Brandon Woodruff made his first begin in almost two years Sunday, and to my shock, he was wonderful.
Woodruff who hadn’t pitched within the majors since September of 2023 after present process a prolonged rehab course of following capsule tear restore surgical procedure in his throwing shoulder, took the mound Sunday towards the Marlins and restricted them to only one run over six extremely environment friendly innings. He allowed simply two hits and did not stroll a single batter, with the lone run approaching a solo house run that wasn’t even significantly well-struck – the 100.2 mph homer off the bat of Heriberto Hernandez was simply the twelfth hardest-hit ball of the sport.
It was additionally considered one of simply 5 hard-hit balls Woodruff surrendered to the Marlins within the begin. They managed simply two batted balls with an anticipated batting common larger than .450 off Woodruff, and, maybe most impressively, he struck out eight in six innings of labor – a really promising signal after he managed only a 20.6% strikeout fee in his minor-league rehab project. And he bought there with 10 swinging strikes on 70 pitches, a really promising 14.3% fee.
So, is Woodruff again? Is he a must-roster participant in all Fantasy codecs? Effectively, I feel these questions have very totally different solutions proper now. To the latter, I am going to say a convincing, “Sure.” Woodruff isn’t any stranger to Fantasy gamers, after all, which is why he was almost 90% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues even earlier than this begin, and after reaching this degree of success in his first begin again, I do assume there’s mainly no purpose to not roster him in any league.
However that does not essentially imply I am satisfied Woodruff is “again.” Any reader of the Fantasy Baseball At the moment E-newsletter will know that I used to be deeply skeptical of Woodruff’s probabilities of being an impression Fantasy participant once more, and whereas this begin makes that prediction look fairly unhealthy, there are nonetheless causes to be skeptical about his possibilities shifting ahead. Primarily, it comes all the way down to the fastball velocity, which was down considerably throughout Woodruff’s rehab project and remained so right here. He averaged 93.1 mph together with his four-seamer Sunday, which was up a tad from his rehab project, however nonetheless 2.7 mph down from the place Woodruff was in 2023.
That is a giant deal, as a result of Woodruff has lengthy been extra reliant on having an elite fastball than simply about any nice pitcher in baseball. In 2023, 71% of Woodruff’s strikeouts got here on account of both his four-seamer or sinker, which is a fee few elite pitchers match; Zack Wheeler throws his two fastballs 58.6% of the time, however solely 51.5% of his strikeouts have come from these two pitches this season, for comparability.
Woodruff’s fastballs have been, after all, nonetheless wonderful Sunday. He generated 4 swinging strikes on his four-seamer on 12 swings, whereas his sinker generated a whopping 11 known as strikes. Between the 2 pitches, Woodruff had a mixed 50% CWS fee together with his two fastballs, which is a reasonably bonkers quantity. If that’s in any respect sustainable, he’ll be dominant.
However I nonetheless have my doubts. Pitchers usually get just a little increase in velocity of their first begin again within the majors, so I would not be shocked if we noticed Woodruff sitting even decrease than this shifting ahead. And, whereas the four-seamer nonetheless has wonderful form, it appears unreasonable to count on it to stay wherever close to as efficient because it was with a 3 mph drop in velocity. Woodruff did generate 4 extra whiffs on his changeup, and had each a brand new sweeper and a brand new, more durable slider, which may give him a path to remaining efficient if (or when) the fastballs cease getting the job achieved. However that is completely theoretical proper now, as he generated only one whiff mixed throughout eight swings towards the slider and sweeper.
It could be laborious for Woodruff’s first begin to have gone any higher than this, and should you have been already stashing him, that appears like a reasonably good name; if no one in your league was stashing Woodruff, I do assume it makes to focus on him when waivers run Sunday night, although I would not essentially make him a high-dollar precedence in FAB, as a consequence of my lingering skepticism.
However he already proved me mistaken on this begin. Who’s to say he will not simply maintain doing that? Here is who else we’re wanting so as to add forward of Week 16 of the Fantasy Baseball season.
Week 16 Waiver Targets
Catchers
Samuel Basallo, Orioles (31%) – The universe is, at this level, seemingly doing all the things it could actually to drive the Orioles to name Basallo up. With Gary Sanchez positioned on the IL this weekend with a knee sprain, the Orioles now have 4 totally different catchers on the IL, with former Rockies castoff Jacob Stallings and Alex Jackson (profession .132/.224/.232 hitter) on the MLB roster in the interim. Basallo, in the meantime, is hitting .282/.402/.577 since June 1 at Triple-A. I perceive not desirous to rush the 20-year-old high prospect, particularly if there may be threat of him not having an on a regular basis spot whereas he’s working to complete the event of his defensive sport – and with the Orioles all however out of the playoff race at this level, possibly dashing him is not the most effective thought. However, Basallo’s bat appears to be like greater than prepared and there is an apparent want right here, so should you’re speaking about stashing minor-leaguers, I feel he is the most effective hitter left down there at this level.
Deep-league goal: Victor Caraini, Astros (9%) – With Yordan Alvarez nonetheless coping with a hand damage, Caratini is getting further alternatives recently and is making the most of them. He has began 11 of the previous 16 video games for the Astros and has 5 homers and 17 RBI in that stretch. Caratini’s observe document and underlying ability set do not essentially give a lot purpose to imagine he’ll stay a distinction maker, however in a deep league, possibly you possibly can squeeze just a little worth out of earlier than he will get chilly once more.
First Base
Nate Lowe, Nationals (50%) – Lowe hasn’t been excellent this season, however he’s nonetheless on tempo for near 100 RBI. That is a bit stunning, however he is at all times been a very good supply of RBI and he is sizzling proper now, with 18 over his previous 25 video games with a .266/.333/.511 line in that stretch.
Deep-league goal: Masataka Yoshida*, Red Sox (10%) – Be aware the asterisk: Yoshida is definitely simply DH eligible proper now, and appears extra prone to play within the outfield than at first base when he is cleared from the IL. However I haven’t got a “DH-only” spot right here, so we’ll throw Yoshida right here now that he is on the verge of getting back from offseason shoulder surgical procedure. He’s anticipated to be activated sooner or later throughout the group’s homestand starting Monday, and whereas there are some issues about how a lot he’ll play, there are indicators that the Purple Sox are open to trying him at first base, so he may find yourself becoming right here. Yoshida is not a distinction maker, however he makes a number of contact, has a little bit of pop, and needs to be productive when within the lineup – he is a profession .285/.343/.433 hitter within the majors.
Second base
Tyler Freeman, Rockies (32%) – It is wanting just like the Rockies gained that Nolan Jones commerce pretty handily. Freeman’s elite contact abilities have been an ideal match for Coors Discipline, however even with out Coors’ BABIP-inflating properties, Freeman can be having fun with a breakout season, as indicated by his .319 anticipated batting common. Freeman would not have Jacob Wilson‘s pedigree, however he is doing a satisfactory impersonation of him this season, solely with the potential for 30-plus steals and a number of positional flexibility. I am not saying Freeman is kind of that good, however I do assume he must be mainly universally rostered proper now.
Deep-league goal: Zack Gelof, Athletics (37%) – Gelof was a significant disappointment final season as he didn’t construct on his promising rookie season and noticed the holes in his swing absolutely magnified by major-league pitchers. And I do not actually count on an excessive amount of to be totally different this time round. However let’s not neglect that he had 17 homers and 25 steals final season, so it is not like he was a complete waste for Fantasy. And now he is taking part in in a a lot better house park for energy, making a 20-20 tempo look pretty lifelike. You may must abdomen a foul batting common, however Gelof needs to be a reasonably helpful Fantasy possibility should you can.
Third base
Royce Lewis, Twins (65%) – Perhaps after all of the accidents, Lewis simply is not the identical man anymore. Perhaps he cannot be. Even at 26 years outdated, it will be comprehensible. Besides, here is the factor: I do not assume the proof factors that means. In any respect. Lewis is hitting simply .212/.285/.305 after a depressing second half in 2024, so that you may be shocked to listen to that. However even amid his struggles this season, Lewis has only a 14% strikeout fee and a .340 anticipated wOBA for the season, the second-best of his profession. Lewis has been not only a must-start participant however a authentic distinction maker in Fantasy previously, and I nonetheless assume he may be. I am going to add him wherever he is obtainable, simply in case that guess is true.
Deep-league goal: Nolan Gorman, Cardinals (14%) – The one factor we have at all times recognized about Gorman is that he has plus energy. The issue has at all times been about making contact. Final season, he struck out almost 40% of the time, which is untenable for anybody. This season? He is all the way down to under a 30% strikeout fee and we’re seeing a return to Fantasy relevance because of this. Gorman has seven homers because the begin of June after going deep Saturday, and he is even hitting .250 in that span – not good, however playable! He is a tremendous goal should you want some low-cost pop.
Shortstop
Otto Lopez, Marlins (60%) – Lopez has been fairly good for some time now. He hit .301/.365/.447 within the month of June, and his underlying high quality of contact simply retains getting higher – over his previous 100 plate appearances Lopez has a .380 xwOBA, a reasonably exceptional quantity. He ought to a minimum of proceed to be a very good supply of batting common, with just a little little bit of pop and a few velocity, and if the underlying numbers stay this robust, even that may be promoting him brief. And, given his good plate self-discipline and multi-eligibility, Lopez may be a viable possibility in H2H factors leagues, too.
Deep-league goal: Colson Montgomery, White Sox (18%) – Primarily based on the totality of his minor-league observe document since being a first-round decide in 2021, there is not a ton to get enthusiastic about with Montgomery. He’s a profession .246 hitter with simply 19 homers and 6 steals per-150 video games. And his observe document is even uglier in Triple-A. However he did get sizzling proper earlier than the White Sox promoted him, going 11 for 25 with 4 homers in his remaining six video games, after which he opened his MLB profession going 5 for 10 with a pair of walks and strikeouts in his first three video games. Minor-league manufacturing would not at all times translate to the majors, and possibly Montgomery may be an instance of a participant exceeding what he managed within the minors.
Outfield
Addison Barger, Blue Jays (67%) – If there’s any purpose to be skeptical about Barger, it simply comes all the way down to taking part in time. At the same time as he has been considered one of their greatest hitters, Barger has began simply three of the previous eight video games towards lefties, and with the Blue Jays in first place and peaking as one of many hottest groups in baseball, it is laborious to argue with the method. However Barger simply continues to do all the things he can to drive his means into the lineup, recently going 8 for 18 with a few homers in his first 5 July video games. With the underlying information to again it up, Barger appears to be like like a legitimately excellent hitter, and I am simply going to trip it till he flames out, if it ever occurs.
Tyler O’Neill, Orioles (43%) – O’Neill is again from his shoulder damage and already went deep on Saturday, a very good signal, given the damage. He hasn’t achieved a lot of be aware but this season, however O’Neill has at all times been a streaky hitter, so judging him by a gold stretch would not actually make a lot sense. Keep in mind, he hit 31 homers in simply 113 video games final season, so if he does something like that within the second half, you are going to be glad he is round and in your group.
Chandler Simpson, Rays (57%) – I can not say I’ve watched intently sufficient to know the way Simpson’s protection has regarded, however the Rays are throwing him on the market on a regular basis in heart discipline, in order that they must be fairly pleased with it. That is a very good signal, as a result of at this level, the protection is admittedly the one query I’ve about Simpson, who’s hitting .359 with six runs and 5 steals in 11 video games since coming back from the minors. If the Rays belief Simpson’s protection, then I feel he is in all probability just about a must-roster participant in Fantasy at this level.
Isaac Collins, Brewers (12%) – The Brewers simply love discovering guys like this. Collins is a smaller dude who would not have a lot pop, however he hits the ball within the air to the pull aspect, has a good strategy on the plate, and is an aggressive baserunner regardless of solely middling athleticism. He is hitting .307/.418/.533 because the begin of June whereas beginning round two-thirds of the group’s video games. In deeper classes leagues, that is actually sufficient to matter.
Colby Thomas, Athletics (10%) – Thomas needs to be left for actually deep leagues proper now, as a result of it simply is not clear the place he’ll play for the Athletics proper now. However they in all probability want to seek out some room for the 24-year-old someplace, as a result of he is achieved about all he can to show himself within the minors, hitting .285/.355/.550 at Triple-A with comparable numbers all through his profession. It is an attention-grabbing ability set, however he is relegated to a nook spot, and the A’s have already got too many nook/DH varieties. He’ll must get sizzling and see another person earn a demotion, but when that occurs, Thomas could possibly be a legitimately helpful major-league hitter.
Beginning pitcher
Emmett Sheehan, Dodgers (57%) – Sheehan returned from the minors Sunday and regarded wonderful towards the Astros, permitting one run over 5 innings. He solely struck out 4, however generated 14 swinging strikes on 54 swings, so the stuff nonetheless regarded dynamic. That Sheehan solely threw 80 pitches is type of disappointing, since he was despatched to Triple-A explicitly to be stretched out. It looks like the Dodgers may proceed to restrict his workload, which is irritating, however is not a deal breaker. Sheehan has regarded overwhelming more often than not since getting back from Tommy John surgical procedure, and now that he is again within the bigs, he must be universally rostered.
Edward Cabrera, Marlins (66%) – The longer this goes on, the extra critically we now have to take it. I went deep on Cabrera’s improved efficiency earlier final week, and it is principally tied to considerably improved management, which we noticed on show but once more Sunday towards the Brewers, as Cabrera walked none over seven two-run innings. Cabrera hasn’t walked greater than three in a begin all season (he did it six instances in 20 begins final season), and has walked simply 2.9 per 9 innings because the begin of Could with a 2.11 ERA in that span. At this level, Cabrera may simply have to be universally rostered, too.
Joe Boyle, Rays (32%) – The Rays used an opener with Boyle Sunday in his return to the majors, and he regarded phenomenal. Getting into within the third after an abbreviated (by design) begin from Drew Rasmussen, Boyle allowed only one unearned run over 5 innings of labor, whereas hanging out seven, strolling one, and permitting simply two hits to the Twins. He generated 15 swinging strikes on his 90 pitches and did a very good job throwing strikes, which is the principle factor we at all times have to fret about with Boyle. He is had adequate management all season at Triple-A, and if he can maintain the stroll fee to round common, I feel the stuff will play. Hopefully the Rays are calling Boyle up for good, although it is not clear what his function might be – MLB.com indicated after Sunday’s sport he may continue to piggyback with Rasmussen as a option to handle his workload, which raises some questions on how precious Rasmussen might be within the second half of the season. For now, I am tremendous including Boyle in most leagues for the upside alone.
Trevor Rogers, Orioles (41%) – Regardless of one other wonderful begin Sunday towards the Braves, I can not fairly get there with Rogers. He is all the way down to a 1.57 ERA in 5 begins after he shut the Braves out over 6.2 innings of labor, and I can not fairly make sense of how he is making it work. His fastball has been efficient, however it’s not almost the pitch it was again in 2021, so that does not appear sustainable – particularly as his velocity was down one other tick Sunday to 92.4 mph. He is getting it achieved proper now, however I feel in the long term, he’ll wind up as only a streamer. The excellent news is, his final begin earlier than the All-Star break is an exploitable matchup towards the Marlins, so I actually do not thoughts streaming him for that.
Cam Schlittler, Yankees (22%) – With Clarke Schmidt wanting like he is going to have Tommy John surgery, the Yankees immediately discover themselves with a gap of their rotation. The Yankees are going to advertise a beginning pitcher this week, and Schlittler appears to be like like the most suitable choice at this level. The group’s No. 10 prospect per MLB.com Pipeline is having fun with a breakout season, pitching his option to Triple-A with a 2.82 ERA and 11.6 Ok/9 throughout the highest two ranges of the minors. Fangraphs.com not too long ago did a pleasant scouting report on Schlittler amid his breakout season, and his fastball appears to be like prefer it could possibly be an actual weapon even towards major-league hitters. That is a very good start line, and Schlittler could possibly be value stashing even earlier than he’s promoted, a minimum of in deeper leagues.
Reduction pitcher
Daniel Palencia, Cubs (65%) – Here is how good Palencia has been: He has a 1.74 ERA because the begin of June regardless of being bedeviled by a .360 BABIP. His strikeout fee is as much as 29.5% in that span and his command has been wonderful, and at this level, I simply do not assume there’s a lot threat of him shedding this job. He needs to be universally rostered.
Ronny Henriquez, Marlins (30%) – Unexpectedly, “Who’s the Marlins nearer?” truly appears to be like like a query Fantasy baseball gamers must care about. And it appears to be like, for now, like the reply is, certainly, Henriquez. The Marlins have been inconsistent with their nearer function this season, however Henriquez does have three of the previous 4 saves for the group, and Calvin Faucher, his main competitors for the function, would not have one since June 24. The subsequent one very properly may go Faucher’s means, however it appears to be like like they’re leaning in Henriquez’s course. For now.