Largest surprises, disappointments of the 2025 WNBA season

The 2025 WNBA season continues to convey plot twists. From enlargement groups beating expectations to latest dynasties struggling to interrupt .500 to this 12 months’s rookies excelling to final 12 months’s marquee rookie rivalries lacking in motion, this season has defied simple narratives and storylines — that is a part of what has made this such an intriguing marketing campaign.

What we thought we knew … properly, it seems we did not.

With that in thoughts, let’s unpack the 4 greatest surprises — in addition to the three greatest disappointments — of the season, spinning ahead to what the long run may maintain in every case.

Largest surprises

Success of the enlargement Valkyries

It wasn’t clear how excessive the ceiling can be for the brand new Golden State Valkyries. The WNBA had not added an enlargement group to its ranks since 2008, when the Atlanta Dream went simply 4-30 of their debut season. And the six earlier enlargement golf equipment went a mixed 47-149 (.240), price 10.6 wins in a contemporary 44-game WNBA season.

After all, the league’s expertise pool has deepened lately, and the Valkyries had constructed their roster round some fascinating gamers. Nonetheless, ESPN BET set their preseason win whole at solely 8.5, the bottom within the league.

It is truthful to say Golden State has blown previous these expectations, profitable 9 of its first 16 video games earlier than a latest slowdown. Guard Tiffany Hayes has been as dependable as anticipated, however it’s actually been the breakouts of Kayla Thornton, Veronica Burton, Temi Fagbenle and Monique Billings, amongst others, who drove the Valkyries previous their projections — and proceed to present them a shot on the playoffs. Based on a forecast based on Elo ratings, Golden State is monitoring to complete the season with 20.8 wins, greater than double its preseason win whole.

What’s subsequent: Sadly, Thornton was injured in mid-July and underwent season-ending knee surgical procedure, an enormous blow to Golden State’s stunning marketing campaign. The Valkyries wanted her scoring and particularly her protection, the place they have been one of many league’s higher groups. Now there’s much more stress on Burton — who’s having a powerful all-around season with a plus-3.1 estimated RAPTOR score — and the remaining to maintain the playoff push going.

Rookie guards are standing out

The long-standing rule of predicting WNBA rookies is to present forwards, and particularly facilities, the advantage of the doubt however fear about guards’ means to seamlessly transition into the professional ranks. We’ve got lengthy seen bigs comparable to Candace Parker, Breanna Stewart, Tina Charles, A’ja Wilson, Lauren Jackson and, extra just lately, Aliyah Boston hit the bottom working within the W, however perimeter prospects comparable to Kelsey Plum, Sabrina Ionescu and even Caitlin Clark usually take extra time to hit their strides within the superior metrics. When I studied this trend last year, I discovered that — amongst top-five draft picks — rookie facilities averaged a plus-1.5 RAPTOR and rookie forwards a plus-0.6, whereas rookie guards had been below-average at minus-0.5.

So the educational curve for this class was anticipated to be equally steep, however it has begun to search out its approach within the league with comparative ease. Paige Bueckers is on tempo to match Clark and Odyssey Sims (2014) for essentially the most Consensus Wins — a metric that blends the worth estimates of RAPTOR, Win Shares and participant effectivity score — per 44 group video games by a rookie guard since Candice Wiggins in 2008. Sonia Citron is only a fraction of a win behind that tempo, too. Together with Monique Akoa Makani, every of this 12 months’s three most precious rookies to date are guards.

What’s subsequent: If Bueckers follows within the footsteps of Clark to win Rookie of the Yr, will probably be the primary time guards received the dignity in consecutive seasons since Diana Taurasi, Temeka Johnson, Seimone Augustus and Armintie Worth received it 4 straight years between 2004 and 2007. This technology of younger guards is difficult standard knowledge about early expectations for the place.

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Gabby Williams finishes via contact

Gabby Williams finishes via contact, 07/28/2025

The Dream’s dream season

The final time the Dream had both a profitable file or a optimistic level differential was 2018: seven seasons, 5 head coaches and several other roster overhauls in the past for a franchise that went a cumulative 71-133 within the intervening years. However after transferring on from Tanisha Wright to rent Karl Smesko and shuffling around players in the offseason — notably including Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner — Atlanta had the potential to enhance this season. And has it ever.

It ranks third in web (plus-5.3) and offensive scores (plus-106.1), trailing solely the powerhouse Lynx and Liberty in each classes. Regardless of worries that Jones and Griner had been poor matches in Smesko’s system, each have performed essential roles in Atlanta’s enchancment — and the holdovers have been even higher. Allisha Gray has had flashes of being an MVP candidate, Rhyne Howard continues to be one of many W’s greatest two-way guards and Naz Hillmon and Jordin Canada have improved on final 12 months’s RAPTOR scores.

What’s subsequent: Howard’s knee harm, suffered simply earlier than the All-Star break, threatens to sluggish Atlanta’s turnaround season if she’s out for much longer. She nonetheless ranks third on the group in Consensus Wins behind Grey and Jones. However the Dream are 4-3 since shedding Howard, and so they should be ok to at the least snag a top-four seed and have home-court benefit within the first spherical of the playoffs.

Azura Stevens, Gabby Williams have leveled up

Each season, it appears at the least one participant explodes for a career-best efficiency after years of common to good play. (My favourite instance of this was Nneka Ogwumike‘s sudden transformation from Swiss Military knife supporting star to league MVP with historic advanced metrics in 2016.) This 12 months, we now have two such circumstances: Stevens of the Los Angeles Sparks and Williams of the Seattle Storm.

Each had been top-six picks within the 2018 draft however neither averaged double figures in scoring nor posted an estimated RAPTOR above common ranges of their prior seasons. Stevens had 9.4 factors per sport with a minus-0.7 RAPTOR, whereas Williams scored 7.3 PPG with a minus-0.4 RAPTOR. This 12 months, nonetheless, each have dramatically improved on their earlier numbers, with Stevens rising to 14.7 factors per sport with a plus-2.7 RAPTOR and Williams averaging 12.8 factors and plus-5.1 marks, all profession greatest charges.

Based on Consensus Wins, each rank among the many high 20 most precious gamers within the league this season, an enormous degree up for a pair of gamers who had seldom been top-40 performers in any of their earlier WNBA campaigns.

What’s subsequent: For Williams and the Storm, it is about persevering with to play an elevated supporting scoring function subsequent to Skylar Diggins and Ogwumike whereas serving to to anchor Seattle’s elite protection forward of a really possible playoff journey.

As for Stevens and the Sparks, they’re in a extra precarious postseason place, preventing with the Mystics and Valkyries for the ultimate spot within the bracket. Together with her contributions at each ends, Stevens is as essential part of that effort as any L.A. participant.

Largest disappointments

The Caitlin Clark–Angel Reese rivalry has been a nonfactor

Coming off a pair of dueling rookie seasons that helped change the WNBA, Clark and Reese had been anticipated to have one other dramatic 12 months. Clark specifically appeared poised to repair her few remaining flaws and have an MVP-level season in 2025, whereas there have been loads of causes to imagine Reese would change into extra environment friendly whereas persevering with her strong rebounding performances. However that is not how the season has unfolded.

Whereas the opening week matchup between the 2 was watched by 2.7 million individuals, making it the WNBA’s most viewed regular-season contest since 2000, the rivalry itself was no contest — Clark and Indiana rolled over Reese and Chicago in each the outcome and particular person stats. Since then, each have confronted their share of difficulties.

Clark has performed solely 12 of Indiana’s 27 video games since. Given her history of durability, it is stunning how a lot time Clark has missed this 12 months. Her capturing numbers have additionally cratered since final season regardless of enhancements in different areas, comparable to in her assist-to-turnover ratio and defensive metrics. The story of Reese’s season, in the meantime, has been the alternative: She is capturing higher however with worse effectivity elsewhere and an uncharacteristically poor plus/minus, unable to assist the Sky rise above the second-worst web score within the league.

Worse but, Clark was unavailable for all subsequent Fever-Sky video games and each stars missed the July 27 matchup.

What’s subsequent: With Clark nonetheless sidelined and the Sky gaining no traction within the playoff chase, there is just one real looking remaining tilt between the pair on the calendar: Sept. 5 in Indiana. However the fact is that whereas the league retains transferring ahead in an period of recent reputation, the premier rivalry has had no function this season.

The Aces not appear like a dynasty

After wrapping up the 2023 WNBA title — their second championship in as a few years — the Las Vegas Aces ended the playoffs with the best Elo score in league historical past, unseating the legendary 2000 Houston Comets that featured Cynthia Cooper, Sheryl Swoopes and Tina Thompson.

A’ja Wilson and the Aces had reached the mountaintop and performed at fairly probably the best degree the ladies’s sport had ever seen. However two years later, they’ve little resemblance to that greatness. After carrying a league-best plus-15.6 web score and a 1738 Elo when the confetti settled in 2023, their web score is underwater (minus-0.6), and their Elo (1542) has solely just lately climbed again above common after spending many of the previous month beneath 1500.

What modified? Effectively, it isn’t Wilson. She nonetheless ranks among the many top-two gamers within the league, even when a handful of missed video games misplaced her floor within the MVP race towards Napheesa Collier. However the group as an entire has taken large steps again at each ends of the courtroom. Vegas has gone from No. 1 on offense to No. 7 (10.9 factors per 100 possessions worse relative to the league) and from No. 1 to No. 9 on protection (6.3 factors per 100 worse versus the league), resulting in a staggering 17.2-point drop in web effectivity per 100 possessions in two seasons. Jewell Loyd and Chelsea Gray have taken steps again, Plum is with the Sparks and the roster’s depth has eroded. Except for Wilson, Jackie Young and Grey, no different member of the Aces has a optimistic RAPTOR this season.

What’s subsequent: Whereas issues had been trying surprisingly sketchy for a number of moments, the Aces must be in respectable form to return to the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season. However what can they do as soon as they get there? Except for the sting of getting a celebrity of Wilson’s caliber, nothing within the numbers suggests they are a group to concern on the identical degree they had been a pair years in the past. Whereas it’s unknown what former All-Star Cheyenne Parker-Tyus can add if she rejoins the membership earlier than the playoffs, Las Vegas could not have the depth to dominate anymore.

CBA negotiations stay in flux

Whereas all eyes had been presupposed to be on Clark and the remainder of the WNBA’s younger expertise throughout this season of elevated progress, a lot of the eye just lately has as a substitute targeted on the ongoing negotiations for a brand new collective bargaining settlement. After a face-to-face summit between WNBPA representatives and commissioner Cathy Engelbert in Indianapolis final month was reportedly characterised as “wasted” and a “missed alternative,” gamers on the All-Star Recreation wore T-shirts that learn “Pay Us What You Owe Us” whereas warming up. It was one other signal of how a lot work stays on the negotiating desk earlier than the CBA is about to run out on Oct. 31.

Whereas a lockout would not be in both social gathering’s curiosity, at second when the WNBA is experiencing its best ranges of funding and fan curiosity, the thorny questions round how a lot the gamers can stake out from that new progress (together with skyrocketing league income, enlargement charges and franchise valuations) stay on the coronary heart of the tensions. Till the events get nearer to a decision, the off-court enterprise will overshadow a lot of the basketball being performed.

What’s subsequent: Like everybody else, we’ll be watching to see how the looming deadline shapes the discussions. It is truthful to say the subsequent three months shall be as pivotal as any within the league’s historical past.