On the floor, it was a routine closed-door assembly between Bangladesh’s interim chief and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and the chiefs of the nation’s three armed forces, to debate legislation and order.
However the Could 20 assembly got here amid what a number of officers accustomed to the inner workings of the federal government described to Al Jazeera as an intensifying energy wrestle in Dhaka. Portrayed in each social and mainstream media in Bangladesh as a “chilly battle” between the armed forces and the interim administration, these tensions now threaten the way forward for Yunus’s function, 9 months after he took cost following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League.
Hasina fled to India in August 2024 amid a mass uprising towards her 15-year-long rule, throughout which she was accused of orchestrating extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.
We unpack the cell phone tumult in Bangladesh, and what it means for the nation’s fledgling efforts to return to electoral democracy.
Why are tensions mounting between the army and the federal government?
The Bangladesh Military has remained deployed since July 2024, following the mass protests that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Their continued presence was necessitated by the collapse of civilian legislation enforcement through the upheaval, together with a nationwide police strike that left many stations deserted and public order in disarray.
Though the police resumed operations in mid-August, the military’s presence has been maintained as a part of a civil-military consensus, due to unrest within the nation.
On Wednesday, Bangladesh’s military chief, Common Waker-Uz-Zaman, publicly urged that nationwide elections be held by December this yr, warning that extended deployment of the military for civil duties may compromise the nation’s defences.
In response to a report by The Day by day Star, Common Waker advised a high-level gathering at Dhaka Cantonment, “Bangladesh wants political stability. That is solely attainable via an elected authorities, not by unelected decision-makers.” The feedback got here throughout a uncommon handle during which he delivered a 30-minute speech, adopted by greater than an hour of questions and solutions. Officers from throughout the nation and at Bangladeshi UN missions reportedly joined the occasion, each bodily and nearly, in full fight uniform – a present of unity and resolve.
“The military is supposed for defending the nation, not for policing … We should return to barracks after elections,” Waker was quoted in The Day by day Star as saying.
His remarks point out a distinction of opinion with the Yunus administration’s said intention of holding elections no sooner than mid-2026, to permit time for political and electoral reforms first, in an effort to guarantee a good election.
In response to native media experiences, Waker can also be strongly against key initiatives being thought of by the interim authorities. On a proposed humanitarian hall into Myanmar’s Rakhine State, he reportedly mentioned: “There can be no hall. The sovereignty of Bangladesh just isn’t negotiable.” He warned that any such transfer may drag Bangladesh right into a harmful proxy battle. “Solely a political authorities elected by the individuals could make such choices,” he mentioned, in response to the paper.
The military chief additionally voiced concern about making different choices with out an electoral mandate – together with the potential overseas administration of Chattogram Port, Bangladesh’s most important seaport, and the launch of Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite tv for pc web service – which he mentioned may compromise nationwide safety. “The military won’t permit anybody to compromise our sovereignty,” The Day by day Star quoted him as saying.
His remarks got here amid widespread hypothesis – nonetheless unaddressed by both the army or the federal government – that the Yunus administration had tried to take away Common Waker from his publish final week. Although unconfirmed, the hearsay has dominated public discourse and prompted questions on civil-military relations through the transitional interval.
The timing, due to this fact, of Common Waker’s assertive public assertion – and its emphasis on constitutional course of and nationwide sovereignty – is broadly considered as a sign of rising unease throughout the army over the interim authorities’s increasing civilian initiatives, in response to analysts.
Are there tensions with political events as effectively?
Sure. Since its formation on August 8 final yr, the interim authorities has confronted escalating strain from completely different sides. Whereas the principle opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion (BNP) insists that nationwide elections should be held by December, the Nationwide Citizen Occasion (NCP) – a student-led occasion fashioned earlier this yr – and several other different political teams argue that sweeping reforms and the prosecution of former Awami League (AL) leaders for killings ensuing from the brutal crackdown on student-led protests final yr should precede any election.
Bangladesh’s largest political occasion, the BNP, has launched a wave of protests over different calls for as effectively, together with that its candidate, who misplaced an allegedly rigged mayoral election in Dhaka on February 1, 2020, underneath the Awami League regime, be reinstated as mayor.
On Thursday, the BNP held a information convention demanding an election by the top of the yr, in addition to the resignation of two scholar advisers and the nationwide safety adviser. The occasion warned that with out these steps, continued cooperation with the Yunus-led administration would turn into untenable.
On Saturday, Yunus is anticipated to fulfill with each the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), the biggest Islamic political occasion in Bangladesh.
Is Yunus making ready to resign?
Amid this rising turbulence, hypothesis has intensified that Yunus could also be making ready to resign. Native media started reporting that he had indicated that he meant to step down and handle the nation in a televised assertion, throughout a cupboard assembly on Thursday afternoon, following widespread social media chatter.
That night, Nahid Islam – a scholar chief from the July rebellion towards the earlier authorities and now head of the newly fashioned Nationwide Citizen Occasion (NCP) – met Yunus together with two scholar advisers to make an attraction for him to remain on.
After the assembly, Nahid confirmed to BBC Bangla that Yunus was severely contemplating stepping down.
By Friday night (13:00 GMT), sources throughout the interim administration advised Al Jazeera that Yunus was nonetheless weighing his choices.
Nevertheless, two authorities sources mentioned Yunus is prone to convene an emergency cupboard assembly on Saturday, throughout which he’s anticipated to debate the subsequent plan of action. One of many sources confirmed that Yunus’s resignation stays a risk.
Why would possibly Yunus need to resign?
Yunus is considering resigning due to intensifying political strain, in response to native media experiences.
Two advisers quoted within the Samakal newspaper mentioned Yunus advised cupboard members on Thursday that the political events and different authorities establishments had didn’t ship on guarantees to cooperate with the transitional authorities to implement state reforms and a peaceable democratic transition because the fall of Hasina’s authorities final yr.
It had turn into unattainable to hold out his tasks, he was reported as saying. Strain can also be mounting to carry an election. “The prospect of a good election within the present state of affairs is slim,” he mentioned. He was involved any election can be interfered with or rigged and he didn’t need to must take accountability for it.
In a while Thursday night, Yunus met Data Adviser Mahfuj Alam, Native Authorities Adviser Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain and NCP convenor Nahid Islam at his official residence, the Jamuna State Visitor Home in Dhaka.
Chatting with BBC Bangla afterwards, Nahid confirmed Yunus was contemplating resigning and quoted him as saying he felt “held hostage” by protests and political gridlock.
“I can not work like this if you happen to, all of the political events, can not attain a typical floor,” Nahid quoted Yunus as saying. He urged the interim chief to “stay robust”, stressing the hopes the general public had pinned on him after the July rebellion that ousted the Awami League authorities.
In the meantime, Yunus’s formidable reform agenda is reportedly faltering, with analysts noting that key arms of the state – together with the police and civil forms – are more and more slipping past the interim authorities’s management.
One putting instance amongst many, they are saying, is a proposal to separate the Nationwide Board of Income (NBR), the nation’s authority for tax administration, overseeing the gathering of earnings tax, value-added tax (VAT) and customs duties, into two separate entities – a transfer that the federal government says is aimed toward enhancing effectivity and the integrity of Bangladesh’s tax system. This has been met with robust resistance from senior officers of the NBR over fears that skilled income officers can be sidelined.
What does the BNP need?
Chatting with Al Jazeera, BNP chief Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury mentioned his occasion doesn’t need Yunus to resign. “No one requested for his resignation, and we don’t need him to take action,” he said.
“The individuals are ready to forged their vote and produce again democracy. They’ve been disadvantaged of this for almost twenty years,” mentioned Khasru. “We anticipate him to go for a free and honest election and peacefully hand over energy. That’s how he got here in.”
He questioned the delay in setting an election timeline. “What’s the anticipate? That is one thing [about which] a really robust dialog is happening within the nation.”
Khasru mentioned the BNP needs the administration to maneuver into caretaker mode – with a leaner cupboard and the removing of some controversial figures, significantly these with political ambitions or affiliations. “They’ve already floated a political occasion,” he mentioned, referring to the scholar representatives. “Others made partisan statements. These ought to go if you happen to’re severe a couple of credible election.”
He dismissed any contradiction between reforms and elections, saying each may transfer ahead concurrently. “The place there may be consensus, reforms could be accomplished inside weeks.”
Khasru additionally voiced confidence within the Election Fee and the function of the military in guaranteeing a good vote. “This isn’t the period of Sheikh Hasina,” he remarked, suggesting a extra conducive political setting for elections.
On the query of attempting former Awami League leaders, he mentioned judicial processes may proceed in parallel. “The judiciary should do its job – the elected authorities will proceed if extra is required.”
“BNP suffered essentially the most underneath the earlier regime,” he added. “The trials are a nationwide consensus.”
BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed echoed this sentiment in a TV interview on Friday: “If Yunus is personally unable to hold out his duties, the state will discover another.” However he added: “As a globally revered determine, we hope he’ll perceive the state of affairs and announce an election roadmap by December.”
What do different political events need?
NCP’s Senior Joint Convenor Ariful Islam Adeeb rejected the BNP’s narrative, telling Al Jazeera: “All events had been meant to assist the interim authorities after the July rebellion, however the BNP caught to previous ways based mostly on muscle energy – that’s the basis of the disaster.”
He urged unity, saying: “BNP and all different events should come collectively for the nationwide curiosity.”
In the meantime, demonstrations and behind-the-scenes conferences continued throughout Dhaka. On Thursday night, prime leaders of 5 political events, together with the NCP, attended an emergency assembly on the headquarters of one other Islamic political occasion, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), known as by its chief Mufti Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim.
They urged all “anti-fascist forces” to unite, defend nationwide sovereignty, and assist a reputable election underneath Yunus after key reforms. A number of of those events, together with BJI, argue that elections should come after key reforms – akin to adopting a proportional voting system and guaranteeing accountability for previous abuses – to stop any repeat of previous authoritarian practices. They consider holding elections with out these adjustments would undermine public belief and threat one other disaster.
BJI chief Shafiqur Rahman joined the IAB assembly through telephone and endorsed the decision. On Thursday, he urged Yunus to convene an all-party dialogue to resolve the disaster.
Then, on Friday night time, BJI’s Shafiqur Rahman requested a gathering with Yunus, proposing to convene at 12:00 GMT (6pm native time) on Saturday.
Chatting with Al Jazeera on Friday night time, NCP Joint Convenor Sarwar Tushar mentioned: “Regardless of the rumours, we consider Dr Muhammad Yunus is dedicated to his historic accountability.
“There may be large expectation – each from the worldwide neighborhood and the individuals,” he added.
Whereas acknowledging political divisions, Tushar mentioned: “If everybody strikes past occasion agendas and focuses on a nationwide agenda, the disaster could be resolved via dialogue.”
What can we anticipate subsequent?
Political analyst Rezaul Karim Rony advised Al Jazeera that discuss of Yunus’s resignation might replicate rising frustration over the dearth of unity throughout the transitional setup. “The unity that had fashioned across the post-uprising interim authorities seems to be weakening attributable to vested pursuits,” he mentioned. “The resignation discuss is perhaps a sign underscoring the necessity to rebuild that unity.”
Rony instructed that sure authorities appointments might have alienated political events, elevating questions on whether or not some actors have agendas past the official reform mandate. “This may very well be one motive why the federal government is struggling to realize broad political cooperation and performance successfully,” he famous.
Rony added: “At this level, advocating for elections might [make the administration] seem politically aligned with the BNP. However in the long run, it needs to be as much as the individuals to determine who they need to lead.”
NCP’s Nahid Islam, nevertheless, sees in any other case.
He warned in a Fb publish on Friday night time: “There’s a conspiracy to sabotage the democratic transition and stage one other 1/11-style association.”
The time period “1/11” refers to January 11, 2007, when the military-backed caretaker authorities took management in Bangladesh amid political chaos and dominated for 2 years, suspending democratic processes.
“Bangladesh has repeatedly been divided, nationwide unity destroyed, to maintain the nation weak,” Nahid wrote.
Urging Yunus to remain in workplace and ship on guarantees of reform, justice and voting rights, he mentioned, “Dr Yunus should resolve all political crises whereas in workplace.”
He additionally outlined NCP’s calls for: a well timed July declaration, elections throughout the introduced timeframe (Yunus has repeatedly promised that the election can be held between December 2025 to July 2026), a July Constitution with core reforms earlier than polls, seen justice for the July killings, and a roadmap for a brand new structure via simultaneous elections to a Constituent Meeting and legislature.
In the meantime, public anxiousness is rising. On Friday, the Bangladesh Military issued a Fb alert debunking a faux media launch circulated a day earlier, which falsely used the army’s emblem in what it described as “an obvious try to sow confusion and create rifts” between the armed forces and the general public. “Don’t consider rumours. Don’t be misled,” the assertion warned.
Because the weekend approaches, all eyes are on Muhammad Yunus – and whether or not he’ll resign, stand agency, or forge a brand new consensus to guide the nation via its second transition since final yr’s dramatic rebellion.