When Abdullah Ocalan stated his Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration, or PKK, ought to lay down its arms and disband after greater than 4 many years of battle with the Turkish state and tens of hundreds of deaths, there was an instantaneous look throughout the border to Syria.
Syria’s northeast is essentially managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led army power Turkiye has repeatedly fought towards over the previous decade.
The SDF is led by the Folks’s Safety Items (YPG), which Turkiye views as a “terrorist” group and the Syrian department of the PKK. The US, nevertheless, has backed the YPG in Syria to battle towards ISIL (ISIS).
Because the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December, the SDF has been negotiating with the brand new Turkish-allied authorities in Damascus over what its future function in a newly unified Syria and as a army power might be and what sort of governance will lengthen to the northeast of the nation.
No laying down of arms
The elimination of the PKK from the equation will probably facilitate the SDF’s integration with Damascus, analysts informed Al Jazeera.
“For the SDF, it makes it a lot simpler to speak with the federal government in Damascus and likewise to de-escalate their relations with Turkey,” stated Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an analyst of Kurdish politics based mostly in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish area of northern Iraq.
Whereas the SDF rejects Turkiye’s assertions that it’s the Syrian arm of the PKK, analysts stated the teams have robust hyperlinks.
Whereas the PKK’s announcement that it might heed Ocalan’s name and disarm was welcomed by SDF chief Mazloum Abdi, he stated his group wouldn’t disarm and Ocalan’s choice didn’t lengthen to Syria.
However this might give the group additional incentives to deliver its combating power and governing construction – referred to as the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) – below the umbrella of the brand new authorities in Damascus.
When reached for touch upon Monday, an AANES spokesperson informed Al Jazeera: “The autonomous administration is just not involved with the interior affairs of different international locations.”
The SDF has clashed with Turkish-backed Syrian factions, together with within the rapid days after the autumn of al-Assad’s regime, and sustained assaults from Turkiye’s air power.
In December, the US negotiated a ceasefire between the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, which has since been integrated into Syria’s new armed forces.
Abdi has been in discussions with the brand new Syrian authorities, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, over how greatest to combine the SDF into the post-Baathist Celebration safety forces and govern Syria’s northeast.
Elevated stress to barter
The SDF has engaged within the talks with the stress of an impending US troop withdrawal from northeast Syria.
And not using a US presence and help, the SDF has feared it is perhaps weak to assaults from Turkiye or Turkish-backed factions in Syria.
However ought to the PKK’s choice to disarm deliver a sense of safety to Turkiye alongside its border with Syria, analysts stated the relations between the SDF and Turkiye would additionally probably enhance.
“We all know that Turkey’s hardline stance in the direction of the SDF was very a lot linked to issues over the PKK and never a lot concerning the SDF being Kurdish-dominated,” Thomas Pierret, a Syria specialist and senior researcher on the Institute of Analysis and Examine on the Arab and Islamic Worlds, informed Al Jazeera.
That is evident by Turkiye’s relations with Masoud Barzani and his Kurdish Democratic Celebration in northern Iraq’s Kurdish area, Pierret stated.
After all, this new actuality “doesn’t imply will probably be simple”, in accordance with Pierret. Underneath the settlement between Turkiye and the PKK, some fighters might be relocated to third countries – primarily despatched into exile. There’s additionally the chance some fighters could determine to make their solution to northeast Syria, by which case, Pierret stated, Turkiye may see the SDF as a haven for PKK fighters.
So Turkiye will maintain a detailed eye on the SDF in Syria and the SDF’s negotiations with Damascus.
Prior to now, the Turkish army has launched drones, fired artillery and carried out air strikes towards Kurdish fighters, together with the SDF. And analysts stated army choices should still be on the desk going ahead.
“For now, they appear to be letting negotiations take their course,” Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide with a give attention to Syria, informed Al Jazeera. “And that’s most likely associated each to occasions in Syria but in addition to the PKK course of.”
Past Syria
The PKK’s associates and allies are unfold throughout areas of the Center East the place Kurds dwell.
Traditionally, the PKK has operated in Turkiye in addition to northern Iraq. And their allies have operated in locations the place Kurds dwell in Syria and Iran. Their struggles have usually opposed the nationwide authorities in these locations or sought self-determination or federalism.
One instance is the Kurdistan Free Life Celebration, or PJAK, in Iran, which says its purpose is to declare an autonomous Kurdish area in Iran.
“It’s unclear what is going to occur with the … PJAK as a result of additionally they have a lot of Iranian Kurdish fighters contained in the PKK,” van Wildenburg stated.
“It’s doable that they are going to proceed as a political occasion and never as an armed group as a result of they’re already not doing a lot combating towards the Iranian state anyway.”
Analysts agree it’s unclear whether or not the PKK’s allies will comply with Ocalan’s lead and lay down their arms or, as is the case with the SDF in Syria, if they are going to view their very own struggles as impartial and make selections on their very own.
