Projecting 2024 rookie QB class in 2025: Can Caleb Williams bounce again, Jayden Daniels proceed his rise?

Welcome to NFL Ideas, a wide-ranging, in-depth take a look at among the prime storylines of the 2025 season. In final yr’s collection, we assessed the Chiefs’ three-peat probabilities (shut however so far-off), how star operating backs in new locations would fare (very effectively, it turned out) and if the 49ers would lastly fall off (TBD, however 2024 actually wasn’t fairly) amongst a number of different subjects. This yr, we’re beginning with the quarterbacks from the historic 2024 rookie class.

The 2024 quarterback class was unprecedented in each celebrity energy and depth. In Caleb Williams (No. 1, Bears) and Jayden Daniels (No. 2, Commanders), the category featured every of the earlier two Heisman winners. Add in Drake Maye to the Patriots, and it was simply the second class this millennium to have quarterbacks chosen with every of the primary three picks. When Michael Penix Jr. went eighth to the Falcons and J.J. McCarthy tenth to the Vikings, it represented the primary time 5 quarterbacks went within the prime 10. Bo Nix going twelfth to the Broncos completed up an incredible run.

Solely as soon as beforehand had six quarterbacks gone within the prime dozen: the famed 1983 class, which produced Corridor of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.

It’s miles too early to begin making Canton busts or declaring “busts,” however the 2024 rookie quarterbacks produced aplenty of highs and lows. Furthermore, all six enter 2025 with key roles and intriguing outlooks. There are authentic arguments that every one six of their groups might make the playoffs. There are additionally main questions. It is an enchanting group, and Williams is likely to be probably the most fascinating of all of them.

Caleb Williams: Eliminating unfavourable performs, bettering deep ball

New Bears coach Ben Johnson raised an eyebrow or two on the NFL homeowners conferences when he defined his ideas on which metrics he makes use of to evaluate an efficient passing offense.

“The EPA [expected points added] within the passing recreation is actually probably the most essential elements in figuring out wins and losses proper now,” Johnson stated. “That is in all probability modified during the last 5 years or so. I might have stated 5 years in the past turnovers, takeaways, that was No. 1. From what I perceive now, EPA for the passing recreation has now surpassed that. No matter crew has the upper passing recreation EPA on the finish of the sport, they often win that recreation over 80 p.c of the time. It is an enormous stat.”

Stats nerds (myself included) rejoice!

“Anticipated factors” elements in down, distance, subject place, time remaining, and many others. and assigns a lot of factors a crew is “anticipated” to attain based mostly on historic information. You are anticipated to attain far more factors on first and aim from 1 than you’re third at 10 from your individual 25.

Primarily, not all play conditions and outcomes are equal, even when their field rating look is identical. Finishing a 5-yard go on fourth and 4 would add to your anticipated factors, because the crew improves its probabilities to attain on that drive by incomes a primary down; finishing a 5-yard go on fourth and 10 would subtract, as a result of the crew can now not rating.

In 2024, solely Anthony Richardson and Will Levis generated a worse anticipated factors added than Williams did. The most important challenge was sacks, an absolute killer in EPA. Williams took 68 sacks final yr, 16 greater than anybody else. The Bears misplaced an anticipated 108 factors on Williams’ sacks taken, second-worst on document (since 2000), solely behind Bryce Younger’s disastrous 2023 rookie marketing campaign.

We needn’t rewind Williams’ sack points. They have been painful to look at bodily — he bought completely walloped — and as an analyst. Whereas many individuals take a look at purple zone numbers, one other space to deal with right here is simply outdoors the purple zone, between the 20 and midfield. When drives attain this space, you need to rating one thing. Williams misplaced an estimated 52 factors on sacks on this space alone, the worst by any participant since 2000.

Here is an ideal instance of the way you grow to be the worst quarterback ever in a stat: It is Week 3, and the Bears are trailing the Texans 16-10 within the third quarter, going through third and 1 on the Texans’ 41-yard line. At this juncture, the Bears have an anticipated factors worth of three.0: Traditionally, groups end the drive with the equal of a subject aim. Williams will get hammered by Will Anderson Jr. for a seven-yard sack. The Bears punt and by no means get any nearer in an eventual 19-13 loss. That one play value the Bears an estimated 3.3 factors, as they not solely miss out on doubtlessly scoring, however they offer the ball again to Houston.

That is what the numbers say. What the movie says is worse: The Bears’ safety plan falls aside as left deal with Braxton Jones blocks down and tight finish Cole Kmet, coming throughout the formation, is left one-on-one. This, predictably, goes poorly: Kmet whiffs and throws his fingers up — this can be a blown project, a poorly-executed play or each — and a split-second later, Williams will get crunched from his blindside.

We will discuss points with Williams taking part in on time — they’re actually current — however he had no likelihood right here.

Enter Johnson, who’s right here to ideally repair each. Jared Goff, who is just not practically as athletic as Williams is, had the Thirteenth-lowest sack price within the NFL final yr, and a number of other of them have been sacks an athlete of Williams’ caliber might have averted (and did keep away from as a rookie). Detroit not often had a poor go safety plan, they usually had nice gamers to execute.

Johnson ought to convey the primary half. The Bears addressed the second half with verve this offseason, buying and selling for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing Drew Dalman in free company. They’re all clear upgrades over the mishmash inside offensive line from 2024. Williams confronted probably the most fast pressures within the NFL final yr, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.

For as a lot as EPA hates sacks, it additionally loves huge performs. Whenever you rating an 80-yard landing, you add a ton of anticipated factors contemplating what was “anticipated” given the world of the sphere. Changing downfield pictures is big.

Williams was additionally unhealthy on this space. He accomplished simply 22 of 80 throws at the least 20 yards downfield, and over 41% of such throws have been off course, that means he did not even give his teammate an opportunity. Solely Mac Jones was worse there. The Bears simply stored peppering deep pictures, although. These 80 makes an attempt have been most within the NFL.

Chicago was hailed as an impressive touchdown spot for Williams. It rapidly proved to be something however. The teaching was abysmal from a schematic standpoint but in addition relating to the fundamentals. Williams stated no one taught him how to watch film. He was basically thrown into the ocean with out a life preserver.

Williams simply by no means appeared snug. When he tried to play rapidly and/or all the time on time, he appeared robotic, and it took away from his freelancing skills. When he tried to freelance an excessive amount of, it resulted in disastrous sacks. Loads of occasions, he did not also have a likelihood to do both.

The hope right here is that Williams will get higher steering beneath Johnson and higher safety from an upgraded line. The plan might be a lot better, however Williams can even must play in construction extra successfully, be extra correct downfield and take fewer sacks.

Amid an unsightly debut, Williams confirmed some actual positives, too. One can activate his spotlight tape to see the improvisation and arm expertise. However on some basic ranges, there have been encouraging indicators, too. Solely two gamers had a decrease turnover-worthy throw price than Williams, no small feat given the poor mess around him. He confirmed some actual scrambling savvy when he might navigate the pocket and discover a lane.

Johnson’s first aim might be getting Williams snug. However Williams has to point out Johnson might be snug with him as his quarterback, too, by taking part in on time and never taking unhealthy sacks that wreck drives. Solely then will the 2 be capable of take full benefit of Williams’ pure expertise, which stays immense. It could take a while within the first yr of their partnership, however there’s little doubting that the infrastructure is certainly in place for Williams to get again on monitor.

Jayden Daniels will be even better in 2025, says Commanders RB who foresees ‘powerhouse’ season ahead

Carter Bahns

Jayden Daniels: Minor tweaks after excellent debut

Daniels produced the most effective rookie seasons ever — if not the perfect rookie season ever — by a quarterback. He was preternaturally calm. He processed defenses like a 10-year veteran. His bodily items have been as marketed, and maybe even higher.

The next notes, therefore, should not actually criticisms, however merely nits to select — possibly the distinction between a star, which he already is, and a celebrity, a surefire MVP candidate.

First, we might wish to see Daniels enhance his accuracy from contained in the pocket. Although correct normally and extremely correct outdoors the pocket, Daniels had an 11.2% off-target price on throws within the pocket, twenty fifth out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks. Whereas the misses weren’t manner off, Daniels did depart some open throws on the sphere when his mobility wasn’t an element.

This usually occurred over two settings: when the protection did a great job preserving him hemmed in or for a small stretch after Daniels’ rib damage. Within the four-week stretch after Daniels’ damage towards the Panthers, he scrambled on simply 9.5% of his dropbacks, down from his 12.5% price for the season as an entire. He did not have a single scramble towards the Steelers. And in these video games, he had a number of misses from the pocket. Daniels’ worst recreation from the pocket was his single half towards the Cowboys in Week 18, when he knew he was solely going to play one half and was purposely largely confined to the pocket for security functions. (The Commanders had already clinched a playoff berth.)

Daniels had 75 scrambles final season, 25 greater than some other participant and probably the most in a single season since and probably the most on document (since 2000). Whereas he’s a wonderful scrambler, the movie reveals he might need had even larger good points if he stored his eyes up a split-second longer.

Once more, these are minor critiques. Daniels was excellent. The Commanders upgraded each deal with spots with perennial Professional Bowler Laremy Tunsil and first-round decide Josh Conerly, that means Daniels ought to encounter fewer muddy pockets from which he can wrestle. Kliff Kingsbury is again as offensive coordinator after turning down potential job alternatives. Daniels ought to have a monster second yr.

Drake Maye: Higher decision-making and accuracy, plus extra operating

Should you learn the caption above and suppose “this man would not care for the ball and is not correct — he have to be unhealthy,” you are mistaken. With dreadful environment, Maye confirmed some actually good issues, maybe most significantly that he might hold his head above water.

Maye had a 47.4% success price, seventeenth out of 36 quarterbacks and proper round what Sam Darnold produced in Minnesota. Jacoby Brissett, taking part in in the identical offense as Maye, had a 37.6% success price, which might have been the worst amongst qualifying quarterbacks. Maye stored the Patriots at on monitor. He made a whole lot of actually spectacular throws, and his operating skills are authentic. Regardless of taking part in in simply 13 video games, Maye scrambled 45 occasions (tied for fourth-most within the NFL) for 407 yards (second-most), and his 9.0 yards per scramble have been second within the NFL, too.

We would wish to see extra designed runs from Maye. He had only one non-sneak designed run all season, and it went for 13 yards! Josh McDaniels spent a whole lot of his time with Tom Brady, however he additionally spent a yr with Cam Newton, so he is aware of the way to use a cell quarterback.

As a passer, Maye had typical rookie ups and downs. He threw 10 interceptions and had a 12.1% off-target price. When he missed, he might miss wildly. Maye has the arm expertise to entry each sort of throw, although, and whereas interceptions are by no means good, these have been the sorts of interceptions he can be taught from: making an attempt to suit balls into tight areas, throwing deep pictures, and many others.

Maye has a bit of little bit of younger Josh Allen in him: highly effective athlete, huge arm, erratic outcomes. However the Patriots have made important enhancements round him, giving him bookend tackles in Will Campbell and Morgan Moses, a brand new middle in Garrett Bradbury and a reliable receiver in Stefon Diggs. It isn’t good, but it surely’s higher. Count on some head-scratching errors as Maye continues to develop, however anticipate some extra consistency and a number of other encouraging moments, too.

Michael Penix Jr.: Reining it in, bettering on play motion

Penix performed in simply 5 video games (beginning three) however flashed in that small pattern measurement. The numbers would look even higher had Penix not been the sufferer of eight drops in his three begins, two of which resulted in interceptions.

Penix has an absolute hose of a left arm, however reining it in might be key. Over 13% of his passes have been off-target, the seventh-highest price amongst 47 gamers who took at the least 75 dropbacks. Utilizing Subsequent Gen Stats, Penix had a -11.2 completion share over anticipated in a vital recreation towards the Commanders and was at -6.3 per week later towards the Panthers. These are throws he must make, particularly as a result of he can make so many high-level throws. The misses towards Washington have been ugly and dear.

We’ll even be involved in how Penix develops as a play-action thrower. Atlanta did basically no play-action passing with Kirk Cousins a shell of himself post-Achilles tear. However they dabbled in it with Penix. Although Penix is just not a scrambler, he isn’t a nasty athlete, and one would suppose offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, plucked off the Sean McVay teaching tree, want to broaden that. Penix used some play motion at Washington. We’ll see what he and Robinson have up their sleeves.

NFL’s most overrated and underrated QBs: Where do Cowboys, Eagles veterans rank going into 2025?

Cody Benjamin

J.J. McCarthy: Hitting the center of the sphere

It is exhausting to know what McCarthy will ship. He had loads of beginning expertise at Michigan however was additionally geared up with a superb offensive line, sturdy operating recreation and one of many nation’s finest defenses. Then he missed all of final season with a torn meniscus.

We do know precisely what Kevin O’Connell needs McCarthy to ship: exact play-action passing over the center of the sphere, concentrating on Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on in-breaking routes, usually from beneath middle. The Vikings have been sixth in play-action price final yr and third in under-center price.

McCarthy excelled throwing to this space of the sphere in school, finishing practically 79% of his passes on 9.7 yards per try in between the numbers. He has the requisite zip to entry this space downfield. However home windows shut rapidly within the NFL.

We’ll even be involved in if and the way O’Connell takes benefit of McCarthy’s athleticism, an underrated side to his recreation.

Bo Nix: Succeeding on straight dropbacks

Nix was a pleasing shock as a rookie, delivering 29 landing passes to 12 interceptions. Whereas his 6.7 yards per try ranked simply twenty ninth of 36 qualifiers, he was a a lot more healthy twentieth in EPA per dropback. A giant a part of this was Nix’s capability to keep away from sacks: Solely Josh Allen and Derek Carr had a decrease unfavourable play price.

Nonetheless, twentieth in EPA per dropback is not precisely nice — it was immediately behind Aidan O’Connell, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco — and Nix has just a few areas he can enhance upon. The Broncos began leaning into play motion because the season progressed, which was a serious assist for Nix. Have a look at these variations:

Sean Payton would not essentially need to lean into play motion, however with out it, Nix struggled. And when the operating recreation did not pose a menace or when Denver trailed, play motion did not assist. Within the blowout playoff loss to the Payments, Denver solely ran 4 play motion performs. When issues weren’t instantly open for Nix and he was caught within the pocket, he had the propensity to take sacks making an attempt to increase performs, one thing he largely averted in any other case.

This was a giant a part of Nix’s scouting report popping out. He might thrive on-schedule and wrestle when he could not get the ball out rapidly. Nonetheless, what we maybe did not give him sufficient credit score for is his speeding capability. Nix scrambled for 25 first downs, second within the NFL behind Daniels, and was seventh in EPA on scrambles.

There’s a ceiling with Nix, who would not have the largest arm and is not probably the most correct downfield. He’ll pressure some issues which may not be there, however he’ll additionally make some spectacular throws — this frozen rope to Marvin Mims Jr. was considered one of my favourite throws of the yr. His tendency to attempt to make these throws, after all, can get him in some hassle. However Nix confirmed outstanding poise and know-how in his debut season, and people intangibles will serve him effectively.