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Kevin Pelton
Ten video games into their protection of the primary championship in franchise historical past, the New York Liberty look poised to make a run at one other ring.
Though New York’s undefeated begin got here to an finish in Saturday’s 102-88 loss to the Indiana Fever — who acquired 32 factors from Caitlin Clark in her return to the lineup — the Liberty nonetheless put collectively among the best 10-game stretches in league history to start the season.
Regardless of the loss, New York boasts the second-best level differential (plus-15.7) for a WNBA workforce in its first 10 video games, trailing solely the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks (plus-16.5), who began 11-0 en path to the title. The addition of Natasha Cloud has helped fill the void left by Betnijah Laney-Hamilton’s offseason knee surgical procedure, whereas Kennedy Burke stepping up and the return of Marine Johannes has strengthened the Liberty bench.
We take a better have a look at a few of the questions concerning the defending champion, together with the chance New York could possibly be higher than final yr, whether or not there are any weaknesses for the Liberty and the probabilities of a WNBA Finals rematch in opposition to the Minnesota Lynx.
Higher than ever?
At 8-2 on its strategy to a 12-2 begin, New York hardly struggled on the outset in 2024. But final yr’s Liberty workforce wasn’t as dominant as this season’s group has been to date. New York had simply three wins by greater than 13 factors in that stretch. The Liberty matched that by Sport 3 this season and have gained half their video games by at the very least 19 factors, boosting their level differential.
To some extent, that is most likely a perform of schedule. New York has performed a mixed seven video games in opposition to the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Golden State Valkyries and Washington Mystics — 4 of the 5 groups with the lowest over/under win totals at ESPN BET entering the season. ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI) charges the Liberty’s schedule so far the WNBA’s best. As a result of New York cannot play itself, that will not completely even out. The Liberty’s remaining schedule charges fourth best however will nonetheless check them greater than they’ve been to date.
Traditionally, groups which have been as dominant as New York has been to begin the season have translated that into {hardware}. Of the eight earlier groups to outscore opponents by a mean of at the very least 12 factors over the season’s first 10 video games, six gained championships. One of many others (the 2016 Lynx) misplaced to the hotter-starting Sparks, leaving the 2012 Minnesota workforce that misplaced to Indiana within the WNBA Finals as the one workforce to outscore opponents by a lot early and lose to a slower-starting workforce within the playoffs.
In fact, the 2024 Liberty set the bar at a championship. However there have been already causes to suppose coming into this season that New York may probably enhance on final season, when the workforce completed 32-8 and went the space in opposition to the Lynx within the Finals.
Along with returning the workforce’s prime 4 gamers in postseason minutes, the Liberty have been ready so as to add Cloud and produce again Johannes. Cloud has supplied the most effective of Laney-Hamilton’s perimeter protection and the playmaking New York acquired from departed Courtney Vandersloot, main the workforce in each assists and steals. Johannes hasn’t but acquired going as a shooter on a constant foundation however confirmed her potential with six 3-pointers off the bench in a 28-point win over the enlargement Valkyries.
The enlargement draft value the Liberty sixth girl Kayla Thornton, who’s excelling in a beginning function with Golden State. Nonetheless, New York had ready for that by bringing in Burke and buying the rights to Rebekah Gardner. The 2 defensive-minded wings are averaging a mixed 14 factors and capturing higher than 50% on 3s. It is unlikely they’re going to preserve that up, however the additional depth will assist the Liberty to handle the prolonged 44-game common season.
No New York participant is averaging greater than 30.2 minutes, a mark Laney-Hamilton, Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart all exceeded final yr.
Trying to find a weak spot
Reinforcing their dominance, the Liberty lead the WNBA in each offensive and defensive score. Of the eight groups to tug off that double in league historical past, seven gained the championship — all however the 2016 Lynx.
New York ranks within the WNBA’s prime three in six of the eight “4 components” throughout offense and protection, together with No. 1 in efficient subject purpose share (eFG%, which counts 3-pointers as 1.5 subject targets to replicate their added worth) and opponent eFG%.
The glass is the notable exception to the Liberty’s balanced success. New York ranks final in offensive rebounding share and twelfth of 13 groups on the defensive glass. The latter is a change from final season, when the Liberty had the WNBA’s finest defensive rebounding share, and it represents maybe the one greatest concern for Sandy Brondello and the New York teaching employees.
The Liberty are a lot stronger on the defensive glass with main rebounder Jonquel Jones on the courtroom, score higher than league common when she performs however nonetheless down from 2024 with Jones on the ground. That factors to a decline in rebounding from Stewart, who has gone from securing 15% of all accessible rebounds in 2024 — about her profession common — to a career-low 10% up to now in 2025.
Stewart rediscovering her rebounding prowess would go a good distance towards solidifying New York’s one shortcoming.
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Liberty keep excellent behind large video games from Stewart, Ionescu
Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart paved the way because the Liberty defeat the Sky to enhance to 9-0.
Trending towards a Finals rematch?
In addition to they’ve performed, the Liberty are nonetheless a half-game again within the standings of 10-1 Minnesota, the workforce that took New York the space in final yr’s Finals. The 2 groups, each of whom began 9-0, are two losses forward of the remainder of the league.
In that context, I used to be shocked to see {that a} Lynx-Liberty Finals rematch is taken into account much less probably than not at ESPN BET, which gives it plus-205 odds. The percentages indicate a greater likelihood of New York dealing with the sphere than Minnesota.
It is easy to overstate the inevitability of favorites assembly within the Finals, however these odds are longer than what BPI simulations present. The BPI has the Liberty making the Finals 73% of the time and the Lynx 60%, which means they sq. off once more in 45% of matchups.
The more durable query, one we tackled in our recent team grades, is who would possibly knock Minnesota and New York out of the Finals. The BPI favors the 8-3 Atlanta Dream, who aren’t far behind the highest two groups within the standings or by way of level differential (plus-9.0 factors per recreation). Remarkably, the Dream nonetheless have the seventh-best title odds at ESPN BET.
I picked the Fever, who confirmed their potential on Saturday in opposition to the Liberty. New York’s best win additionally got here in opposition to Indiana, bookending Clark’s absence. Indiana boasts a plus-10.2 differential within the 5 video games Clark has performed, albeit fattened by a 35-point win over the Sky within the season opener.
The market nonetheless exhibits religion within the Las Vegas Aces, who’re 5-5 with a minus-2.3 differential after shedding Sunday with A’ja Wilson sidelined for a second consecutive recreation by a concussion. The Aces have the pedigree of championships in 2022 and 2023 and Wilson nonetheless enjoying at an elite degree when wholesome, however they’ve simply two wins all season by greater than 5 factors and have been no match for New York within the season opener.
BPI simulations nonetheless have Las Vegas fourth in championship odds, similar as ESPN BET, however we will have to see the Aces again it up on the courtroom sooner somewhat than later.