United States President Donald Trump is scheduled to carry crunch talks with European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland after weeks of intense commerce talks between the 2 sides as Brussels goals to ink a cope with Washington to keep away from a transatlantic commerce conflict.
Von der Leyen, the European Fee president, will meet with the US president at his Turnberry golf membership in Scotland on Sunday. European ministers are hoping the assembly will end in a deal to keep away from the 30 p.c tariffs that Trump has threatened on EU items.
In response to individuals concerned within the talks, European negotiators are aiming for tariffs to be set at 15 p.c. Trump advised reporters on Friday that the bloc “need[s] to make a deal very badly”.
On July 12, Trump threatened to impose the 30 percent tariffs if no settlement may very well be secured by his deadline, which expires on Friday. That will come on prime of the 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and automotive components and 50 percent levies on metal and aluminium already in place.
The EU, Washington’s greatest buying and selling accomplice, has been a frequent goal of Trump’s escalating commerce rhetoric with the president accusing the bloc of “ripping off” the US.
In 2024, EU exports to the US totalled 532 billion euros ($603bn). Prescribed drugs, automotive components and industrial chemical substances had been among the many largest exports, in response to EU information.
Will the Trump-von der Leyen assembly obtain a breakthrough and finish the uncertainty in transatlantic commerce ties?
What are the primary variations between the 2 sides?
The US president advised reporters at Turnberry on Friday that there are “20 sticking factors”.
When requested what they had been, he mentioned: “Nicely, I don’t need to let you know what the sticking factors are.”
On the identical time, he described von der Leyen as a “extremely revered lady” and predicted their assembly on Sunday could be “good”, score the probabilities of a deal as “50-50”.
On the European aspect, it’s understood {that a} rising variety of EU international locations are calling for Brussels to push forward with an already ready retaliatory tariffs package deal on 90 billion euros ($109bn) of US items, together with automotive components and bourbon, if talks break down.
The 2 sides, which traded 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion) in items and providers in 2023, have been negotiating since April 9 when Trump paused what he calls his “reciprocal” tariffs, which he positioned on practically all international locations.
Throughout that point, the US has been charging a flat 10 p.c levy on all EU merchandise in addition to 25 p.c on automobiles and 50 p.c on metal and aluminium.
This month, EU Commerce Commissioner Maros Sefcovic mentioned: “We now have to guard the EU economic system, and we have to go for these rebalancing measures.”
Nonetheless, the bloc is known to be rife with disagreement over commerce insurance policies with the US. Whereas Germany has urged a fast deal to safeguard its industries, different EU members, significantly France, have insisted EU negotiators should not collapse to an asymmetrical deal that favours the US.
On Saturday, von der Leyen spokesperson Paula Pinho mentioned: “Intensive negotiations at technical and political [level] have been ongoing between the EU and US. Leaders will now take inventory and contemplate the scope for a balanced end result that gives stability and predictability for companies and customers on either side of the Atlantic.”
What have the US and EU traded with one another?
In 2024, the US-EU items commerce reached practically $1 trillion, making the EU the one largest buying and selling accomplice of the US.
In complete, the US purchased $235.6bn extra in items than it offered to the 27 international locations that make up the EU. Alternatively, the US earned a surplus on providers commerce with the EU.
The US primarily purchased pharmaceutical merchandise from the EU in addition to mechanical home equipment, automobiles and different nonrailway autos – totalling roughly $606bn.
The US exported gas, pharmaceutical merchandise, equipment and plane to the EU to the tune of $370bn.
Why have they struggled to ink a deal to this point?
Like all of the nations the US runs a commerce deficit with, Trump has lengthy accused the EU of swindling his nation and is decided that Brussels undertake measures to decrease its items commerce surplus with the US.
Washington has repeatedly raised issues over Europe’s value-added tax in addition to its laws on meals exports and IT providers. Trump has argued that these controls act as nontariff commerce obstacles.
Certainly, Sefcovic just lately advised the Monetary Instances that he needs to scale back the US-EU commerce deficit by shopping for extra US gasoline, weapons and farm merchandise.
And whereas European leaders need the bottom tariffs potential, they “additionally need to be revered because the companions that we’re”, French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned on Wednesday.
On July 14, in the meantime, Danish International Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen advised reporters in Brussels that “we must always put together to be prepared to make use of all of the instruments”.
He added: “In order for you peace, it’s important to put together for conflict.” Negotiators in Scotland are hoping it doesn’t come to that.
This month, Oxford Economics, an financial forecasting consultancy, estimated {that a} 30 p.c tariff might push the EU “to the sting of recession”.
Countermeasures from the EU would additionally hit sure US industries onerous. European tariffs might scale back US farmers’ and auto employees’ incomes, that are key Trump constituencies.