President Donald Trump has tried to justify firing former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer by claiming that her company’s gold normal employment reports had been “rigged” so as to hurt him politically.
Trump has offered no proof to assist his allegation, even amid mounting criticism that the elimination will undermine belief within the information that’s used to gauge the well being of the economic system and make main coverage choices.
And experts say that even when a BLS commissioner wished to control month-to-month jobs report information, it might be unimaginable given how the info is collected, analyzed and launched to the general public.
Nonetheless, Trump has repeatedly claimed that the BLS issued “phony” strong-looking jobs numbers over the past 12 months of the Biden administration, solely to revise them sharply downward proper after the 2024 presidential election.
“Simply days earlier than the [Nov. 5 presidential] election, they put out numbers that it was just like the nation was on fireplace,” Trump claimed Tuesday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“And then they did a revision about two weeks later, and the revision was down by virtually 900,000 jobs,” he alleged.
When a number pushed again, Trump doubled down, claiming “the numbers had been rigged.”
“They introduced these phenomenal numbers the 2 days earlier than the election and slightly bit earlier than that, at all times these nice numbers … However after I received the election, then they introduced a downward quantity, in different phrases, to convey it again to actuality,” Trump stated.
However Trump’s account of how the roles report revisions had been issued in 2024 is flawed. And the true timeline undermines his claims.
August 2024: Main downward revision
The BLS’ often issued jobs reviews routinely embody revisions to the prior month’s numbers, as extra information trickles in that paints a clearer image of U.S. employment.
It is true that the BLS issued a big revision to its jobs tally final 12 months: The company revealed that the U.S. economic system added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the 12 months ended March 2024.
However that revision didn’t come after the election, as Trump advised Tuesday. Slightly, it was issued in August 2024 — greater than two months earlier than the election, and after then-Vice President Kamala Harris had taken the reins because the Democratic nominee.
Trump pounced on the determine on the time. “New Knowledge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics exhibits that the Administration PADDED THE NUMBERS with an additional 818,000 Jobs that DO NOT EXIST, AND NEVER DID,” he claimed in an Aug. 21 submit on Truth Social.
The determine got here within the BLS’ preliminary annual benchmark revision, when its employment estimates derived from surveys are calibrated towards state unemployment insurance coverage tax information.
The ultimate benchmark, launched in February, months after the election, revised hiring down by 598,000 — decrease than the preliminary determine from August.
October 2024: Hiring slows dramatically
Trump can be flawed to assert that the BLS issued “phenomenal numbers” simply earlier than the 2024 election.
The truth is, the ultimate jobs report earlier than the election revealed a sharp slowdown in October hiring, after a surge the previous month.
That Nov. 1 report — lower than per week earlier than Election Day — confirmed simply 12,000 employees had been added to U.S. nonfarm payrolls in October.
On the time, it was the smallest month-to-month job achieve in practically 4 years, and it fell nicely under consultants’ already low expectations.
As quickly because the Nov. 1 report was launched, it was instantly weaponized for political functions — by Trump, who used the info to bash Harris.
“At this time’s jobs report is a good embarrassment for our Nation. Kamala has lied for years about their pathetic job progress, which has by no means been actual,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Nov. 1. “America is a Nation in Decline as a result of Sleepy Joe, and Lyin’ Kamala, did not do their job.”
The BLS would later revise that weak jobs determine upward — however not till after Trump had received the election.
Furthermore, the sharp decline in October’s preliminary report is now understood to have been pushed by a number of components exterior of anybody’s management.
Main labor strikes at Boeing and at U.S. ports had the short-term impact of eradicating 1000’s of employees from payrolls in October.
Hurricanes within the Southeast additionally impacted that preliminary report by closing roads and companies, making it harder to gather correct information.
The White Home didn’t reply to CNBC’s request for remark or additional rationalization of Trump’s remarks.
A Labor Division official, in feedback offered by the White Home, criticized McEntarfer’s management, saying that she waited too lengthy to tell the division about data-collection challenges on the BLS.
However these will not be the critiques Trump has made himself.
As a substitute, Trump introduced McEntarfer’s firing in a Friday afternoon social media submit that accused her of getting “faked the Jobs Numbers earlier than the Election to try to increase Kamala’s probabilities of Victory.”
CNBC has reached out to McEntarfer for remark.
“I’ve directed my Crew to fireside this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump wrote. “Vital numbers like this should be truthful and correct, they can not be manipulated for political functions.”
The submit got here hours after the preliminary jobs report for the month of July confirmed weaker-than-expected progress.
The BLS in that report additionally issued two revisions to preliminary reviews from earlier months. Each of them revised the roles numbers sharply downward, shaving a mixed whole of 258,000 jobs off the 12 months’s tally.
The downward revisions and the missed expectations for July spurred a sharp decline in monetary markets. By Friday’s shut, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen greater than 500 factors.
The White Home has defended Trump’s choice, with Nationwide Financial Council Director Kevin Hassett saying on NBC Information that the job revisions “are hard evidence” in assist of the president’s claims.
Trump stated he plans to announce McEntarfer’s successor within the coming days.