High United States diplomatic negotiator Steve Witkoff visited Moscow on Wednesday in a last-ditch push to influence Russian President Vladimir Putin to comply with a ceasefire with Ukraine earlier than an August 8 deadline set by President Donald Trump.
After Witkoff’s assembly with Putin, the White Home stated that Russia had sought a gathering with Trump. The US president, the White Home stated, was open to meeting both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump, who throughout his re-election marketing campaign had promised he would have the ability to finish the Russia-Ukraine battle in 24 hours if he got here to energy, has to date failed to mediate a truce regardless of months of hectic diplomacy, direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv, and cellphone calls with Putin.
More and more frustrated by Putin’s unwillingness to comply with a pause in combating with out imposing situations unacceptable to Ukraine or the West, Trump has threatened a brand new wave of economic measures punishing Russia if it doesn’t settle for a ceasefire.
Since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies, together with the UK and the European Union, have imposed greater than 21,000 sanctions on Russia’s financial system.
The brand new tariffs Trump has threatened are not like any of these earlier sanctions, nonetheless. They aim Russia by hitting out in opposition to its buying and selling companions, within the hope that they may cease shopping for from or promoting to Moscow.
However these secondary tariffs additionally carry dangers for the US and its allies.
What are the secondary tariffs Trump is threatening?
In mid-July, as peace talks stalled regardless of Trump’s efforts, the US president threatened Russia with one hundred pc secondary tariffs if it didn’t work in direction of a ceasefire. He gave the Kremlin a 50-day deadline to cooperate.
After Moscow steered that it wouldn’t bow to US stress, Trump moved up the deadline, which now expires on August 8. It’s unclear if Trump’s openness to talks with Putin and Zelenskyy following Witkoff’s Moscow go to has modified that deadline.
On Wednesday, Trump doubled the tariff price on Indian imports from 25 p.c – which he had introduced in late July – to 50 p.c, as punishment for New Delhi’s refusal to cease shopping for Russian oil. That makes India the nation going through the best US tariffs at current – together with Brazil.
If Trump’s secondary tariffs go into impact, items that the US imports from nations nonetheless buying and selling with Russia would face duties of one hundred pc on prime of the tariffs Trump has already imposed on these nations.
That will at the least double the value of these merchandise, making them much less aggressive within the US market.
The thought behind these tariffs is to influence Russia’s buying and selling companions to cease shopping for and promoting with the nation, isolating its financial system and depriving it of income it earns from exports, particularly from vitality.
Regardless of the sanctions it already faces, Russia has persistently earned greater than 500 million euros ($580m) a day from vitality exports since 2022. That will probably be disrupted if nations cease shopping for all oil and fuel from Russia.
Which nations might Trump’s secondary tariffs hit?
The nations most affected by such secondary tariffs can be:
- China: Russia’s most vital ally, China is by far the biggest shopper of its northern neighbour’s exports. In 2023, China purchased nearly a 3rd of all Russian exports. It additionally purchased nearly half of Russia’s oil exports.
- India: An previous good friend, India has been shopping for up massive volumes of Russian crude since 2022, together with nearly 40 p.c of Russia’s complete oil exports in 2023. That 12 months, 17 p.c of Russia’s total exports went to India. Trump had already imposed a 25 p.c tariff on Indian items. On Wednesday, he doubled that price as punishment for India’s continued oil purchases from Russia.
- Turkiye: The third-largest purchaser of Russian vitality, 8 p.c of Russia’s exports in 2023 went to Turkiye. It’s a NATO ally of the US.
Turkiye isn’t the one ally that could possibly be hit if Trump actually targets all those that commerce with Russia.
Might US allies be hit?
Pushing again in opposition to Western threats over its ties with Russia, India has pointed to the EU’s personal commerce with Moscow. And whereas that commerce has plummeted since 2022, it’s nonetheless substantial.
In keeping with the EU, its complete commerce with Russia was price 67.5 billion euros ($77.9bn) in 2024. India’s complete commerce with Russia in 2024-25, in contrast, was worth $68.7bn.
The bloc nonetheless depends closely on Russia for its liquefied pure fuel (LNG) provides. Actually, its import of Russian LNG has been rising: In 2024, EU imports of Russian LNG have been 9 p.c increased than the 12 months earlier than.
Europe has already been hit with a 15 p.c tariff from Trump. Will Trump punish his closest supporters to stress Russia to finish the battle?
Might the US face dangers, too?
It isn’t simply allies – secondary tariffs on those that commerce with Russia carry dangers for the US itself, too.
Trump’s crew is at the moment engaged on a commerce take care of China, and people talks have led to a pause in a tariff battle between the world’s two largest economies.
That detente would break down if Trump imposes one hundred pc tariffs on Chinese language items just because Beijing additionally trades with Russia.
China, Europe and India are all main suppliers of products to the US: If the price of these merchandise – from garments to lamps to iPhones – doubles, American shoppers will really feel the pinch.
The US additionally buys chemical substances, together with uranium hexafluoride – utilized in uranium enrichment – from Russia.
Will India and China cease shopping for Russian vitality?
That appears unlikely. China continues to purchase oil from Iran, regardless of US sanctions – and Russia is arguably its closest strategic accomplice.
India has additionally proven no signal of loosening its ties with Russia. Witkoff isn’t the one international envoy visiting Moscow for the time being. India’s nationwide safety adviser, Ajit Doval, can also be within the Russian capital. India’s international minister, S Jaishankar, is predicted to go to Russia later this month, and India has introduced that it intends to host Putin later this 12 months.
On Wednesday, India described Trump’s 50 p.c tariff as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, including that its buy of Russian oil was rooted in its want for vitality safety for its 1.4 billion folks.