.04 from $0.19, giving an implied chance of consequence at simply 4%. The “sure” voters are placing again, claiming that Zelenskyy did certainly put on a go well with on the NATO summit on June 24 and that there may very well be foul play by UMA validators to swing the choice.
The validators are holders of UMA protocol tokens, who get to vote on the veracity of the real-world information that is encoded within the protocol’s oracle. In idea, a large-enough swathe of token-holders might manipulate a outcome to their very own selecting.
This isn’t the primary time there was a divide between Polymarket and UMA communities. In March one other Ukrainian-themed market was disputed amid claims of manipulation from giant holders of UMA.
“Everyone knows the whales try to rig the UMA vote on the Zelensky go well with market,” X consumer Atlantislq wrote. “However that doesn’t imply we must always keep silent. It is a vital second Polymarket claims to care about fact and decentralization so let’s maintain them to it.”
AI chat bot Grok took the side of “yes” voters, saying that “Zelenskyy wore a go well with in June 2025.”
On the opposite aspect, common menswear influencer and author who goes by the moniker “derek man” guess $3.6 million in the marketplace resolving as “no.” He stands to make $72,000 if the guess is profitable.
A remaining decision in the marketplace shall be made at 00:00 UTC on July 8.