Sean O’Malley appears to be like to reclaim the UFC males’s bantamweight championship when he takes on titleholder Merab Dvalishvili in the primary occasion of UFC 316 on Saturday evening (10 ET on ESPN PPV, with prelims at 8 on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+ and early prelims at 6 on ESPN+/Disney+).
O’Malley, ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, held the title from August 2023 to September 2024, when he misplaced to Dvalishvili by unanimous determination. That is O’Malley first struggle for the reason that loss. Dvalishvili, ESPN’s No. 4-ranked males’s pound-for-pound fighter, beat Umar Numagomedov by unanimous determination in his final struggle.
Within the co-main occasion, Julianna Peña places her girls’s bantamweight title on the road in opposition to Kayla Harrison. Peña, ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s girls’s P4P rankings, narrowly beat Raquel Pennington by break up determination to say the title. That is Peña’s second title run. Harrison, ESPN’s No. 4-ranked girls’s P4P fighter, enters the struggle following a unanimous determination win over Ketlen Vieira. Harrison is a former two-time PFL champion.
Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC fighters Din Thomas and Anthony Smith to get their predominant occasion predictions. ESPN betting knowledgeable Ian Parker provides perception and evaluation on the primary occasion and different intriguing bets he likes on the cardboard.
Males’s bantamweight championship
“This [pick] has nothing to do with O’Malley. I simply assume in an effort to beat Merab, you need to be the bantamweight model of the late Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson. There needs to be that one-punch, ‘shut-off’ energy. O’Malley fights so effectively at vary, however I do not assume Merab goes to offer him house to do what he does finest. ” — Anthony Smith
“It is going to be barely nearer and extra aggressive than their first [fight], however I believe Merab’s depth can be a little bit an excessive amount of for O’Malley. And in the end, O’Malley will not have the ability to keep off his again. ” — Din Thomas
Betting evaluation
Odds correct as of June. For essentially the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.
Parker: Dvalishvili to win by determination (-170). It’s exhausting to think about this rematch going any otherwise than the primary struggle. Since then, Dvalishvili has defended efficiently in opposition to an elite fighter in Nurmagomedov, whereas O’Malley has sat idly, hoping for this chance. Except O’Malley catches the champ off guard and places him away, I anticipate this to be a typical Dvalishvili struggle. Search for him to shoot steady takedowns and apply stress at a menacing tempo for all 5 rounds. To make the worth extra manageable, you possibly can take Dvalishvili to win by determination.
Girls’s bantamweight championship
“Julianna goes to spend an excessive amount of time attempting to wrestle, and it is not going to work. She’ll find yourself on her again, the place I see her consuming a couple of too many elbows.” — Din Thomas
“I believe Julianna fights loads within the grey areas, punching into clinches and takedowns. I do not assume she will win these conditions and win sufficient of these moments to beat Kayla. I believe it’s going to be aggressive at instances and Julianna will assault Kayla’s fuel tank, however Kayla will win extra moments over the course of 5 rounds.” — Anthony Smith
Betting evaluation
Parker: Underneath 4.5 rounds (+125). Harrison is the most important betting favourite on the cardboard, which is uncommon for the challenger in a title struggle. Though Peña is hard, until Harrisson gasses out to the purpose that she will’t land a takedown, it is exhausting to think about her not ending Peña. As soon as Harrison will get the struggle to the mat, Peña can be in a world of bother, preventing simply to outlive. In some unspecified time in the future, Harrison’s takedowns and high stress can be an excessive amount of.
Parker’s finest bets on the remainder of the cardboard
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Serghei Spivac takes struggle to the mat shortly vs. Derrick Lewis
Serghei Spivac places on a dominating efficiency within the first spherical in opposition to Derrick Lewis.
Males’s bantamweight: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Combine to win (-185). Combine is making his debut in opposition to Bautista, who’s on a seven-fight successful streak. This matchup ought to characteristic loads of enjoyable grappling exchanges. If this struggle stays on the ft, it is a coin toss. Nevertheless, if Combine can put Bautista on his again, he’ll take over. Combine could also be one of the best grappler on the earth at 135 kilos, and I consider his abilities can be on full show.
Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Spivac to win (-150). Spivac is a close to -150 favourite, which is shocking, as I consider he needs to be a -200 and even heavier. On the ft, Spivac is the extra expert striker, and he has a wonderful floor sport that Cortes-Acosta will not have the ability to defend. So long as Spivac stays away from Cortes-Acosta’s energy, he ought to have the ability to shut the space and make the most of his grappling benefit to get the win.