Because the NBA’s play-by-play period started within the 1996-97 season, LeBron James has probably the most postseason pictures to both tie or take the lead within the closing three seconds of regulation or time beyond regulation with eight. Earlier than the 2025 postseason, nobody else had greater than 4 in practically the previous 30 years.
Effectively, on Thursday, Tyrese Haliburton made his fourth of the 2025 playoffs alone. Haliburton has now made one such shot in every of the 4 rounds this postseason, doing so in Recreation 5 towards the Milwaukee Bucks, Recreation 2 towards the Cleveland Cavaliers and Recreation 1 towards the New York Knicks. Nobody else within the play-by-play period, together with James, has made no less than one such shot in every of the 4 rounds throughout their whole careers. Michael Jordan did so, however did not full his bingo card till the 1997 NBA Finals, his second-to-last journey to the postseason.
Haliburton has finished in a single postseason what it took Jordan a complete profession to do and what James nonetheless hasn’t completed in his 22 NBA seasons. That raises a quite simple query: is Tyrese Haliburton at the moment having the best clutch playoff run in NBA historical past?
The reply, finally, comes right down to your definition. When you’re measuring solely the previous few seconds, Haliburton is a runaway winner primarily based on what we coated. Develop the window barely and the reply most likely stays the identical — Haliburton has made six pictures to tie or take the lead within the closing 90 seconds of video games this postseason, also the most of the play-by-play period.
The web site Inpredictable has a stat referred to as clutch win probability added. Primarily, it measures what number of further wins a participant was value within the clutch over an outlined interval. Throughout this postseason, Haliburton’s clutch taking pictures has added an estimated 2.48 wins for the Pacers. In second place throughout the play-by-play period? James, at 1.86 in 2013. Nobody for the reason that 1996-97 season has touched the worth Haliburton’s shot-making within the clutch has generated this spring.
If you wish to attempt to apply that worth to successful, contemplate what statistician Micah Adams tweeted concerning the 4 video games during which Haliburton made these pictures. At their lowest level when it comes to win likelihood in every of them, the Pacers’ odds of victory ranged from 3% in Recreation 1 of the Finals to 0.3% in Recreation 1 of the Jap Convention finals. They clearly received all 4 video games, and for those who calculate the percentages for that primarily based on their win likelihood in every of them, the percentages of Indiana successful all 4 had been round one-in-75 million.
For example you wish to simplify this a bit. The NBA has its personal, official definition for clutch: the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter or time beyond regulation with the scoring margin inside 5 factors. Indiana has performed in 9 official clutch video games this postseason. It has received eight of them. That offers them a clutch successful share of 88.9%. That’s the highest clutch successful share of the play-by-play period for a staff that has performed in no less than 9 clutch video games.
In fact, now that we have opened the door to the league’s official definition of “clutch,” we now have to acknowledge that clutch efficiency typically encompasses greater than the previous few seconds. When you embody your complete previous couple of minutes, issues begin to get messier. Think about Haliburton’s general clutch scoring whole this postseason. He has 33 factors. That is very spectacular … however one in all his playoff victims, Jalen Brunson, had 56.
Haliburton shouldn’t be precisely a compiler of particular person numbers. Richard Jefferson joked on the published that he was taking pictures “tour dates.” From a scoring quantity perspective, he is subsequently going to wrestle in comparison with extra prolific bucket-getters. In equity, although, clutch efficiency is clearly extra difficult than simply scoring.
Quite a lot of Haliburton’s worth comes from establishing his teammates and ensuring that somebody, even when it is not him, will get up an excellent look. He has an 8-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio this postseason. The Pacers have performed practically 89 clutch minutes this postseason and have solely three turnovers. To convey Brunson again into this, the Knicks performed nearly 64 clutch minutes and turned the ball over 14 instances. Haliburton’s groups do not waste clutch possessions. They at all times get a shot.
Naming a single, most clutch playoff run ever subsequently turns into fairly subjective. That’s very true since we solely have outlined clutch knowledge from 1997 on. Magic Johnson, Larry Fowl, and Jordan’s youthful self would most likely issue into these discussions fairly prominently if we may simply quantify what they had been doing. With that stated, there is a quick checklist right here from the play-by-play period. It contains three seasons:
- 1998 Michael Jordan: We have coated him. He scored 76 factors with eight assists, six rebounds, three steals and three blocks for a Bulls staff that went 8-6 within the clutch. That document itself shouldn’t be particularly spectacular, however it appears higher in context. That Bulls staff was on its final legs. Scottie Pippen was injured. Dennis Rodman was washed. Everybody knew they had been about to interrupt up, and Jordan nonetheless dragged them to a championship.
- 2007 LeBron James: True, he did not win a championship, however he took a laughable supporting solid all the best way to the NBA Finals and shocked the top-seeded Detroit Pistons alongside the best way. Apart from his 58 clutch factors, he additionally had a ridiculous 14-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. James clearly has his fair proportion of clutch moments all through his profession, however in 2007, he had arguably the best purely clutch sport in league historical past. In Recreation 5 of the Jap Convention finals towards Detroit, James scored 25 clutch factors to steal home-court benefit and finally get the Cavaliers to the Finals.
- 2011 Dirk Nowitzki: This was about as flawless a postseason clutch run as exists in league historical past. Nowitzki scored 66 clutch factors on 54-60-97 taking pictures. His Mavericks went 11-5 towards a collection of opponents that included Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The crowning achievement? Dallas received his 49.6 clutch minutes by 73 whole factors. It took a miraculous run to win the Mavericks their first and solely championship, however Nowitzki did it.
There are different candidates, however every is flawed in some significant manner. Allen Iverson in 2001, Kobe Bryant in 2002 and Kawhi Leonard in 2019 had been only a shade too inefficient to make the checklist. Shaquille O’Neal in 2000 would have finished so simply if he may have made his free throws. Quite a few different James years simply barely missed the reduce for some purpose or one other. Stephen Curry taking pictures 9-of-16 from 3 within the clutch in 2016 ought to have gotten him on the checklist … however he and the Warriors misplaced Recreation 7 of the Finals on their residence courtroom, so no cube.
What Haliburton has finished individually this postseason stands above that group. He’s already, frankly, within the firm of 2007 James as a shock finalist. However what clearly stands aside when you think about 1998 Jordan and 2011 Nowitzki is that they received championships.
Haliburton is tantalizingly near that prize. He is simply three wins away, and he can get all of them at residence. If he does so towards a 68-win Thunder staff, successful his third-consecutive collection with out home-court benefit within the course of, his resume would possibly turn out to be unimpeachable. No, he does not rating as prolifically as Jordan or Nowitzki did, however his general impression on these video games can’t be denied.
In a vacuum, he is taking video games that mathematically appear like sure losses and turning them into victories. However the larger impression may be intangible. For opponents, losses like which are devastating. They will demoralize a staff, they usually could make them play tight in future installments within the collection. Solely a small variety of gamers in NBA historical past have ever had that impact on their opponents within the playoffs constantly, and Haliburton might be amongst them now.
If he can actually pull this off — if he can win a championship as a No. 4 seed on this particular manner — it might be nearly unattainable to refute that he is had probably the most clutch playoff run in NBA historical past.