Former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns makes his first Octagon look of 2025 when he squares off with undefeated Michael Morales in the principle occasion at UFC Combat Night time on Saturday (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET primary card, 4 p.m. prelims).
Burns, ESPN’s No. 8-ranked welterweight, enters the battle searching for his first victory since April 2023, when he beat Jorge Masvidal by unanimous resolution at UFC 287. He has misplaced every of his final three fights, together with a unanimous resolution loss to Sean Brady final September.
Morales, unranked by ESPN, has received six straight fights within the UFC. Most not too long ago, he beat Neil Magny by first-round knockout final August.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC primary occasion. ESPN betting knowledgeable Ian Parker provides perception and evaluation on the principle occasion and different intriguing bets he likes on the cardboard.
Editor’s observe: Responses have been edited for brevity and readability.
Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Burns wins: Burns’ recreation plans usually revolve round strain, clinch entries and grappling. Morales has an 8-inch attain benefit, so Gilbert cannot play the vary recreation. He is obtained to shut distance behind feints and massive degree adjustments, and crash the pocket. He may attempt a double jab into the physique lock or a low kick right into a takedown. As soon as he is performed that, his grappling is world-class. Burns has to make Morales respect the takedown makes an attempt and provides him the specter of again publicity or prime strain. That menace alone will gradual Morales’ putting output. If this turns into a unclean, grind-it-out battle previous Spherical 2, it favors Gilbert. He is been in that deep water earlier than, however Morales hasn’t.
How Morales wins: It is about self-discipline, footwork and sticking to the basics. Burns is explosive, however he is a bit linear. Morales can choose him off with straight punches and low kicks. Morales has additionally proven strong steadiness and hips in his takedown protection. If he stuffs Gilbert’s pictures early within the battle, he’ll begin to construct confidence. As soon as Morales will get in rhythm, his output can snowball quick. He has benefits on this battle, however Burns will attempt to drag him into chaotic sequences. Morales cannot get grasping. If he fights with persistence and avoids the bottom, he’ll have the cleaner work.
X issue: Composure in transition. This battle will swing throughout these cut up seconds the place vary collapses. Can Morales maintain his composure when Burns blitzes?
Prediction: Morales to win by late TKO or resolution. However this battle will take a look at his maturity. If he passes, he is for actual.
Betting evaluation
Odds correct as of publication. For essentially the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.
Parker: Morales to win by KO/TKO (-130). Morales, a blue chip prospect who ranked No. 3 on ESPN’s MMA 25 under 25 list in 2023, will get his first UFC primary occasion towards the all the time robust Burns. As a heavy favourite, Morales is predicted to steamroll Burns, and I do not disagree. Burns is at his finest when he takes his opponent down and makes use of his jiu-jitsu to manage the battle. Nonetheless, Morales has impeccable takedown protection and is probably going the higher wrestler. He’s additionally the extra bodily imposing athlete. Search for Morales to efficiently stuff Burns’ takedown makes an attempt and ultimately get the TKO win.
Parker’s finest bets on the remainder of the cardboard
1:02
Julian Erosa makes use of a first-round submission to take a win over Ricardo Ramos
Julian Erosa will get Ricardo Ramos with a guillotine choke within the first spherical to take residence a win by submission.
Middleweight: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Ruziboev to win (-320), underneath 2.5 rounds. Ruziboev is getting the proper matchup towards Stoltzfus to start out a brand new profitable streak within the Octagon. Whereas Stoltzfus is coming off a knockout win of his personal, he’s liable to getting tagged early and sometimes, and towards Ruziboev, that may be a recipe for getting knocked out. With Ruziboev presently sitting as a close to -300 favourite, put him in your parlay. When you’d somewhat take him as a separate play, take him to win and underneath 2.5 rounds to get higher odds.
Featherweight: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
Combat doesn’t go the gap. This has each alternative to be battle of the night time. These two fighters all the time deliver the motion. Erosa has a kill-or-be-killed mentality with an 84% end fee when he wins. In losses, his contests have a 64% end fee. For Costa, 4 of his six UFC appearances have ended by end. This battle will go one among two methods: Both Costa succumbs to the strain and quantity of Erosa, or Costa catches Erosa in a submission following a mistake. Both manner, this battle does not make it to the ultimate bell.
Strawweight: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro
Pennington to win by resolution. Pinheiro is on a three-fight shedding streak, and it is onerous to think about she does not undergo a fourth loss right here. Because the battle goes on, if it does not go in Pinheiro’s favor, she tends to fade. Pennington has an limitless gasoline tank and is the higher fighter anyplace the battle goes. This matchup screams Pennington profitable by resolution.