Russia took weeks to current to Ukraine with a “memorandum” setting out its circumstances for a ceasefire, in addition to key tips for a complete treaty to finish the greater than 3-year-old war. To virtually nobody’s shock, it’s an inventory of the Kremlin’s longstanding, maximalist calls for that Kyiv and its Western allies see as nonstarters.
Ukraine had set its negotiating stance earlier than Monday’s direct peace talks in Istanbul, emphasizing its readiness to declare a 30-day ceasefire instantly with out preconditions that was proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Kyiv reaffirmed its refusal to desert a bid for NATO membership and rejected acknowledgment of Russia’s annexation of any of its areas.
Each side have established mutually unique purple traces that make any fast deal unlikely.
Moscow’s calls for, revealed within the Russian media, make it clear that President Vladimir Putin is determined to make sure the success of the targets in Ukraine he set when he launched the invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
Key factors of the Russian and Ukrainian paperwork:
Russia supplied Ukraine a alternative of two choices for establishing a 30-day ceasefire.
One choice is that Ukraine should withdraw its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — the 4 areas Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022 however by no means absolutely captured.
The second choice described by Moscow because the “package deal” proposal, presses Ukraine to halt its mobilization efforts and freeze Western arms deliveries — circumstances that had been steered earlier by Putin.
On prime of that, the doc additionally calls for that Ukraine start demobilizing its navy, halt any redeployment of forces and ban the presence of any third-country forces on its soil.
The “package deal” choice additional proposes that Ukraine finish martial legislation and maintain elections, after which the 2 international locations may signal a complete peace treaty.
The Russian doc declares that circumstances for peace should embody the “worldwide authorized recognition” of Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and its 2022 annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia areas.
It says a future peace treaty ought to have Ukraine declare its impartial standing between Russia and the West, and abandon its bid to hitch NATO. The doc calls for that Ukraine restrict the dimensions of its armed forces, acknowledge Russian as an official language on par with Ukrainian, ban “glorification and propaganda of Nazism and neo-Nazism” and dissolve nationalist teams -– circumstances reflecting Putin’s targets from the outset of his invasion.
The false allegations that neo-Nazi teams had been shaping Ukraine’s politics beneath President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who’s Jewish, have been vehemently dismissed by Kyiv and its Western allies.
In Russia’s view, a complete peace treaty must also see each international locations raise all sanctions and restrictions, abandon any claims to compensation for wartime harm, resume commerce and communications, and reestablish diplomatic ties. It additionally means that the peace treaty between Russian and Ukraine be endorsed by a decision of the U.N. Safety Council.
The memorandum that Ukraine submitted to Moscow earlier than the talks and shared with its allies emphasised the necessity for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to set stage for peace negotiations.
It reaffirmed Ukraine’s constant rejection of Russian calls for for impartial standing as an assault on its sovereignty, declaring it’s free to decide on its alliances and including that its NATO membership will depend upon consensus with the alliance.
It emphasised Kyiv’s rejection of any restrictions on the dimensions and different parameters of its armed forces, in addition to curbs on the presence of overseas troops on its soil.
Ukraine’s memorandum additionally opposed recognizing any Russian territorial positive factors, whereas describing the present line of contact as a place to begin in negotiations.
The doc famous the necessity for worldwide safety ensures to make sure the implementation of peace agreements and forestall additional aggression.
The Ukrainian peace proposal additionally demanded the return of all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian kids and an “all-for-all” prisoner trade.
It held the door open to gradual lifting of among the sanctions towards Russia if it abides by the agreeme
The sharply conflicting calls for leave little hope for any fast progress in talks.
By sustaining its maximalist calls for, Moscow is seemingly unfazed by repeated threats of sanctions by the West or different stress to make actual concessions.
Some observers see the Russian memorandum as a approach by Moscow to formalize its negotiation place.
“Even an unsigned doc provides the Kremlin a firmer diplomatic foothold,” mentioned Moscow-based protection analyst Sergei Poletaev.
Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Middle famous that the doc displays Putin’s key aim of of securing a “pleasant” Ukraine and not using a full-fledged navy or ties of any form with its Western allies.
She famous the Russian doc presents Ukraine a alternative between the 2 choices as a result of Moscow is aware of {that a} Ukrainian withdrawal from the 4 areas “just isn’t viable and seeks to push Kyiv towards the second as the first course.” On the similar time, Moscow’s memorandum seems to point that “Russia is open to contemplating leaving components of the annexed areas that it doesn’t management to Ukraine.”
Stanovaya mentioned Moscow’s maximalist calls for imply that “the combating is about to proceed, even when bilateral interactions persist.”